AK - TPTK on paired board

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07-10-2006, 02:29 PM
Silly String

AK - TPTK on paired board

Villian is not terribly memorable, but his stats are 37V$IP/6PFR/2PFA. He was stacked 15 minutes ago with trips when Opp sucked out to a boat with a lower kicker. He show in the turn he is willing to go all the way with this hand, and I couldn't rule out a 9 with 37% V$IP, what do you think? What are the odds he is AK-AJ, KK, QQ vs. Any9? I am really trying to improve my laydowns with TPTK and 2 pair latety since they are one of my biggest leaks. Suggestions here?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (4 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

SB ($51.73)
BB ($44.15)
Hero ($85.10)
Button ($57.35)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Khttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif, Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif. SB posts a blind of $0.25.
Hero raises to $2, 2 folds, BB calls $1.50.

Flop: ($4.25) 9http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif, 9http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif, Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $3.5, BB raises to $10, Hero calls $6.50.

Turn: ($24.25) 5http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif (2 players)
BB bets $15, Hero folds.
07-10-2006, 03:57 PM
aislephive

In a heads up pot like this, I'm not getting away from TPTK here. I would call him down here on every street.
07-10-2006, 04:05 PM
bode

i think im calling a $15 bet here. Given the stats, villain has AT-AQ more often than a 9.
07-10-2006, 04:09 PM
Renton

If you are going to make a firm (albeit weaktight) decision to fold here, just do it on the flop. It isn't like he's raising here with a draw, and it isn't like you are going to improve to the best hand on the turn, when you know he's going to make a bet that you are going to have trouble calling.
07-10-2006, 04:50 PM
Silly String

Shit, I was afraid that would be the concensus. I just pissed away 12BB. I personally think I ran into a more aggressive AK. Does the 37% V$IP lend itself to a fold? I just started using PTracker and I am trying to improve my quantitative reads. How high would V$IP have to be to consider folding this hand here?
07-10-2006, 05:39 PM
natdang

Don't go solely on $VPIP, but based only on the strength of your hand, and as played, I think the river deserves a call.

Renton brought up a good point, however. If you're gonna fold, do so on flop, because your hand will not improve by seeing another card.
07-10-2006, 05:43 PM
zenbitz

Why would he c/r a 9 here? I mean, if he knows you can fold TP on this board why blow you out of the water like this?
07-10-2006, 05:52 PM
Silly String

He doesn't know me. We have only played 50 hands together. He may have taken my bet as a c-bet, which I do a lot.

I was hoping he would check to me on the turn so we could control the size of the pot. Then I could call a reasonable river bet. His $15 bet suggests that he is ready to get it all in, and I thought I would find a better spot. Too weak tight, eh?
07-10-2006, 07:05 PM
zenbitz

Quote:

Originally Posted by Silly String

He doesn't know me. We have only played 50 hands together. He may have taken my bet as a c-bet, which I do a lot.

But why check/raise a c-bet with a 9? You are repping an ace - WHICH HE CRUSHES! If you don't have an ace... he crushes you WORSE!

If villian has a 9 - he should lead here, and hope you raise him with a big ace, or call bullshit on him with a pocket pair. He can then call your raise... and check/raise you on the turn, and now you probably can't escape.

So, either he's a moron, or incredibly tricky, or doesn't have a 9. Of these, the third seems most likley (with "moron" a close second).
07-10-2006, 07:13 PM
bdawg56kg

Quote:

Originally Posted by Renton

If you are going to make a firm (albeit weaktight) decision to fold here, just do it on the flop. It isn't like he's raising here with a draw, and it isn't like you are going to improve to the best hand on the turn, when you know he's going to make a bet that you are going to have trouble calling.

This isn't necessarily true. You have position, so you can see what he does on the turn. Some ppl will c/r these kinds of flops and just give up if called.

As played, I'd prob push the turn.

Quote:

Originally Posted by zenbitz

But why check/raise a c-bet with a 9?

Because it's very difficult to get away from TPTK/TPGK if you are hero. If hero has air, he likely isn't putting in another cent if his c-bet is called. In a lot of situations (depending on player), a c/r is not necessarily a sign of strength. This is why I like to c/r sets on very dry boards against thinking players, because they figure that is the one hand you wouldn't have when you c/r.