Downswings

One of the first posts I read at FTR was the Newbie Circle of Death. 5 months later, I have to re-read it and encourage anyone who is running well and is relatively new to the game to read it ... again and again.

February, March, and April were all "car payment" months ... meaning I was winning enough to make the monthly car payment nut. May was tough but with a bonus, managed to make the payment again.

The first 8 days of June were awesome ... running over 20PT/BB at 25NL. Damn, I was working on July's payment now. Wow.

Then it happened. First it was a suckout for a stack. Then a donk call for another stack (some tilt in there somewhere). Next day, more of the same when my flush is crushed by a boat ... another stack followed by my boat getting crushed by quads. Today, I am down 7 buyins. I am trying to not let it influence my game but that is hard right now. Like everyone else, I had experienced the occassional "bad streak" and lose a couple of buyins but this was unreal.

The point of this post is for beginners who start out and then hit a nice upswing and think the poker world is theirs for the taking. Read the posts on BR management (think what an 7-8 buyin downswing would do to your playing career if you are underfunded) and the newbie circle of death.

And by the way, read everything else here you can.

June 1 - 8 I had my biggest upswing ever. I was the pWNZor. Then, I met a guy named Varience this week. He said, "What's up man? I'm sure we can become close friends!!" ... I don't like him that much, he looks at me with those eyes, and it's just creepy... :(

Agreed. Agreed. Agreed. Sometimes it's poor play, other times it's just luck. All the times I need to revisit what's not working.

Thanks man. I've been running good lately, gonna go ahead and reread the NSOD post one more time now.

And FWIW, it will turn good again (but you knew that ;)).

The truth about Downswings...


Very often you will hear players complaining about being in a bad downswing, but the truth is that a downswing is almost never just a downswing. You may really be having a run of bad luck, but almost always is not just that. Instead, after a closer look at your play you will probally find something your doing wrong (Just a small change might be all it takes)

For example, I've been playing SnG's lately and everything was going great. Then one day I started loseing. One hand after another. It felt like everytime I was all in, it was with the best hand, and I would lose. I reviewed my games and everything looked fine in PT and nothing jumped out at me in the hand histories.

Then I realised something.

I had made one little change just before this happened.

I installed a TV in my office.

See if you can spot when I installed it... and when I removed it...

Http://www.laeelin.com/images/swing.gif

Anytime you are on a downswing take a long hard look at everything about your play.

It's probally not just bad luck.

===========================================

Bankroll management is critical...

I pulled out to much money (AGAIN) and am stuck at ~$15 an hour in lower limits (AGAIN) till I can get my bankroll back up high enough (AGAIN) to go back to playing where I should be. (while still paying bills) Dont learn this the hard way. Your bankroll is everything. Learn to love bankroll mangement.

My problem isnt playing to high, it's pulling out to much. The end result is the same though. Instead of having fun and making money, I'm playing long long hard hours trying to dig myself out of a hole that I shouldnt have been in in the first place!

Downswings happen, and they can last for long periods of time, remember that poker is all about the looooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooong run

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Laeelin

The truth about Downswings...

(...)

Anytime you are on a downswing take a long hard look at everything about your play.

It's probally not just bad luck.

---

I've been saying that too. Most people don't believe it however..

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Laeelin

The truth about poker.
..
Anytime take a long hard look at everything about your play.

---

FYP.

As a postscript to this post, I did go back and study my "downswing". I reviewed every hand where I lost a stack. Results ... 6 donk plays and 2 suckouts. I think I have found the leak (more of an iceberg hit) and working to solve those.

For those who are interested in what I found ... I was calling huge turn and river bets thinking ... no way could he have ^$%^# ... and you know what ... he did. My attempt to play a bit more aggressively led me to extend that thinking to those situations where I knew I was beat but wanted to gambool. I gambooled and lost.

Here's to my fellow fish in the tank ... I'm gonna fix this.

until you fix all your leaks, complaining about downswings is futile.

When you've played 20k+ hands at a limit, had some kind of a winrate, then dropped a lot of buyins without changing your style, that is a variance downswing. Even then, so many variables come into play. Hardly anyone has a "steady" winrate.

