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First 16k hands at 200nl, talk about a roller coaster. The straight plunge at around 3500 hands was cool, having lost AA to KK all in PF / Set over set / Top two vs bottom set all in the matter of one minute at various tables. I like the 6 buyin upswing in the last 1k hands though, that's what should inspire most of you who have ran bad at a limit that it can happen to anybody and to just keep playing and you'll eventually fight through it.
http://img119.imageshack.us/my.php?i...6khands5js.jpg
Haha, this thread went well.
Well, at least I don't look like a douchebag ..
..........
Looking at this leads me to believe it is hard to tell if you are an overall winning player untill maybe 50K+ or maybe even 100K hands.
The variance seems to be so high!
Anyone know any better?
Standard deviation per 100 hands is about 40 ptBB. Assuming a longterm winrate of 3 ptBB/100, you will be between -500 ptBB and +1100 ptBB with 95% probability after 10K hands.
After 30K hands the 95% confidence interval is: [-500,2300]
After 50K hands the 95% confidence interval is: [-300, 3300]
After 100K hands the 95% confidence interval is: [500, 5500]
Assuming 5 ptBB/100, these ranges are respectively
[-300, 1300]
[100, 2900]
[700, 4300]
[2500, 7500]
Always nice to see a fellow ftr'er doing good! Good job dude!