QQ, overpair, facing push

-Villain is 24/5/1.15 so he doesn't raise much
-Given vilain's raising range, should I flat call preflop?
-Given villain's aggression, is this a flop fold? or does it feel like AK suited?


Cryptologic
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.50/$1
5 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $159.59
CO: $90.25
Hero: $106.75
SB: $94.50
BB: $28

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is Button with :qh: :qs:
UTG folds, CO raises to $4, Hero raises to $12, 2 folds, CO calls.

Flop: :4c: :2h: :8h: ($25.5, 2 players)
CO is all-in $78.25, Hero??

If that 5 is over a long term, he's not raising too many hands. So we can assume JJ+, AK, and possibly AQs. I think he has AA/KK and doesn't want to 3 bet to scare you, or he has AhKh. I lay this down and find a better spot. You are either way behind or flipping. Not a good place to put money in.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by AHiltz

If that 5 is over a long term, he's not raising too many hands. So we can assume JJ+, AK, and possibly AQs. I think he has AA/KK and doesn't want to 3 bet to scare you, or he has AhKh. I lay this down and find a better spot. You are either way behind or flipping. Not a good place to put money in.

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I dont agree there. I dont think he is gonna be scared to 3 bet someone who just raised him 4x his bet.

i think you should fold because you are beat most of the time

Quote:

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Originally Posted by AHiltz

If that 5 is over a long term, he's not raising too many hands. So we can assume JJ+, AK, and possibly AQs. I think he has AA/KK and doesn't want to 3 bet to scare you, or he has AhKh. I lay this down and find a better spot. You are either way behind or flipping. Not a good place to put money in.

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Suppose villain has AA/KK. My re-raise could put me on 10's,J's,Q's or AK/AQ. Given that my range includes over cards, wouldn't villain want to check to me and let me bet, before pushing?

Seems villain's line would get no money out of me when I had AK/AQ...

Code:

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Board: 4c 2h 8h
Dead: 

equity (%)          win (%)        tie (%)
Hand  1:        38.9672 %          36.58%        02.39%      { QhQs }
Hand  2:        61.0328 %          58.65%        02.39%      { JJ+, AhKh

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This is close, espcially since I think he's more likely to shove the JJ and the draw than AA/KK. Flip a coin?

i dont think this type of player just shoves the draw though....they are passive

You are smoked.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by gabe

i dont think this type of player just shoves the draw though....they are passive

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yah this crossed my mind... when I put him on AK of hearts..

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Galapogos

You are smoked.

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Yah.. I think this is a big leak. Not folding overpairs to what seem like huge overbets..

So when a 24/5/1.15 player raises preflop, am I suddenly playing J's,Q's only for set value? Should I just be calling preflop, instead of re-raising?

no dont play just for sets. in general, raise and keep betting until they play back at you, because thats when you are beat.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by AHiltz

II lay this down and find a better spot.

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:(