Here's my PT stats .. good, better, and ugly .. what say ye?

I recently posted about a severe downswing and it was suggested it was more to poor play. I have posted here (for all to see) my PT stats. There are 3 parts. Part 1 was my move from 20K hands at 25PL to 25NL FR (stats are all 25NL). Part 2 is the first 8 days of June. During that period my goal was to reduce my VP$IP and raise my PFR%. The last 8 days are Part 3 ... the disaster. I am open to any and all comments.

Note, I take my poker pretty seriously as I love to compete. I love to learn how to improve. But poker is NOT my life's desire. I enjoy it when I'm winning and have been pretty good during those times when the things aren't good. But this latest downturn just sucks.

http://static.flickr.com/75/170022200_82d23491d3.jpg

http://static.flickr.com/49/170022201_ed9afaca78.jpg

http://static.flickr.com/62/170022203_30f823264c.jpg

http://static.flickr.com/51/170037016_db1cab3ff9.jpg

http://static.flickr.com/70/170022206_2b85334332.jpg

http://static.flickr.com/78/170037014_33c9e9cf21.jpg

vpip looks too high esp for full ring IMO
vol put in from sb especially. I play a lot of sooted junk when give the chance and mines only just 30%.
Aggression factor looks weak, but that may be fr style, not sure.
raise more
apart from that the 17k hands looks fine imo.

The last selection shows a win@showdown drop of over 10%. Your either calling down a lot with worse hands or its just horrible varaiance to lose ~$300 (10buy ins?)
Ive seen that swing enough to know it happens but over a 2k selection id be tempted to say you prob made some mistakes unless you just lost 4 or 5 80/20s or something which does tend to happen all at once.

Your W$WSF went down 4% from previous samples, this indicates the board was a little less in your favor, but not really bad enough to explain such a reversal in your winrate. I agree with Miffed that the main thing that jumps out is that your won $ at SD dropped significantly. Slightly over 50% is normal here, yours is at 40%.

I'd say the reason is clear, you came out short on too many big pots. You're not experiencing overall bad luck. But it really could just be variance on the big pots. I'd take a look at the big losers, did you get sucked out on there abnormally much? Set under sets, aces getting cracked? Or was it some bad play, calls you normally don't make, overplaying your hands, tilt,..?

I'm a pretty tight low stakes player, so take this for what it's worth...

Like Miff says, your VP$IP is quite high for full ring and 40% plus is much too loose from the small blind. Also, your PFR is a touch low. It seems like you are playing a little bit loose passive - aggression factor looks a little low too, but this could be a consequence of playing lots of specuative hands.

Overall, I'd tighten up a touch pre flop and try to raise a few more hands, especially pocket pairs, and other stuff in position. Your attempt to steal blinds is extremely low. I'm a complete tightwad and mine is well over 20%. Looks like you're probably missing out on lots of profitable situations when it folds to your CO or Button.

gl.

I dont think the VPIP is that high, [some say running 20/10 is near optimal for FR] Im sure you can be profitable from running that high of a VPIP, but I think for that high of a vpip you would need a much higher PFR. The big thing I wanted to poiint out was covered by Jimmy Mac, your blind stealing is almost non existent, you need to raise that. Im currently at around 30% and dont know if Id want to go much higher than that, but at under 10% you are leaving too much money on the table.

21% VP$IP is what I have been running and it has been pretty profitable. I think 20% might very well be optimal. I don't mind the current VP$IP. I do think you complete the SB too much. Watch what you are completing the SB with (and what you call a raise in the SB with). PFR% should come up a little bit. I think the rule of thumb is to try to raise at least half the hands you play PF. I am right at that number. (21.3/10.5 over the last 15K hands. 10 BB/100 winrate 53% Win at showdown). W$SD is a little low, so you probably are calling down with weak hands a little too much. I think you can nudge this up a little. Aim for 50%.

FWIW--my aggresion factor including PF is 1.4. Postflop it's closer to 2.7.

GL

Aren't you guys missing the point? His VP$IP actually went down in the third sample, and his winrate took a serious plunge. His VP$IP is not the problem here. Neither are a few blind steals.. that doesn't explain going from 10 ptBB to -20 ptBB.

You are right, Jack, I am saying VP$IP is not the problem. But completing the small blind too much is. And raising more PF gets you more FE on the flop, so that might help.

I am saying that the bigger problem seems to be calling down with marginal hands, combined with a little bit of varience contributing to the win at showdown....

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by jackvance

Aren't you guys missing the point? His VP$IP actually went down in the third sample, and his winrate took a serious plunge. His VP$IP is not the problem here. Neither are a few blind steals.. that doesn't explain going from 10 ptBB to -20 ptBB.

---

...umm sample size. Cold run of profitable spots to play. Poker isn't a game where you can tweek a couple variables then see the results 2k hands later.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Fnord

...umm sample size. Cold run of profitable spots to play. Poker isn't a game where you can tweek a couple variables then see the results 2k hands later.

---

lol.. that's actually the point of this thread.. to see if it was indeed a cold run, or that his play was at fault.

I guess the only was to surely know is to look at the hands that lead to the losing of big pots. If KL got in there with the best hand and got sucked out on too much, or got into some unavoidable allins like set vs overset, then it's just a cold run. If not..

Thanks to all who have commented so far. I feel like I have "bared my soul" by posting my stats (LOL) but I do want to improve. As for some of the hands, I won't post them all obviously but here are some typical hands (abbreviated) with my starting hand listed first.

1) AA vs QQ - flop Q 9 K r ... in position I call a PFR ... villain checks the turn and I bet 4X the pot, he pushed and I called

2) AA vs QQ - flop J 10 9 suited ... I raised preflop with 2 callers ... flop comes ... raise to me is 2/3 pot and I reraise 3x pot and get one caller ... turn is a blank .. villain checks and I push and he calls ... hits str8 with 8 on the river

3) KK vs AA - I raise preflop .. villain reraises ... we both end up allin

4) KK vs 9 10 s - villain limps preflop and I raise 6xBB and he calls along with 4 others ... flop is 10 10 3 .. villain checks and I raise 2x pot and villain pushes and I call ... others fold

5) KK vs A 2 s - I make 6xBB PFR and villain calls ... flop is Qs 6s Jd ... I raise 2/3 pot ... villain pushes ... I call ... villain hits flush on the river

Good bad or indifferent .. there went 5 buyins with either AA or KK. Granted the 1st hand was a donk call and the 4th hand was not a good call but the villain's checks had me fooled. Right now I don't have the reads (or lack of them) nearby.

Beat 25nl at 14% vpip and 6% pfr for a while, and as you get better at making prudent laydowns and value bets, have your vpip migrate towards 20% and your pfr migrate towards 10-11%.