Hell i've had nights where I made very few mistakes, but just getting pairs cracked, missing flops/draws, starts to add up massively.

Don't get me wrong ... I was NOT complaining about the downswing. Rather I was trying to point out to others that they happen. It was pointed out that both bad play and bad luck can contribute. I currently have 22,000 hands at 25nl and "was" running 10PTBB/100. For the first week of June, my 3,000 hands were running at 20PTBB/100.

I have looked at my play and will set out to fix the leaks that have tanked my game recently.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by jmontis

until you fix all your leaks, complaining about downswings is futile.

When you've played 20k+ hands at a limit, had some kind of a winrate, then dropped a lot of buyins without changing your style, that is a variance downswing. Even then, so many variables come into play. Hardly anyone has a "steady" winrate.

Hell i've had nights where I made very few mistakes, but just getting pairs cracked, missing flops/draws, starts to add up massively.

---

Why does somebody have to play 20k hands before they can experience a downswing? I agree that people often blame bad play on variance, and that downswings usually involve atleast some bad play, but you dont have to play a certain number of hands or esablish a winrate to have a downswing. Over my first 10k hands at 50nl I dropped something like 7 buyins. Bad play or variance? Id say a mix of the two, but primarily variance. Does it mean that the reason QQ was incredibly negative, KK slightly positive and AA only a little bit better was all because of my bad play simply because I hadnt logged 20k hands before losing? No, it doesnt.

I used to think the same way that you and jackvance, etc. do about downswings. "Yea, its just somebody covering up for bad play when they complain about their downswing." And then I hit one that I really could do nothing about. I cant blame it all on variance, becuase I do have some leaks in my game, but simply because I hadnt played 20k+ hands at 50nl when mine hit and my game isnt 100% perfect doesnt mean I [or anyone] cant experience variance.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by andy-akb

I used to think the same way that you and jackvance, etc. do about downswings. "Yea, its just somebody covering up for bad play when they complain about their downswing."

---

Ehm, a downswing doesn't mean you're playing bad. It's a possibility. The ones that come to mind are:
- psychological factors interfering with your play (stress or distractions or whatever) without you being aware of it.
- your game has been sucking.
- you have adjustment problems, possibly because you moved to a new site or new stake - the interface, the betting amounts and the playstyle might throw you off balance.
- the cards are simply being bad for you (this is true variance).
- you get tilted easily, so a downswing will enhance itself.

So, it really can be just cards, but before you jump to that conclusion, I'd look at some other factors too. Variance does happen, but if it becomes a scapegoat to not work on your game, it's bad.

Basically 4 times out of 5 it's not actually variance...

And 95 times out of 100 it's not only vairance...

We are just saying that calling a downswing variance is a bad idea without a lot of time spends reviewing your play, and even then you can still be wrong.

As far as 20k hands... you need 10k hands to even get a idea if your a profitable player... 100k hands to know anything like what your true winrate is.

If you have less than 20k hands, you dont have enough information to call it a downswing(90%+ of the time anyway)...

Not because you cant have a downswing for your first 10k hands, but because you simply dont have a long enough history to know much of anything (about your true skill) yet.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Laeelin

Basically 4 times out of 5 it's not actually variance...

And 95 times out of 100 it's not only vairance...

We are just saying that calling a downswing variance is a bad idea without a lot of time spends reviewing your play, and even then you can still be wrong.

As far as 20k hands... you need 10k hands to even get a idea if your a profitable player... 100k hands to know anything like what your true winrate is.

If you have less than 20k hands, you dont have enough information to call it a downswing(90%+ of the time anyway)...

Not because you cant have a downswing for your first 10k hands, but because you simply dont have a long enough history to know much of anything (about your true skill) yet.

