Re: C-Betting Profitability
Quote:
Originally Posted by Toadstool
I've been thinking about how profitable c-betting really is lately (when you miss the flop). I often used to find myself having to keep reloading 10BB's frequently due to preflop raises and c-betting where my opponant wouldnt fold. This adds up, and can hugely offset stacking somebody for 100BB, say you stack someone once in an hour, but fail with 5 CB's in a row, thats only a net gain of 50BB, this canseriously impact your long term winnings. I was trying to do a little math to see how often the opponant needed to fold to make C-Betting profitable.
This is overly simplistic and flawed for a lot of reasons. But if the large majority of your c-bets are getting played back at, you should only make them when you make a hand. Of course you need to keep in mind that perhaps the only reason you stacked the one guy is because you are betting at every flop...
Quote:
You raise 4BB, assume SB calls, pot is 9BB, and you flop nothing.
Scenario 1:
after the flop, you raise 7 BB, opponant fold and you gain 5BB.
Scenario 2:
You raise to 7BB, Opponant makes it 21, you fold and lose 11BB
In this situation you are risking 11BB to win 5BB, you would need your opponant to fold almost 70% of the time to make this move break even!
you are counting preflop action as well. Like you are mixing that somebody calls preflop AND you miss the flop, mixing the 2 streets together. I can say with certainty that againts most players, when they call your raise from the SB, YOU are getting the best of it here preflop in general. Playing with position and initiative is very easy compared to playing without them. So if we are just looking at the post-flop c-bet, say you bet 3/4 pot, that bet only has to be successful 3/7 times to be profitable! And heads up, in position, it almost always is. Of course this needs to be compared to the EV of checking, but this is usually a very standard bet here.
Quote:
Obviously you need to bet when you miss sometimes, so people cant read you so easily, but I have lately been just check/folding around 75% of the time on missed flops (If I miss, I will usually bet if the middle card is an ace or a certain suit I use to randomise my bluffing)
There is nothing wrong with check/folding when you miss the flop, and if you don't do it with some degree of regularity, you open yourself up to exploitation from solid regulars to loose passive donkeys alike.
Quote:
Also, To offset people betting every time you check after being the preflop raiser, mix in some more Check raises and slowplays to stop people playing back at you - say 25% of the time if you hit.
really situation dependant, but I don't see anything wrong with this idea. In general though, I try to conceal the strength of my hand through agression, but thats an entirely different discussion in itself.
Re: C-Betting Profitability
It is much more valuable to c-bet most missed flops (against 1 or 2 opponents) and have people think you are full of shit when you actually do flop that monster. There are also alot of nits today that wont ever call on the flop unless they have the nuts... These players fold way more than 70% of the time.
If you check behind alot when you miss the flop, they're going to be less likely to pay you off when you actually do hit and show strength. This is more devastating to you than losing your c-bet, because you're potentially giving up 100+ BBs to save a couple.
Not to mention, you are giving them free cards, and even if all you have is two overcards, you're still ahead of someone with a missed suited connector or dominated overcards. Just because you didn't pair up on the flop doesn't mean you are behind. You need to bet your hand so they don't pair up or pick up a draw for free and take down the pot that you used to be in control of. If they share one of your overs but have a worse kicker, you could potentially win even more money from them if that card does hit and the pot is already raised.
Dont get me wrong, there are some situations where you should not c-bet, but they only come up when facing many opponents or if you have a good read (such as, a donkey playing tons of hands that will auto-call if he catches any piece of a flop, and the flop texture is one that he probably at least has a draw if not a pair).
For the most part though, after you've raised preflop, against 1 or 2 opponents who check to you in position... You should be c-betting.
Aggression is rewarded in poker, being passive is not.
Re: C-Betting Profitability
Quote:
Originally Posted by Werddown
If they share one of your overs but have a worse kicker, you could potentially win even more money from them if that card does hit and the pot is already raised.
Don't forget this could easily be reversed too.
Re: C-Betting Profitability
Quote:
Originally Posted by jackvance
Don't forget this could easily be reversed too.
Not as easily as you think if you play tight.
I'm hardly ever out-kicked with top pair, and if I am they usually do something to indicate it like re-raising. The average fish willl often just call you down with TPWK and give their money away. Kicker is not in their vocabulary.
My point was, even though you might not have a made hand on the fop, chances are if you play TAGG you'll either take the pot down or end up having the best hand at showdown a good percentage of the time... Enough to make it worth betting on the flop.
You still have to lay hands down when people are showing strength at you... But that doesn't mean you should avoid betting the flop alltogether for fear of someone calling or raising.
