tptk vs river open push

I have less then 20 hands on villain.

Flop action tells me probably set or flush, but he doesn't c/r turn like most players. Thoughts?

***** Hand History for Game 4480889960 *****
$200 NL Texas Hold'em - Saturday, June 10, 02:16:04 ET 2006
Table Table 96058 (Real Money)
Seat 7 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: MegaTilt_R ( $314.55 )
Seat 2: MYRKO ( $192 )
Seat 3: josephg ( $92.55 )
Seat 6: the_don30 ( $207.65 )
Seat 7: UNCLEGE ( $122.94 )
Seat 8: llloookkk ( $253.29 )
Seat 9: LIONonFIRE ( $405.82 )
Seat 10: Melea1 ( $207.50 )
Seat 5: DoomSwitched ( $198 )
Seat 4: BaldTimAce ( $50 )
llloookkk posts small blind [$1].
LIONonFIRE posts big blind [$2].
BaldTimAce posts big blind [$2].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to DoomSwitched [ As Qs ]
Melea1 folds.
MegaTilt_R folds.
MYRKO folds.
josephg folds.
BaldTimAce checks.
DoomSwitched raises [$8].
the_don30 folds.
UNCLEGE folds.
llloookkk calls [$7].
LIONonFIRE calls [$6].
BaldTimAce folds.
** Dealing Flop ** [ 2s, Tc, Qc ]
llloookkk bets [$2].
LIONonFIRE calls [$2].
DoomSwitched raises [$25].
llloookkk folds.
LIONonFIRE calls [$23].
** Dealing Turn ** [ 5s ]
LIONonFIRE checks.
DoomSwitched bets [$45].
LIONonFIRE calls [$45].
** Dealing River ** [ 6d ]
LIONonFIRE bets [$120.95].

This actually looks like a missed flush draw. I think I'd call and cry when he flips over TT/22. But I'd call nonetheless.

I'd probably call too since it's more then 2:1 and sets raise the flop or turn way too much. But then again I hate making these kind of calls without a read, since he could be a whacky slowplayer or have 4c3c. It's a tough choice. I'd like to see what others say on this.

Tough hand....

I would probably fold here, is that a leak in my game?

TPTK is my worst played hand..... I either give it too much value or not enough.

If I can't give him credit for playing a missed flush draw like this, I fold. Looks like the river made his hand though.. 34s.. or maybe he hit 2p on some shitty hand. More often than not I think he wants to get paid for his lucky fishing here..

This looks like a loose passive slowplaying a monster. This is how 95% of fish slowplay a monster. TT, 22, QQ/KK/AA if he's passive, and QT are all likely holdings given the action. He's also betting his whole stack into a large pot, which would suggest that he expects you to call.

I fold.

Quote:

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He's also betting his whole stack into a large pot, which would suggest that he expects you to call.

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I'm glad you guys posted these views, since I probably have a leak of putting too much weight on bet-patterns without a read and making calls like this with the oppositte logic - that villain doesn't want a call. Lately it seems like it's a runner-runner set/str8 or other random fishy play that indeed is trying to get paid off. These non-read-based folds make a big difference in win rates, but it's tough since noone wants to be weak-tight.

I honestly almost always see a turn raise with a monster at 200nl. It seems like a likely missed FD so I called. He had AT.

I call this flop and play the turn fast.