Very odd flop situation

Opp is sucky lagg. 25/15. The bet is retarded and I have seen opp play a strong hand like atypical 50nler. Whadya think? Am I favored enough?
PokerStars Game #7573599610: Hold'em No Limit ($0.25/$0.50) - 2006/12/23 - 16:28:24 (ET)
Table 'Tyumenia' 6-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: Lythande71 ($39.50 in chips)
Seat 2: VINNY VT ($71.25 in chips)
Seat 3: Primitiv ($174.45 in chips)
Seat 4: vromen ($34.85 in chips)
Seat 5: redgrape ($88.05 in chips)
Seat 6: mylesk76 ($50 in chips)
Primitiv: posts small blind $0.25
vromen: posts big blind $0.50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to redgrape [Jh Qh]
redgrape: raises $1.50 to $2
mylesk76: folds
Lythande71: folds
VINNY VT: folds
Primitiv: folds
vromen: calls $1.50
*** FLOP *** [9c 6s Th]
vromen: bets $16
redgrape: raises $70.05 to $86.05 and is all-in
vromen: calls $16.85 and is all-in
*** TURN *** [9c 6s Th] [5d]
*** RIVER *** [9c 6s Th 5d] [Kh]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
vromen: shows [Tc Ah] (a pair of Tens)
redgrape: shows [Jh Qh] (a straight, Nine to King)
redgrape collected $66.95 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $69.95 | Rake $3
Board [9c 6s Th 5d Kh]
Seat 1: Lythande71 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: VINNY VT (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: Primitiv (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 4: vromen (big blind) showed [Tc Ah] and lost with a pair of Tens
Seat 5: redgrape showed [Jh Qh] and won ($66.95) with a straight, Nine to King
Seat 6: mylesk76 folded before Flop (didn't bet)

990 games 0.030 secs 33,000 games/sec

Board: 9c 6s Th
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 52.1212 % 52.12% 00.00% { QhJh }
Hand 2: 47.8788 % 47.88% 00.00% { AhTc }

Against his range though:

252,450 games 0.080 secs 3,155,625 games/sec

Board: 9c 6s Th
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 45.5161 % 43.58% 01.94% { QhJh }
Hand 2: 54.4839 % 52.55% 01.94% { 66+, A2s+, K6s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s+, A7o+, K9o+, QTo+, JTo }

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Warpe

990 games 0.030 secs 33,000 games/sec

Board: 9c 6s Th
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 52.1212 % 52.12% 00.00% { QhJh }
Hand 2: 47.8788 % 47.88% 00.00% { AhTc }

---

lol his range is clearly more than AT right?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

lol his range is clearly more than AT right?

---

yeah, just ran it ^^^^

I don't like it. You have no FE and I think a massive overbet like this is rarely a bluff. Since there's so little money in the pot, you're basically getting even odds on your push, and I don't think you're ahead very often.

but how much does a set/two pair play this that way?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

but how much does a set/two pair play this that way?

---

I dunno. I would say... often enough. I would expect this to be two pair or a set trying to get a call by making a weird overbet more often than top pair.

But massive overbets are really player dependent. In my experience they don't always mean "please fold". You had been playing with him though, so if you thought it did, you had to go with your read (or gut). NH.

I learned it the hard way by losing some money that overbets more often mean strong than weak. I certainly wouldn't call that on a draw. You could consider doing it with top pair like KT for example but very rarely. It is very read dependant. On the other hand, you can cosider a gamble cause you didn't have many chips left. I would reload if I had 35 bucks even though it might seem stupid strategy so I probably wouldn't be all in here.

I'd like to see us think bigger.

Do we want to gamble with him? How does winning or losing this hand figure to effect the value of future hands at this table (assume our opponent plans to play for at least another hour.)

I think I like it. at worst it's a small mistake, and great for image and metagame. Even if he folds a trivially small amount of the time (even <10%) then my fuzzy math tells me it's +EV. Against other ranges, you're already good enough (eg, vs AT you're ahead equity-wise).

figure you have the 8 cards to the nuts, a backdoor draw to the effective nuts, and your overcards are sometimes good against some 1p/1p+draw type hands.

Plus, poker gets boring after a while and hands like this are fun sometimes (seriously).

I'm guessing you got berated by half the table which HAS to mean that you played the hand terribly. :)

I like it because guys like him tend to play until they've either been at the table 3+ hours or have gone bust. I really like our position relative to him, so him getting chips is often a loan and showing him we like to gamble too might tip him to a call in the future.

All I'll add to Lukie's assessment is that you must consider rake at these stakes. The house is eating into our equity here pretty hard.