hi

$5+$1 (real money), hand #858,278,722
Qualifier to $30+3 Multi Table Tournament, 16 Aug 2006 12:26 AM
View Previous | Next hand for this table.
Seat 1: CammyG ($3,925 in chips)
Seat 2: anttiz ($2,840 in chips)
Seat 5: BIG_AL2005 ($2,030 in chips)
Seat 7: Sandie37 ($1,840 in chips)
Seat 8: Kiwicd ($1,305 in chips)
Seat 9: RIPJohnGotti [8H,8D] ($4,785 in chips)
Seat 10: darkmoon1 ($2,225 in chips)
ANTES/BLINDS
Kiwicd posts blind ($75), RIPJohnGotti posts blind ($150).

PRE-FLOP
darkmoon1 folds, CammyG folds, anttiz folds, BIG_AL2005 folds, Sandie37 bets $400, Kiwicd folds, RIPJohnGotti bets $2,000, Sandie37 calls $1,440 and is all-in.

FLOP [board cards JS,JD,2D ]


TURN [board cards JS,JD,2D,10D ]


RIVER [board cards JS,JD,2D,10D,5D ]


SHOWDOWN
RIPJohnGotti shows [ 8H,8D ]
Sandie37 shows [ AH,JC ]
RIPJohnGotti wins $310, RIPJohnGotti wins $3,755.


Opinons.


Either push fold preflop.

Lean towards folding because of the risk/reward of 2 overs IE flipping.?

Looks good to me. Could be a standard button steal from sandie. Sure you may be flipping but add in the fold equity and you're going to be folding out a lot of hands against which you're flipping. Plus if you lose this you still have a nice stack. Nh.

The only situation I'd think about folding this would be if button had been super super tight but even tight players open up at this blind level if they have any clue what they're doing.

Sandie must have gone berserk in the chatbox after his/her flopped trips top kicker got runner runnered by your 8:diamond: (ONLINE POKER IS SOOOO RIGGED!).

I can fault her for calling, i showed down premiums all game ak aa.


I feel i coulda folded preflop if I didnt wanna risk another 2k on a toss if NOT dominated.

66-99 are very hard to play at this blind

Quote:

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Originally Posted by ripjohngotti

I can fault her for calling, i showed down premiums all game ak aa.

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She is actually getting the right price to call with AJo, she's getting 2.6 to 1 on the call and unless she puts you on JJ+/AQ+ she has to call.

This is actually an ICM problem (I don't have time to do the calcs right now) but my guess is that even from a $EV perspective she has to call your push.

No way she is putting you on a range like QQ+/AK here, depending on how aggressively you'd been raising preflop if I had been her I would say your range is more like 77+/AJ+, maybe ATs.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by taipan168

She is actually getting the right price to call with AJo, she's getting 2.6 to 1 on the call and unless she puts you on JJ+/AQ+ she has to call.

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I take this back, it's not right, out of curiosity I did the ICM calcs for sandie:
- $EV fold = $4.22
- $EV call and win = $9.49
- $EV call and lose = $0

So Sandie needs to be 44% to win against your range to make this +EV. If she puts you on 77+/AT+ she is 39.6% against your range so has to fold. It only gets worse the tighter your actual range would be. Even if you flipped your 88 face up the call would be only just marginal since she is 44% to win against 88.