Interesting situation leads to a question about strategy
This is a 50 NL 6-max hand history from Party:
***** Hand History for Game 4543496146 *****
$50 NL Texas Hold'em - Sunday, June 18, 12:14:32 ET 2006
Table Table 109777 (Real Money)
Seat 6 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 1: stressball10 ( $76.65 )
Seat 4: JimBeamJr ( $43.70 )
Seat 6: gmisk ( $16.68 )
Seat 2: FrabjousDay ( $50.05 )
stressball10 posts small blind [$0.25].
FrabjousDay posts big blind [$0.50].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to stressball10 [ 7s 8h ]
JimBeamJr folds.
dtrub has joined the table.
>You have options at Table 109783 Table!.
gmisk calls [$0.50].
stressball10 calls [$0.25].
FrabjousDay checks.
** Dealing Flop ** [ 3d, Th, 6d ]
stressball10 checks.
FrabjousDay checks.
gmisk bets [$0.50].
stressball10 calls [$0.50].
FrabjousDay calls [$0.50].
** Dealing Turn ** [ 9s ]
DarnSkippy06 has joined the table.
stressball10 bets [$1.25].
FrabjousDay raises [$5.50].
gmisk folds.
....
FrabjousDay is a very solid player from what I can tell. After this action the hand I suspect he has is 78 for a split. I think he would have led with a hand like T9 and probably even 69 since gmisk is a weak, bad player and there's little reason to check a pair after I checked already. 93 is an outside possibility. Given the flush draw and straight draw that are out there I don't think he would slowplay a flopped monster. Basically I think it's 75% likely he just made the same straight I did, and this is a pure value raise with the nuts. I hope I'm not freerolling 7d8d, but again I think would have bet that on the flop.
So - given that I believe we are probably splitting, it occurred to me after the hand that I might have done better to flat-call his raise and see if I could take advantage of a scare card on the river to steal the pot from him. Any diamond or pair to the board would be perfect for a large bet, and an unlikely 8 coming off might make him nervous too.
In reality I made the standard play - reraised to $15 and called his push - but what do you think of the non-standard possibilities? I think this would only apply with this kind of situation where I had a good read and a cooperative board that made it pretty clear what he was likely to have.
Re: Interesting situation leads to a question about strategy
Quote:
Originally Posted by dalecooper
I think he would have led with a hand like T9 and probably even 69 .
Why would he have led with 69?
That kind of exact read is almost impossible on this level.
Re: Interesting situation leads to a question about strategy
[quote="majorj"]
Quote:
Originally Posted by dalecooper
Why would he have led with 69?
Because he's a solid player and flopped middle pair with no one acting after him but a grade-A fish, and the only other person in the hand is another solid player in the small blind who just checked. And I didn't say he would definitely bet there with 69 - I just felt it was *likely* he would have bet with that hand. I think the range of hands that he would probably check/call the flop but then put in a healthy raise on the turn is small, and I think a lot of those hands are 78.
Quote:
That kind of exact read is almost impossible on this level.
Yes. It's an educated guess, not an exact read.
