$200nl JTs

villain is 31/11/0.9 over 70...do i raise his flop bet here? and also, he bets to small on the turn but its possible that im drawing to 1 out...wat to do?

Party Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $1/$2
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $200
UTG+1: $223.17
Hero: $200
Button: $237
SB: $640.51
BB: $228.80

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is CO with J:spade: T:spade:
UTG calls, UTG+1 raises to $8, Hero calls, 4 folds.

Flop: 2:heart: K:spade: 9:spade: ($21, 2 players)
UTG+1 bets $15, Hero calls.

Turn: 9:heart: ($51, 2 players)
UTG+1 bets $15.

First I'd fold pre-flop. Then would raise flop to ~$50 and call a push. If flop bet was called I would obvioulsy bet again if I hit or check behind if I missed.

Yeah, w/ the gutshot + FD I'd raise that flop to around $55. As played, the turn bet is really weak and I think you could probably take it down w/ a strong raise. Otherwise, yeah it's a call including slight implied odds.

preflop is fine, but i would play this flop very aggressively. make a potsized raised and push the turn if he calls.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by gabe

preflop is fine, but i would play this flop very aggressively. make a potsized raised and push the turn if he calls.

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push? how often do you do this and when is it more correct to take the free card here?

i dont mean push the turn here (after flop goes villian bet - hero call), i meant if hero raises the flop and then villian calls. for the most part, when i see strong draws, i just cross my fingers and play it like a set whether it hits on turn or not.

BUT this line sucks against calling stations. if you can be pretty sure they will pay you off then free card is alot better. at $200nl it might be a mistake to assume an unknown villian can fold TP, and if it is then turn push is probably bad.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by gabe

i dont mean push the turn here (after flop goes villian bet - hero call), i meant if hero raises the flop and then villian calls. for the most part, when i see strong draws, i just cross my fingers and play it like a set whether it hits on turn or not.

BUT this line sucks against calling stations. if you can be pretty sure they will pay you off then free card is alot better. at $200nl it might be a mistake to assume an unknown villian can fold TP, and if it is then turn push is probably bad.

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totally agree with all this

Quote:

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gabe wrote:
preflop is fine, but i would play this flop very aggressively. make a potsized raised and push the turn if he calls.
push? how often do you do this and when is it more correct to take the free card here?

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i would play a set like this too so checking behind on the turn is a dead give away unless i know for sure my opponent has a tp hand that will bet the river and maybe call a raise on a blank river vs my set (i.e semi-calling station)
Also, if opponent is going to stack off on these sorts of boards with a one pair hand we are going to wtfbwn him anyway when we flop hands that beat tp or are a statistical favourite vs tp.

when you play your sets like your combo draws on the flop, you increase variance, but you can't be scared of that. you just have to be rolled for it. most importantly, you start getting paid more often when you're ahead, and get more folds when you're not. and hey, nothing wrong w/ a suckout along the way to help bail you out from time to time.

imagine you called PF w/ 99 instead. how would you play a set of nines in that spot on the flop? play this hand more or less the same. long term it will work out for the best. better to get all in on flop than on turn, where he might feel 'pot committed' for a crying call while slightly ahead w/ TPWK.

How often is this guy folding to cbets postflop? If its over 50 I am going to reraise this preflop a good portion of the time.

As played I agree with what gabe said, play this hand aggressively