---

I disagree with this. I need 100k hands to know if Im currently running at lower than my projected [atleast semi-accurate] winrate, I dont need a set amount of hands to say that Im in a downswing in general. If after 10k hands I lost significantly more hands than I mathematically should have, is that not a downswing? If I lost with Aces to Kings all in preflop a disproportionate number of times, isnt that a downswin, isnt that variance? I never said my play was perfect or that I know my true winrate, I simply said that the vast majority of the losses over that 10k sample were due to the downside of variance, not bad play, I dont need a certain number of hands to say that. I do not need a determination of my "true skill" to know the true odds, and to know when, over a certain sample of hands [which in this case is referred to as my downswing], those odds arent falling correctly.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by jackvance

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by andy-akb

I used to think the same way that you and jackvance, etc. do about downswings. "Yea, its just somebody covering up for bad play when they complain about their downswing."

---

Ehm, a downswing doesn't mean you're playing bad. It's a possibility. The ones that come to mind are:
- psychological factors interfering with your play (stress or distractions or whatever) without you being aware of it.
- your game has been sucking.
- you have adjustment problems, possibly because you moved to a new site or new stake - the interface, the betting amounts and the playstyle might throw you off balance.
- the cards are simply being bad for you (this is true variance).
- you get tilted easily, so a downswing will enhance itself.

So, it really can be just cards, but before you jump to that conclusion, I'd look at some other factors too. Variance does happen, but if it becomes a scapegoat to not work on your game, it's bad.

---

I agree with all of this, what I disagree with is when people assume that a downswing is due more to bad play than to variance. Often times yes what people perceive as variance is really bad play, but that isnt always the case.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by andy-akb

I agree with all of this, what I disagree with is when people assume that a downswing is due more to bad play than to variance. Often times yes what people perceive as variance is really bad play, but that isnt always the case.

---

Well, I guess we agree then. Thing is, it seemed like in the past people made posts about variance biting them in the ass, in such a pattern that it was clearly not random card variance, and everyone just replied "yeah it sucks". That's why it needs to be said to look at other things too. You can't change your luck, but you CAN do something about the other factors.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by jackvance

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by andy-akb

I agree with all of this, what I disagree with is when people assume that a downswing is due more to bad play than to variance. Often times yes what people perceive as variance is really bad play, but that isnt always the case.

---

Well, I guess we agree then. Thing is, it seemed like in the past people made posts about variance biting them in the ass, in such a pattern that it was clearly not random card variance, and everyone just replied "yeah it sucks". That's why it needs to be said to look at other things too. You can't change your luck, but you CAN do something about the other factors.

---

Right, I definitely agree with what you are saying in general about most people complaining about "variance" when a lot of it is related more to bad play; however, Im simply saying you cant assume its bad play and even more so saying I [or anybody else] need to play x amount of hands before I can distinguish whether or not Im in a downswing is a little ridiculous.

Dunno, I never said anything about X amount of hands.. but I read up and I think I agree with you. You can surely have a downswing over a couple thousand hands.

I think the W$WSF% is a good indicator of how good or bad the cards are treating you. If it's below 30 the dealer hates you. Ofcourse I only really want "luck" on my allin pots.

Quote:

---

I disagree with this. I need 100k hands to know if Im currently running at lower than my projected [atleast semi-accurate] winrate, I dont need a set amount of hands to say that Im in a downswing in general. If after 10k hands I lost significantly more hands than I mathematically should have, is that not a downswing? If I lost with Aces to Kings all in preflop a disproportionate number of times, isnt that a downswin, isnt that variance?

---

Yes, but are you also seeing other situations where you were lucky and where you were unlucky?

I have had a crazy set of 10k hands where AA and KK were NEGATIVE... and at the same time... was on an upswing!!

AA/KK got cracked many times... But I hit sets more than normal, and my straight draws hit more than normal...

It's not just simply counting how many times your rockets and sets are cracked.

Quote:

---

I never said my play was perfect or that I know my true winrate, I simply said that the vast majority of the losses over that 10k sample were due to the downside of variance, not bad play.

---

....

Who is talking about your play and your downswings?????

This isnt a thread about how andy-akb thinks he is on a downswing and it's really because he sucks....

It's a thread about how many people mistake a downswing caused by something else for a run of bad cards...

I have no idea how well you play or if your swings were from bad luck or something else... I just know that 4 times (or more) out of 5, a downswing isnt simply a run of bad cards.

Quote:

---

I agree with all of this, what I disagree with is when people assume that a downswing is due more to bad play than to variance. Often times yes what people perceive as variance is really bad play, but that isnt always the case.

