Questionable play....

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08-10-2006, 12:41 AM
evoman

Questionable play....

OK fist I should give you a lil history on this play as it afected my decision. I play at a local B and m casino on a regular basis. The vilin in this have I have busted many times and know almost inutitivly what he is holding. Ok its the first level of a MMT with aroun 140 players. I pick up 9h9s #2 limps villin in #5 limps and the button limps. I raise 4 times the blind. BB folds #2 calls and villin calls the button folds. The flop comes Js 8c 7s. I bet out about 7/8 of the pot (just to mix in with pot type bets) #2 calls The villin pushes all in. I guesse I forgot to metion we all were very even in chips as this is like the 5th hand played so I have him just covered (200 chips). I know by the way he bet and the history that he doesnt have the hand he representing and just wants me to go away. I also know that if I call #2 will fold (played with him before as well. So I end up calling after mulling the whole thing over a min. As I thought #2 folds and the villin turns over Ks 10S and makes his flush and hits his K on the river.

My question is. Even though I knew I had the best hand and knew he was on the draw should I have layed doun my hand? If so please explain why so I can correct this leak.
08-10-2006, 05:06 AM
flotu

Well, if he usually makes this play with two small cards I like your play, but even if you have the best hand it could be very, very marginal if he has a good draw. Sometimes he actually has to have a hand too, right? In this case it pretty much was a coinflip.

I think this might be too marginal considering the coordinated board and the possibility your opponent has a very strong draw. How can you be so sure # is not slowplaying a made straight? does he always raise his good hands?
08-10-2006, 05:50 AM
Anosmic

Leaving aside your reads etc and coming right down to the cards you are the favourite in this situation:

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1890010
pokenum -h 9h 9s - ks ts -- js 8c 7s
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Js 7s 8c
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
9s 9h 517 52.22 467 47.17 6 0.61 0.525
Ks Ts 467 47.17 517 52.22 6 0.61 0.475

If this was a cash game it'd be an insta-call because in the long-run this call will make money.
But an MTT requires that you take in a few other factors, especially to do with stage of the tournament (stack size compared with blinds is important). How much have you committed.

In this situation it's again an easy call. If you bust out now you lucked out... it'll happen. Wait for the next tournament.
If you win you'll have more than doubled up and it'll give you great chances in the tournament.

Later on in a tournament it's probably better to avoid coinflips that can bust you out unless you're running short on chips. Around the Bubble you probably don't want to be calling here.

The only other thing I can say is that pre-flop if you really want to raise 99 then you'll probably need to raise more. 4xbb is fine if you're first into the pot, but with three limpers in your raise probably needs to be more like 5-6xbb at least. The limpers here are getting good odds for their 3bbs.
08-12-2006, 06:08 PM
evoman

Quote:

Originally Posted by Anosmic

Leaving aside your reads etc and coming right down to the cards you are the favourite in this situation:

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1890010
pokenum -h 9h 9s - ks ts -- js 8c 7s
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Js 7s 8c
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
9s 9h 517 52.22 467 47.17 6 0.61 0.525
Ks Ts 467 47.17 517 52.22 6 0.61 0.475

If this was a cash game it'd be an insta-call because in the long-run this call will make money.
But an MTT requires that you take in a few other factors, especially to do with stage of the tournament (stack size compared with blinds is important). How much have you committed.

In this situation it's again an easy call. If you bust out now you lucked out... it'll happen. Wait for the next tournament.
If you win you'll have more than doubled up and it'll give you great chances in the tournament.

Later on in a tournament it's probably better to avoid coinflips that can bust you out unless you're running short on chips. Around the Bubble you probably don't want to be calling here.

The only other thing I can say is that pre-flop if you really want to raise 99 then you'll probably need to raise more. 4xbb is fine if you're first into the pot, but with three limpers in your raise probably needs to be more like 5-6xbb at least. The limpers here are getting good odds for their 3bbs.

Thanks I knew there was a mistake here some where. Now I just need to figure out if limping or raiseing in this spot is the most profitable or corect play.
08-12-2006, 06:11 PM
evoman

Quote:

Originally Posted by flotu

Well, if he usually makes this play with two small cards I like your play, but even if you have the best hand it could be very, very marginal if he has a good draw. Sometimes he actually has to have a hand too, right? In this case it pretty much was a coinflip.

I think this might be too marginal considering the coordinated board and the possibility your opponent has a very strong draw. How can you be so sure # is not slowplaying a made straight? does he always raise his good hands?

Almost always and yes he would have rasied because of the flush draw that was out. If he just calls with a made straight he is giveing the flush odds to call. And I know reads are not perfect but I could tell he did even want to call my first bet, then while I was thinking I could tell he was folding, not trying to act like folding but he realy was going to fold.