JTs in BB - 2 pair on flop

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
9 players

MP3 = 20% VPIP, 6% PFR
CO = 22% VPIP, 5.7% PFR (small sample)

Stack sizes:
UTG: $55.55
UTG+1: $66.60
MP1: $85.50
MP2: $49.20
MP3: $66.50
CO: $18.35
Button: $59.55
SB: $25
Staresy: $79.25

Pre-flop: (9 players) Staresy is BB with J:heart: T:heart:
UTG calls, 3 folds, MP3 calls, CO calls, Button folds, SB calls, Staresy checks.

Flop: T:diamond: 4:heart: J:club: ($2.5, 5 players)
SB checks, Staresy bets $2, UTG folds, MP3 raises to $5, CO raises all-in $17.85, SB folds, Staresy ......

auto-calls?
pushes?
folds?!?

hmmmmmm....at first i wanted to say fold.....but then i realized a short stack pushed all in...so the only real question you have to ask your self is, did mp3 flop a set? or did he limp w/ something like a-j or j-k, or even k-q.

is this short stack a donk or is he just set hunting? does he push w/ strong draws?

w/out reads i say screw it and push.

fold...most likely he was limping with 44, and imo, you can't call him down with 2 pair after he re-re-raised...tough decision though.

I don't play full ring, so maybe my opinion is worthless, but I'm never folding here really.

What do minraises say?
"I have what I think are the nuts and want the pot sweetened, and I don't think you can resist 3:1 on your call here".
What do 3 bets usually mean?
"I have your ass totally kicked come get some bahahaha" OR
"I think your gonna fold here to my strength"
What do push overbets say?
"I have outs (Put him on Q9 for the OESD) but I'd be quite content to take it down here."

The raise from $2 to $5 is what I worry about though and it seems deliberate to be neither of the minraise or 3 bet. I use this "2.5 bet" when I have a set quite often when I put the villain on TPTK or whatever is a good hand but a beaten hand.

I'd fold.

I'd call that (and probably lose). Only one of them can have 44, if that, which is a strong possibility. Otherwise you're infront.

that's crazy action, but as far as mp3, renton made a point one time i hadn't really thought about on a similar hand, which is the average fish isn't raising a set on the flop. i think i call, hope for mp3 to call (but fold if he pushes over the call), and lead the turn.

takesix, id use your reasoning more if it was the turn where passive players tend to wait to make moves with strong hands. on the flop it could just as easily be, "i think i might be ahead but im not sure so ill just raise a little."

Yeah I agree there it's not a threatening board so i would expect a set to smooth call.

Insta-call if MP3 isn't left to act behind you... I think I fold here, as painful as it is. Tough decision.

push

average joe doesnt play a set this fast on that flop. Short stack may have a set but i seriously doubt it.
Your either way ahead or putting a draw to the point where he cant call, but has invested anyway.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Miffed22001

push

average joe doesnt play a set this fast on that flop. Short stack may have a set but i seriously doubt it.
Your either way ahead or putting a draw to the point where he cant call, but has invested anyway.

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I dunno. MP3 is only calling your push if he has a set, which I agree is unlikely, but not impossible. So you're risking $60 to win $27, and you're not getting the pot if MP3 folds, you're just isolating... seems pretty risky.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by mulhollanddrive

Yeah I agree there it's not a threatening board so i would expect a set to smooth call.

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I'm not saying I want to fold here (I really have no idea what I want to do to be perfectly honest), but I disagree with this. Lots of players would just call in that spot with a set. But others (myself included) would raise more often to try to build a pot, not to mention all the possible straight draw there are on a JTx flop.