---

I think your reading into what we are saying. Where are we saying that it's never vairance??

I think we have been very clear.

For example, I said: "4 times out of 5" I didnt say "5 out of 5".

Even going back to my first post... "it's probally not just bad luck. " isnt the same as "It's not bad luck"

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by andy-akb

Im simply saying you cant assume its bad play and even more so saying I [or anybody else] need to play x amount of hands before I can distinguish whether or not Im in a downswing is a little ridiculous.

---

(1) We are not assumeing that it's bad play...

(2) While you dont need X hands to HAVE a downswing, you do need X hands to correctly understand just how much of the problem is from bad luck.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Laeelin

Yes, but are you also seeing other situations where you were lucky and where you were unlucky?

I have had a crazy set of 10k hands where AA and KK were NEGATIVE... and at the same time... was on an upswing!!

AA/KK got cracked many times... But I hit sets more than normal, and my straight draws hit more than normal...

It's not just simply counting how many times your rockets and sets are cracked.

---

Yes, I review my sessions very regularly and make note when I "get lucky"

Quote:

---

Who is talking about your play and your downswings?????

This isnt a thread about how andy-akb thinks he is on a downswing and it's really because he sucks....

It's a thread about how many people mistake a downswing caused by something else for a run of bad cards...

I have no idea how well you play or if your swings were from bad luck or something else... I just know that 4 times (or more) out of 5, a downswing isnt simply a run of bad cards.

---

I reread my post and realized how it sounded, I didnt mean to make it seem as though it was specific to my situation or that you were saying mine was due to bad play and not bad cards, I was just trying to relate it to my situation for the sake of argument. I cant speak for anybody else so if I am going to take a position and argue it then I need something to relate it to that I know about, so I related that to my experience. And who was talking about it? Well the first part of your post specifically referred to my anecdotes.

Quote:

---

I think your reading into what we are saying. Where are we saying that it's never vairance??
I think we have been very clear.

For example, I said: "4 times out of 5" I didnt say "5 out of 5".

Even going back to my first post... "it's probally not just bad luck. " isnt the same as "It's not bad luck"

---

I never claimed that you said every perceived downswing was due to more than bad luck, I simply said that it is often assumed that it is due to bad play instead of bad luck without looking into the situation more. Could it be 4 out of 5? Sure, but thats not what Im arguing. Im arguing that we cant assume it is bad play and not bad luck without looking at the underlying factors.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Laeelin

(1) We are not assumeing that it's bad play...

(2) While you dont need X hands to HAVE a downswing, you do need X hands to correctly understand just how much of the problem is from bad luck.

---

Explain #2, why do I need to have played a certain number of hands to correctly understand how much of a problem is from bad play and how much is from bad luck? Could somebody who has studied statistics, probablities, etc. still have a solid grasp of statistical variance without playing 100,000 hands of poker? The assumption that we need to play X hands simply to understand a concept is just wrong.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by andy-akb

Yes, I review my sessions very regularly and make note when I "get lucky"

---

You do, most players dont.

Quote:

---

I simply said that it is often assumed that it is due to bad play instead of bad luck without looking into the situation more. Could it be 4 out of 5? Sure, but thats not what Im arguing. Im arguing that we cant assume it is bad play and not bad luck without looking at the underlying factors.

---

I think the only disagreement here is that you think the assumtion is "bad play" when the actuall assumption is "yep, vairance sure sucks".

My arguement is that we shouldnt assume vairance, and in fact that most of the time it's something else. (If I had realised this a year ago, I would have made a good bit more money)

We both have the same point though. Dont assume it's "x" study your play.

Quote:

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Laeelin

(2) While you dont need X hands to HAVE a downswing, you do need X hands to correctly understand just how much of the problem is from bad luck.

---

Explain #2, why do I need to have played a certain number of hands to correctly understand how much of a problem is from bad play and how much is from bad luck? Could somebody who has studied statistics, probablities, etc. still have a solid grasp of statistical variance without playing 100,000 hands of poker? The assumption that we need to play X hands simply to understand a concept is just wrong.

