hero $1400
villian (presumed donk) $350
4 limpers
hero makes it $22 from BB with :2d: :2s:
UTG calls
villian reraises to $62
hero calls
UTG folds
flop comes :6c: :2h: :8d:
hero checks
villian bets $70 into $140 pot.
hero shoves.
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hero $1400
villian (presumed donk) $350
4 limpers
hero makes it $22 from BB with :2d: :2s:
UTG calls
villian reraises to $62
hero calls
UTG folds
flop comes :6c: :2h: :8d:
hero checks
villian bets $70 into $140 pot.
hero shoves.
bad call preflop
Quote:
Originally Posted by nutsinho
I know sort of but with all the dead money am I not almost getting odds to call?
Option 1: fold
EV=0
Option 2: call
assume: you cannot ever profitably continue postflop without a set
the following is not precise but it should be close
EV= (88.2(-40) + 10.6(399) + 1.2( -328))/100
EV= (-3528+ 4229.4 -393.6)/100
EV= 307.8/100
EV= $3.08 assuming all the money goes in every time you flop a set
under this assumption then i guess its a good call but in practice he may not stack off every time you outflop him
I think unless villian has KK and an A comes on the flop hes felting this every time. You can pretty much solely put him on KK/AA with the preflop action right?Quote:
Originally Posted by nutsinho
yeah stuff like KK on A-high flop hurts, also it takes a particularly daft opponent to actively try to get it all in with AA when the flop is like KK2. Also, a LRR with AK is a possibility and that hurts for obvious reasons as well (youll probably win a large cbet but he wont stick it all in that often). Lastly, I don't know the exact percentages but I may have been a TAD generous in the flopped set condition winning and losing percentages (it may be like 10.5/1.3 instead of 10.6/1.2). All in all I think we have a slightly losing play here, but obviously its not at all a big mistake.