A hypothetical scenario

I'm getting ready to leave for Winstar, and I figured I'd start a thread and read it when I get back. If anyone would like to use this thread as an opportunity to make some kind of sarcastic remark about how useless it is in a real game situation, feel free. I think it brings up some valid points, however, if you use the concepts in the right manner. Ok, on to the situation. It's pretty simple, and I'll probably add a twist on the end.

We're just going to say this is an NL100 game for simplicity's sake with $100 eff stacks, again, to make things simple.

Folds to Player A's button. Whether this game is 3 handed or 9 handed makes only a small difference at this point in theory, but if it helps ease your mind or whatever, say it's a 6-handed game.

So it folds to Player A's button. He raises to $4 with :ad: :ah:. Player A is a solid, aggressive player. He rolls at something like 18/13 in this game, but his opening range on the button is obviously significantly wider then 13% of hands. Player A plays agressively, and well post-flop, so however you'd like to interpret that, do so.

Small blind folds.

Player B calls in the BB with :2c: :2s:. Player B is a typical player in this spot. Probably calls a bit too much here, and doesn't 3-bet a wide enough range. He's also too likely to check/fold the flop, but whatever. A good player on the button has such an advantage over ANY player in the blinds. Anyway, he calls with black deuces.

Obviously neither player knows the other's holdings.

Who's getting the best of it here? And by getting the best of it, I mean who figures to make more money in this situation -GIVEN HOW PLAYERS GENERALLY PLAY POST-FLOP, AS DETERMINED BY YOU-.


--

Now for a twist. Identical situations. Only this time, player A opens for $4 with 2 cards in his range. This could be 20% or more of hands. It could be less. The same BB calls with :2c: :2s:. Who's getting the best of this situation, again, given how games generally play out after the flop, as determined by you?


Any conclusions that you draw as a result of trying to work out an explanation, feel free to share. I think this thread has the potential to bring out a lot of concepts including, but not limited to, the imporance of position, implied odds, agression, disguising the strength of your hand, etc.

Judging by the fact that Player A is a good post flop player I would say he is getting the best of it. Player B will only flop a set a small amount of the time, and Player A should be able to get rid of the overpair if this happens. The amount of times Player B calls and a check/folds the flop would be much higher IMO than if Player B hits his set.

Just for shits and giggles I am going to try and run some math here to see if my hypothesis is correct... and I like discussion threads! I'll just assume no rake to keep things simple.

Player A makes it $4, SB folds and Player B calls. The pot is now $8.50. Player B will flop a set 10.775% of the time. Assuming he will be check/folding if he doesn't, he will be doing so 89.335%. This means that is this situation was run 100 times, Player B would be check/folding about 89.335 of them and Player A would make $759.35.

Now let's say he does flop his set. This is where it gets complicated. I am going to just run some estimated betting patterns here, as I have no idea how much Player A or B would bet. I am assuming by your post that player B is not as good of a player as A... and tends to call too much. Also, I am assuming player A can get away from an overpair here. Also it depends on so many different factors, ie the flop texture. Player A would find it a lot harder to muck AA here on a 2 5 9 os flop vs a Q K 2 suited flop. Let's just say the flop brings a 2, on a not so scary board... say 2:club: 6:spade: 7:club:, and player B checks. Player A would fire about $6. Now I am going to assume Player B c/r here and makes it $15 to go. Player A should definitely assume something is up here. The pot is now $29.50. The move I would assume Player A would make would be calling. He could have a backdoor flush or something of the sort, etc. If he calls the pot is now $38.50. If Player B checked the flop, and a non-scare card fell, I would assume he would check again. This time Player A checks behind. On the river, Player B will lead out with a $15 value bet. This is where Player A decides if he is beat or it is worth a call. This of course always depends on the texture of the flop. Let's say he calls 50% and mucks 50% of the time. That means that 50% of the time when player B flops a set he will make $38.50, and 50% of the time he will make $53.50.

So let's say over 100 hands, 10.775% Player B will flop a set and make either $38.50 or $53.50. This means he would make either $207.42 or $288.23, for a total of $495.65. This is $263.70 less than Player A.

This isn't even including the fact that he could flop set under set, which would make his winnings even smaller. Also, depending on how Player B plays the hand when he flops his set will impact how much he gets paid also. Will he lead the flop/turn? Who knows. Will he play it too slow so he gets outdrawn?

A lot of this post is just assumptions / scenarios and I definitely do not have the ablity to run every single possible action here. I'm not saying I wouldn't call here in the bb with 22, but I still think Player A will make more money than Player B. This might also be because I am assuming he is too good? Who knows, it is 4:15am and I am keeping myself occupied making this long post.

Like the thread, Lukie. Now tear into my nubular response. ;)

Also, I think my post focuses too much on the point that AA is 82% to win against 22 preflop. Maybe I just missed the point entirely?

