NL50 QQ facing a check-raise on the flop

Villain was something like 27/10 over 20 hands, no reads. His check-minraise on the flop really smells like a set, but can I fold this without a read? River is obviously an easy call given the pot odds. Probably pretty standard, but I'd just like to know what to do on this kind of flop in the future.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

MP3 ($64.10)
CO ($20.05)
Hero ($69.55)
SB ($51.10)
BB ($48.25)
UTG ($119.45)
UTG+1 ($31.40)
MP1 ($29)
MP2 ($46.70)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif, Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif.
2 folds, MP1 calls $0.50, 1 fold, MP3 raises to $2, 1 fold, Hero raises to $6, 2 folds, MP1 folds, MP3 calls $4.

Flop: ($13.25) 7http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif, 2http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif, Thttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif (2 players)
MP3 checks, Hero bets $7.5, MP3 raises to $15, Hero calls $7.50.

Turn: ($43.25) 4http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif (2 players)
MP3 checks, Hero checks.

River: ($43.25) 8http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif (2 players)
MP3 bets $12, Hero calls $12.

Final Pot: $67.25

I think he's got another overpair (JJ,KK, maybe even QQ but not a set or AA). With AA, I'd expect a bet on the turn or maybe a reraise PF instead of the call. With a set, I'd expect a smooth call on the flop and a check/raise on the turn. If I were him, I'd put you on an overpair based on your PF reraise and flop bet so the smooth call on the flop seems reasonable for the set.

I would rule out KK,AA for this guys as he doesn't re-raise you pre-flop.
Almost everyone at 50NL woulod re-raise with those hands. JJ is a posibility and maybe even AT if he is a loose player.
He could have a set, but I don't know why he wouldn't bet on the turn. I would've liked to see a bet on the turn by you to see how he reacts to it.
I think your probably beating him here. He might have bet the river thinking you were showing weakness with your check on the turn.

I like how you played it. The flop coulda been a set, or some sorta "see where I'm at" hand like 99, AT, JJ, etc...but most likely a set would have bet really strong on the turn or river after seeing you have a hand on the flop. I'd discount AA as well because of pre flop, and KK/JJ are possible but JJ more likely than KK.

Nh. I could see a minraise on the river as he's gonna have to call with JJ/AT, but I think I just call myself as well (being the weak tight nit that I am).

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Chris4tw

I would rule out KK,AA for this guys as he doesn't re-raise you pre-flop. Almost everyone at 50NL would re-raise with those hands.

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I don't rule anything out against a stranger. That being said, this is the type of hand you are destined to lose value on if you don't make a read one way or the other. Acting passive sucks valuewise. In general, min raises are bad news. Some people do it with weak hands like vulnerable top pairs, or even low/mid pocket pairs on boards they think you missed.

Make the following reads to save/make money in this spot...

Is my opponent solid: How have they been playing? Have they lost any big pots with bad/silly showdowns? Are they seeking cheap showdowns with non premium winners?. That one is very important. A player like this is not going to raise you without a very good reason like A) They have a good hand or B) You're a weak little nit that folds too easy.

How did they play a big flop hand in the past: Does this opponent like to Jam or slowplay a big hand. These are two distinctly different approaches.

There are two basic types of players..

Player 1: Makes big flops and starts building a pot fast, but acts generally passive until you show weakness with a hand that's possibly a weak winner like TT on a rag board. They're not going to committ themselves easily with this kind of hand.

Player 2: Makes big raises when they're weak or bluffing, but waits until late streets to ambush you with truly strong hands.

I smell Jacks. nh.

Villain had a set of sevens. I almost folded on the flop, because I can't really see him raising with a worse hand here as I've already told him I have a big pair. Luckily I did get a cheap showdown though.

wow he had a set of 7's? I was gonna say you probably should raise the river, even though i would be too pussy to.

You did remember to take a note on him that he likes to bet and raise weakly with strong hands, right?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Rondavu

I don't rule anything out against a stranger. That being said, this is the type of hand you are destined to lose value on if you don't make a read one way or the other. Acting passive sucks valuewise. In general, min raises are bad news. Some people do it with weak hands like vulnerable top pairs, or even low/mid pocket pairs on boards they think you missed.

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Even if you don't rule out KK/AA, I'm sure it is VERY low on your probility of possible hand villian has.
How many people play KK/AA like that at 50NL? I would say few and far between, so I would assume an unknown plays AA/KK like the other 98% of 50NL players.
I wouldn't stack off here, since the set is a real possibility and villian is an unknown. Betting the turn would've made it clear what type of hand he had though. It turned out that is what the villian had, so the OP saved some money by the villian's bad play.

I don't think KK/AA is unlikely. He cut off the action preflop, so he knew he'd be headsup. Some people may slowplay there.

@Rondavu - NP, I"ll have to chew on that one

@OP - I play it the same except you're supposed to spike a Q on the turn

he's loosing money long term with that line

lol opp made this so easy for you. He sucks at getting value. Lololol at turn check, nice check behind btw.