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This is a tough spot.. what does his push mean here? he claims he flopped quads, of course who knows.. he said he put me on AA or KK which was correct.. was he just banking on the thought that I couldn't lay it down?
Villian is 26/8 over a span of 800 hands and is winning about 11 BB / 100 hands. Won % at SD 52%...
Fold or call?
http://www.pokerhand.org/?697328
How can he put u exactly on AA or KK?Kinda weird u didnt even 3bet preflop.Quote:
Originally Posted by Duckslayer2k
I would call this hand though.If he has u beat on this board, so be it.
i call and watch him show 87 or maybe overs.
How the hell am I supposed to 3 bet preflop when he smooth calls my 4xs BB UTG raise? Can he really be bluffing here? I mean I was playing tight and solid on this table, up a little bit from max buy in... he he really ignore my UTG raise and flop bet? A bluff by him here seems unlikely and crazy. I don't know many people who have the balls to count on their opponent folding an overpair in this spot... if he was bluffing that is. It is weird that he would bet so much if he had a monster however... I don't know... more discussionQuote:
Kinda weird u didnt even 3bet preflop.
Admittedly, I don't play much nl ring (mostly tourneys), but the question I have is has anyone here EVER pushed a flop when they flopped quads?
IME, a lot of players will push their OESD on this flop against preflop strength. they'll also slowplay aces like such, but i think OESD more often. the hands that play this board are either really good or mediocre. typically, his line shines mediocre.Quote:
Originally Posted by Duckslayer2k
at least i think you need to call sometimes just so you can learn what people do in curious situations. the last like six times i've called with KK agasint what i believed was AA i was right, but i called anyways because im still learning and want to truly know what it looks and feels like when people make certain moves.
My first instinct on his push was that he had AA... I THINK he may have been banking on me having an overpair as well, and figuring that I would call his push with any overpair thinking he was bluffing... I see no reason for him to push his whole stack in here on a bluff.. it just doesn't make sense why he would risk his stack of 200+ bucks to win a relatively small pot (about 50 bucks when he reraised all in). I just seems too risky. If he is wrong he loses his whole stack.
If he is wrong about his "bluff" in one major aspect he is really screwed .... If I cannot laydown an overpair to a rag board to his push with a bluff or OESD he is screwed. There are quite a few people at this limit who have trouble laying down an overpair to a rag board.... I highly doubt he was paying enough attention to my play to be able to make any type of read on me in this aspect one way or another. I hadn't made any huge laydowns to big reraises earlier at that table.
The part that just confuses me the most is why he would pull any type of bluff with me raising UTG and firing hard...I could easily be holding AA myself... (he could figure I have AK but how could he be so sure one way or another, I would play the two quite similar in this situaiton). This leads me to believe it would be unlikely for him to push an overpair to the board 1010+ ... Anyone see him pushing JJ or 1010 here?
I have heard people talk about how to never fold KK pf in NL ring cash, etc... I believe that is bs... there are some, however rare, situations where I believe it is possible to consider laying down KK PF. Here it seems as though the action has spurned to postflop... there are more hands that beat me here (obviously 66 and 99 are hands he would just smooth call a 4xs BB raise PF)... however.. i wasn't sure if it was worth it to make the huge call in this instance...for such a relatively small pot..
I don't know, maybe it was an instacall and I just made a horrible passive play.
Fnord and other experienced players please comment. Thanks.
Im saying it because he put U on AA or KK.So my question is how can he put u on that because u just make a standard raise utg..Quote:
Originally Posted by Duckslayer2k
Or is ur preflopraise like 2%....?
He probably has 78 and dont want to see later streets...
unless your pfr is like 2-3%, then nothing about your line says its not something like AK making a standard c-bet. i would bet on an oesd or a small overpair here more than anything and make this call.
lol are you serious?Quote:
unless your pfr is like 2-3%, then nothing about your line says its not something like AK making a standard c-bet.
Maybe I'm crazy.. but I THINK that MOST people tighten up their PFR requirements UTG... my PFR % is like 8.5% Overall.. but UTG i'm sure it is around 2 or 3%.... AK would comprise a small fraction of the hands i would normally raise UTG... maybe like 25% of hands raised UTG or whatever, you get the idea... more times than not I"ll have a decent pair here.
So u only raise JJ-AA and AK UTG?Quote:
Originally Posted by Duckslayer2k
:shock:
call every day.
I'd call all day long against an unknown.
That said... I like your analysis and understand a fold with the pot odds being so bad. You're getting about 1.2:1 so you basically have to decide how often do you think he makes this play with a hand that has you crushed (AA, boat, quads) vs. how often he is doing it with worse hands. If you think he has a worse hand than yours less than ~1/2 the time then fold.
I've made similar plays this guy did with lock/near lock hands but I had very good reason to think I'd get paid off. From his stats I'd give him credit for being at least semi-decent and I don't think you can dismiss the idea that he is pushing here with a cinch hand.
Poker is situational. Just by looking at the HH I can say I'd call here but it'd be my standard line. I wasn't at the table at the time or have I played 800 hands against this guy. You were the only one there. Your gut told you that you were beat more often than not and you went with it. Your reason for doing so seems pretty solid to me. Right or wrong I can't fault a fold.
Put it in context.... It's $200NL fullring. You can do very well only raising such a narrow range UTG because the players are so bad. Unless you're a pretty good post-flop player I think it'd would be a mistake to be raising a much wider range UTG because the % of players that would actually notice is so small. The disadvantge you'd be at playing OOP would far outweigh any deception value you'd be gaining.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dislexsik
thanks for the replies everyone, I appreciate it.
Im stupid i tought it was shorthanded.Quote:
Originally Posted by DaNutsInYoEye