I love getting a monster here. If you raise a lot on the button in 6-max, the blinds give you no credit for a good hand.

Player A being a good player and player B being so so, I think player A will definately get the best of it. He's got the best hand, great position, good deception and he is the best player. Player B will overplay his hand on a low flop more often than not, thinking player A is on a classical blindsteal, C-bet line.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Tom42

I love getting a monster here. If you raise a lot on the button in 6-max, the blinds give you no credit for a good hand.

Player A being a good player and player B being so so, I think player A will definately get the best of it. He's got the best hand, great position, good deception and he is the best player. Player B will overplay his hand on a low flop more often than not, thinking player A is on a classical blindsteal, C-bet line.

---

Yeah that's a good point that I didn't include. If the flop comes something like 3 7 9 he could put Player A on 2 missed high cards and may check/call, etc. AA on the button in pwn.

This is pretty useless in a real game situation.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by bdawg56kg

This is pretty useless in a real game situation.

---

I couldn't disagree more.

I think the AA vs 22 comes down to how well the Button player can read the BB and control the pot size when it's over-pair vs set. Even if he gets away from his hand 25% of the time or keeps it down to less than stacks it's a big blow to the BB's implied pot odds.

If the BB almost never bluffs, the button is getting the way best of it with most cards in his range and will only lose a big pot when he hits 2nd best on an 2xx board and doesn't suck out. Not freaking likely to happen.

BTW: How much should the Button open for here pre-flop?

j/k :)

Hmm let's see. I'm not sure I really understand what you are getting at. Against A's range, B's call with 22 is probably a losing call, or maybe breakeven at best.

With the AA v 22 case however, I think there's not enough info given to determine who is getting the better of it, but I have to hand it to the player B, since I am *assuming* that player A stacks off a large % here because he is opening on the button in a 6-handed game. But again, does he know B's tendencies (ie check/fold unless he hits a set). Also, you say B calls too much in the BB in this spot. What is his calling range, and how does he play post flop? For simplicity, if we assume he c/f's if he whiffs, how does he play if he gets a piece? Middle pair? Top pair? T2p/Set/straight/monster? And how does he play his monsters in this spot, and is this pattern something that A would be able to pick up on?

1) Button gets best of it. BB folds flop alot = ++$$. Good player = wont get stacked when BB hits.

2) Button gets better then situation 1 until he reaches a tipping point where his raising range is so large that he gets 3-bet from the blinds often enough to negate the extra ofitability of his blind steals.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Irisheyes

2) Button gets better then situation 1 until he reaches a tipping point where his raising range is so large that he gets 3-bet from the blinds often enough to negate the extra ofitability of his blind steals.

---

Given the opponent described, explain why the button can't raise any 2 cards here?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Fnord

BTW: How much should the Button open for here pre-flop?

---

His standard or $3 if he thinks no-one is looking.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Irisheyes

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Fnord

BTW: How much should the Button open for here pre-flop?

---

His standard or $3 if he thinks no-one is looking.

---

Why not more? Why not $2.5 or $2?

FWIW: I think the ideal amount is between $4 and $6.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Fnord

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Irisheyes

2) Button gets better then situation 1 until he reaches a tipping point where his raising range is so large that he gets 3-bet from the blinds often enough to negate the extra ofitability of his blind steals.

---

Given the opponent described, explain why the button can't raise any 2 cards here?

---

Given this player (BB) the Buttons range will be huge by the time the tipping point is reached.

[quote="Fnord"]

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Irisheyes

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Fnord

BTW: How much should the Button open for here pre-flop?

---

His standard or $3 if he thinks no-one is looking.

---

Why not more? Why not $2.5 or $2?

Because presuming we can fold when BB hits we would like a call. $2 will make his pot odds too appealing and >$3 will cause folds too much. Is $4 not borderline "fold the table" raise at somewhere like stars or party.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by givememyleg

, and Player A should be able to get rid of the overpair if this happens.

---

This is much easier said than done. Its extraordinarily difficult to get away from AA in a situation like this:

1. Its heads up.

2. Your range on the button is truly wide, so BB villian can't put you on it specifically, and thus doesn't need a hand that beats AA to get all in with you after the flop.

3. BB villain is calling this preflop. You don't have the vital information of him limping/calling out of position.

4. Stacks are only 100bb deep. By the time AA suspects defeat here, the pot odds will be so irresistable that he'll just call anyway.


Assuming the raiser with AA is very solid, he probably will be able to get away from AA enough to extract a small advantage.

However, all things being equal (skill amongst players), I think the BB might come out ahead here.

I don't think position is really an issue here, except it might increase the difficulty 22 will have in getting paid off when it hits. A lot of the value of position is in bluffing and drawing potential, both of which are irrelevant to AA.

