50NL AA hand

Very early in this session so no reads. Do you bet this turn? Once he check-raises, can I fold? This board seemed too dangerous to check behind and call a river bet.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (7 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

CO ($7.75)
Button ($10.50)
SB ($41.35)
BB ($57.65)
UTG ($49.25)
MP1 ($37.45)
Hero ($122.05)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif, Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif. SB posts a blind of $0.25.
1 fold, MP1 calls $0.50, Hero raises to $2, 3 folds, BB calls $1.50, MP1 calls $1.50.

Flop: ($6.25) Thttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif, Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif, 8http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif (3 players)
BB checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets $5, BB folds, MP1 calls $5.

Turn: ($16.25) Khttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif (2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets $12, MP1 calls $30.45 (All-In), Hero calls $18.45.

You can't fold. You're getting 3-1 with live outs and a probable best hand at least 30% of the time.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Rondavu

You can't fold. You're getting 3-1 with live outs and a probable best hand at least 30% of the time.

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I disagree. He's a 5.5:1 dog against the most likely hands (88,TT,KQ,AJ). So what is villain playing this way that Hero is ahead of? AK... possible, but unlikely given the open limp. The only other hands I can imagine are QJs, and MAYBE JTs or T9s. Villain has to be pushing a draw a significant amount of time for this call to be +EV. I think you can find a fold, although I'm not sure I do in the heat of battle.

isn't checking behind turn more reasonable here? Straight threat, lots of broadway combos made 2 pair and AA looks here not so good.