---

I just dont think it's that simple. There is so much involved that someone without a through understanding of both poker and statistics/probablities will be unable to see it, might not see it even if they do. Sure a statistical expert might be able to figure out in seconds that he was delt AA 12 times less than he should have been, and that thoes aces were cracked 27% more often than they should have.

But will they also realise that you also had TPTK against TPGK 58% more often as normal, that your sets were against 2 pair 27% times more often than normal?

I believe that the most common form of vairance is having the bad luck of hitting your hands when your against people with nothing so that you dont get paid off.

My arguement is that it's far more complicated most people believe to really knwo if your in a true downswing.

I know that I dont feel qualified.

Sure I can cover the easy stuff, but there is a lot i'm not going to even think of checking (how often did you hit a flush and someone else hit a smaller one)

All you can do is to study your play and look for problems when vairance hits.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by jackvance

I think the W$WSF% is a good indicator of how good or bad the cards are treating you. If it's below 30 the dealer hates you. Ofcourse I only really want "luck" on my allin pots.

---

OK ... first 21K hands ... 10PTBB/100 ... W$WSF = 23%

First 8 days of June ... 18PTBB/100 ... W$WSF = 28%

Last 3K hands ... W$WSF = 25%

Does this imply that I just suck right now at poker? Or maybe I always have and just got "lucky" over the previous hands. Dunno.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by KingLizard

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by jackvance

I think the W$WSF% is a good indicator of how good or bad the cards are treating you. If it's below 30 the dealer hates you. Ofcourse I only really want "luck" on my allin pots.

---

OK ... first 21K hands ... 10PTBB/100 ... W$WSF = 23%

First 8 days of June ... 18PTBB/100 ... W$WSF = 28%

Last 3K hands ... W$WSF = 25%

Does this imply that I just suck right now at poker? Or maybe I always have and just got "lucky" over the previous hands. Dunno.

---

It's not that simple (though thats not good)... how often do you win the pot without a showdown? Are you playing against passive players checking down to give you free showdowns you would never pay for?

Doyle for example used to lose a lot of showdowns. In fact in "super system" he even mentions that he normally was all in with the worse hand...

But the reason he made so much money is because he took a lot of pots down without a fight.. enough to basically "freeroll" the ones where he was all in with the worse hand.

Feel free to post all your PT stats (a new thread would probally be better) so that we can look at them)

Its possible to get dealt pocket aces every hand during your lifetime of playing poker.

Any downswing is possible no matter how perfectly you play.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by KingLizard

OK ... first 21K hands ... 10PTBB/100 ... W$WSF = 23%

First 8 days of June ... 18PTBB/100 ... W$WSF = 28%

Last 3K hands ... W$WSF = 25%

Does this imply that I just suck right now at poker? Or maybe I always have and just got "lucky" over the previous hands. Dunno.

---

To be really honest with you, I'm not totally sure how to interpret the W$WSF. I'm thinking about it/analysing it a bit though.

The problem is that, as with all of these stats, they show some evidence of your luck (or lack thereof), but they are also influenced by your playstyle. To digest from there purely the luck factor (ie how the cards have been treating you) is really hard.

For me it seems to be on average 33% or so.. and if it runs above this, I seem to be in a small upswings, below a small downswing - mostly the cards, ie variance based. But this is b/c of the way I play.

Also, this is for 6max.. if you play 10max then I don't know, maybe 25% is the normal value there. Another thing, I use PO and the "wonsawflop%", I am assuming that W$WSF is the same value, otherwise I'm totally off here.

What is your VP$IP and do you play LH or SH? I might be able to give you more info on your luck with that information.

I play 25NL FR for this discussion. I have embarked on MTTs lately but that's another story.

As of today, I have had 8 days of downswings ... now up to 11 buyins lost (note I was up 14 buyins in the first 8 days of June). A third of that loss can easily be attributed to poor play. I have posted a few hands lately and the consensus seems to be ... played okay (minor nit here and there). Unfortunately, I was stacked on every hand posted. So I played them okay and still lost a buyin.

I will be posting my stats on another thread as soon as I find a place to host them. I look forward to the comments and help.