Quote:

---

Your range on the button is truly wide, so BB villian can't put you on it specifically, and thus doesn't need a hand that beats AA to get all in with you after the flop.

3. BB villain is calling this preflop. You don't have the vital information of him limping/calling out of position.

---

Why are you assuming that BB is the villian. What if its the other way around. I don't have these skills yet but I'd like to think I'd be playing from both sides at one time or another. Your much better than me renton, but you can't always be the AA hero on the button. :D

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Trainer_jyms

Quote:

---

Your range on the button is truly wide, so BB villian can't put you on it specifically, and thus doesn't need a hand that beats AA to get all in with you after the flop.

3. BB villain is calling this preflop. You don't have the vital information of him limping/calling out of position.

---

Why are you assuming that BB is the villian. What if its the other way around. I don't have these skills yet but I'd like to think I'd be playing from both sides at one time or another. Your much better than me renton, but you can't always be the AA hero on the button. :D

---

my response was from the perspective of laying down AA in this spot, making AA the hero :)

I thought it may have been beause he was the "solid"

button always wins thi against a player who calls from the sb so long as button player is capabl of detecting when his hand is beaten.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Miffed22001

anyone always wins so long as he is capable of detecting when his hand is beaten.

---

FYP

Thanks for sharing that insight into the value of position, BTW.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Fnord

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Miffed22001

anyone always wins so long as he is capable of detecting when his hand is beaten.

---

FYP

Thanks for sharing that insight into the value of position, BTW.

---

no probs

a pleasure as always :P

I jokingly referred to the fact that, why is the hero AA and the more solid player. But I had an actual point to that. Does anybody but me call small raises from the blind with22 in the second "twist"? If "hero" is in the blind with 22 to facing a preflop raise of 4xbb, what's his line how can he get the best of it? I'm assumeing there is more to this or why post such a lopsided scenario?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Irisheyes

Is $4 not borderline "fold the table" raise at somewhere like stars or party.

---

No. More like $7-8 at $100NL.


First scenario: Depending on what your interpretation of "getting the best of it" is, while AA wins most of the time here, 22 has the least at risk. His decisions are simple. He either does or does not put in4bb for a potential stacking opportunity and either sets or forgets, period. AA on the other hand is or should be ready to put his whole stack in from the get-go, so he potentially has 100bb at risk from the outset.

I don't think the twist scenario is much different: 22's decisions are still the same, so I think he still gets the "best of it" from a risk/reward point of view.

There seem to be a lot of comments about the button's ability to get away from a set. So, what if the BB (pocket 2's) decides to play if he gets his set, but also bluff if a 3 or a 4 falls on the flop???

I might be missing the point here, but isn't Lukie getting at the power of position with this scenario? I assume AA usually gets the best of 22 in the first hypothetical, for several reasons, not the least of which is that 222 doesn't stack a well-played AA enough to make up for all the times 22 misses the flop and folds to subsequent action.

In the second scenario any two cards have basically the same advantages as AA, but with the additional advantage of being easily pitchable. The only edge AA holds over 72o in this scenario is if the 22 goes to showdown unimproved which, given the player profiles, happens exactly never.

Player A is better than Player B + Player A has position on Player B + Player A has a better hand than Player B = Player A will get the best of it.

If both players are weak, I would assume Player A would get the best of it because of hand + position.

If both players are strong, I would assume the same as two weak players.

If Player B is stronger than Player A, I would assume Player B would get the best of it if played correctly ie. check/fold mode + maximizing set profits.

I don't think it's that easy to lay down aces, unless player A has a definite read on how player B plays his monsters. I mean, if player B is sucky, and he pushes a 2cJhTh flop, he's probably gonna have to call that.. player B might very well push there with a meriad of drawing hands. Or drag it out to the turn or river and push there. Player A will be most likely building the pot.

If player B would have had a hand like KK, QQ, AK etc, the situation would be very different. But right now, either he makes his set on the flop (11%), or he's probably dropping the hand (89%). Maybe a bluff on the flop, but that's it.

And player A, due to his hand, and like I said before, will be very hard-pressed to get away from it, lest the board become insanely scary such as a 789T all clubs (with no Ac in his hand). On a normal board, player B might very be going allin with TP or overpair.

But it depends on a lot of factors.. so many in fact that I can't make any definite calculations about who would come out on top. Probably player A though.

I think what hand each player has is basically a non issue. If player A is a better player, than player A has the best of it. If player B is a better player, than player B has the best of it.

If I was player B and I KNEW that player A held AA, then I would not call a raise unless I think that player A is stupid enough to donk off all his chips when I hit a set.

However, since I dont acutally know that player A has AA, I feel that (especially in 6 max) I can steal alot of pots from player A, postflop, given that I have more information on his hand that he does mine.