100NL Float this flop with AKs?

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08-03-2006, 12:08 AM
nogenius

100NL Float this flop with AKs?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

MP2 ($79.50)
MP3 ($24)
CO ($57)
Button ($29.15)
SB ($41.80)
BB ($144.50)
UTG ($105)
UTG+1 ($138.20)
Hero ($100)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with Khttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif, Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif.
2 folds, Hero raises to $3.75, 4 folds, SB calls $3.25, 1 fold.

Flop: ($8.50) Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif, Thttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif, 2http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif (2 players)
SB bets $4, Hero ???

---

SB is an unknown player, no HUD stats yet.

What's your move here?
08-03-2006, 12:22 AM
DaNutsInYoEye

No. I raise or fold. That donk bet gets raised more often than not though.
08-03-2006, 12:31 AM
Fnord

AceKing no g00t.

I think calling isn't a big mistake. I might pay the $1 or so of -EV here just to let him know that he's going to have to fire two barrels here.
08-03-2006, 01:30 AM
Renton

pitch it
08-03-2006, 01:46 AM
Ravageur

wow, can't believe you would pitch this so easily. I raise this or call, and almost never fold. most of the time he's just donking out his 2nd pair to see if you missed and will fold to a reraise. You can also assume that your 10 outs here are good...

I call or raise.
08-03-2006, 02:04 AM
KoRnholio

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ravageur

You can also assume that your 10 outs here are good...

If the villain's hand is something like KQ or AT you could be in for a world of hurt if you hit your one pair draw...
08-03-2006, 02:11 AM
gabe

this seems to be an easy raise
08-03-2006, 02:33 AM
Lukie

Everyone note SB's stack size, as it is enormously important in this hand.

I don't really know what I would do here. I think all options have their merits, and I want to raise, but stack sizes make it such that I will probably just settle for a call. It's a tiny mistake at worst.

If we were much deeper, I'd like to make a raise here, but then again, I probably do so at an exploitable level in similar spots.
08-03-2006, 02:37 AM
Fnord

Yeah, it's a short-buy idiot telling us he caught a piece of this. I don't see a point in trying to push him off of it nor building a pot so we can start another thread when we catch an Ace or King.
08-03-2006, 09:22 AM
Renton

why call when we are almost certainly behind?

I can see why one would raise, but given his stack it seems like a bad idea.

I just said fold because it seems like the least bad of the three options.
08-03-2006, 09:57 AM
Rondavu

KT, AT, KQ and AQ are all killing you on that flop. Unknown shortstack. Just fold and stack him soon.
08-03-2006, 11:44 AM
Miffed22001

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rondavu

KT, AT, KQ and AQ are all killing you on that flop. Unknown shortstack. Just fold and stack him soon.

actually id call here considering if we hit the next card we should get all his stack in and calling $4 with ~$40 behind isnt so bad.
If he was full stacked id certainly raise in this stars game
08-03-2006, 12:30 PM
bair

fold...bad implied odds, outs probably arent live, you are behind
08-03-2006, 02:35 PM
Rondavu

Quote:

Originally Posted by bair

fold...bad implied odds, outs probably arent live, you are behind
08-03-2006, 02:37 PM
Fnord

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rondavu

KT, AT, KQ and AQ are all killing you on that flop.

You forgot about the monster Q4s or T6off.
08-03-2006, 02:41 PM
Miffed22001

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rondavu

Quote:

Originally Posted by bair

fold...bad implied odds, outs probably arent live, you are behind

if a jack falls we take his stack imo, not adding that we could play QQ/Tt this way too and push the turn.
Certainly its boarderline, i just dont agree a shorty wont stack off here if he has two pair or better.
08-03-2006, 02:42 PM
holdin2

I love it when a bunch of big FTR names all get in on a post with differing opinions. Makes us simpletons think (brain hurts).
08-03-2006, 02:55 PM
Renton

i don't like raising donk bets with air on QT flops

i am nitty like that
08-03-2006, 03:15 PM
lambchopdc

You've invested 3.75 bbs into this pot. Villian only has 40 behind. At BEST you have 10 outs, more likely then not you have 7. If you raise here and he calls, you've committed him to the pot while he is holding the best hand. You're an 11:1 shot to make a hand that we know is good, if we turn a J and get allin we're barely breaking even on implied odds. When you count in the other possibilities it probably averages this whole hand out to being slightly -ev or maybe break even. Especially since we have zero idea if we have any folding equity. Pitch it, unless you like variance. (BTW this all changes if he's sitting on a 100bb stack)