HUD stats on opponents

I currently use Poker Office. I let it display VP$IP, PFR and agression factor. (and amount of hands I have on said player, to see how accurate it is)

Preliminary results:

VP$IP: over 50% means they're a donk usually. Possible calling station. If it's really low, like below 20%, they're a nit. Note this is 6max I am talking about, it might vary in 10max. Somewhere between 25-40% means they could be a decent player.

PFR: This doesn't say as much about the player as VP$IP imo. It just gives you an idea about the respect you should have for their raises. The range you can put them on, so to speak. If their PFR is 3.1% or something, they're really only raising their monsters (AA/KK/QQ/AK). If it's 25%, then they're raising one out of every 4 hands.. so their range is huge.

postflop aggression factor: Sadly, I haven't been to get any useful information on a player based on this. Whether it's high or low, dunno, I haven't seen any strong correlation with their playstyle or skill level, or any useful predictive elements. You'd think that a higher aggression factor would mean they c-bet or bluff more, but this isn't consistent with my experience at all. If anyone has been able to use this parameter in a useful way, I'd be more than happy to hear about it!

To give you an idea about the problems I have with this: say their aggr factor is 3. This means they are aggressive postflop. But then what? It could mean they bluff at pots a lot.. or that they don't but just wait for a monster and push.


I have now added Flop-Turn%.. I'm going to see if this adds some predictive value about my opponents. I'm mainly looking to see if it can be used to single out calling stations better. (which I would expect to have a high % here)

Any comments welcome.

update: Dunno how comes, but I finally started to see some merit in the aggr factor and its predictive value. I was correctly able to interpret a reraise as a semi-bluff with a draw, because the guy had a high aggression factor. So I called with TPTK and shoved the turn when the draw I figured he was on didn't complete - he folded. On another instance, a low aggr factor made me suspect slowplay and I got out of a possible c/r. (I checked behind and he flipped a monster)

I also removed the useless flop-turn%.

I use pokeroffice as well, and these are the stats I have setup:

VPIP/PFR/Flop Raise [Thinking about taking this out, almost never use]/Aggression Factor
At. Steal Blinds/Fold SB to Steal/BB to steal/# Hands

Removing flop-raised % wouldnt really give me any extra room, so what should I replace it with? I wish PO had cbet and showdown stats.

The thing to remember about AF is that its a ratio of hands played. For example, someone with a AF of 7 and VPIP 10 is not nessaseraly a big bluffer/semi bluffer, its just they usually will have a legitimate hand. If they had a AF of 7 and a VPIP of 70 then their a bluffing machine.

One usefull stat I have up is %fold to c-bet. >70 they probably have the goods if they call, but are likely to fold. <40 and they there's a good chance they are floating and require a second barrel.

One of the few things I hate about PokerOffice is that it doesn't allow you to display the variety of stats that PAHud does. And it's a shame because PO uses screen scraping to give real time odds and outs and is just smoother.

On PokerOffice I display:
VPIP, PFR, Aggression, hands, same as you.

One of the reasons that Aggression factor alone isn't predictive of styles is that it's a ratio of bets/raises to calls only. Someone who check/folds 85% of the time on the flop may appear to be hyper aggressive because he'll make 14 bets and 1 call for the other 15% and have an agg factor of 14!. That's weak/tight not suicidal aggression.

In order to use aggression to determine styles you really need one of these two in addition:
-WSD when saw flop%, W$SD% (very low:very high = weak/tight)
OR
-Folds to bet on the streets %

On PAHud I use a lot more stats and it gives a much clearer portrait of the player:
-VPIP, PFR
-Cont bet %, Folds to cont bet %
-Aggression factor on all streets
-Folds to bet on all streets
-WSD%, W$SD%
-Hands total

It's very easy to isolate a player with stats like:
3+ Aggression, 14% WSD, 70% W$SD and high folds to bets and realize that even though his aggression is on the high side he's really weak/tight and you should bluff him every chance you get. Also when he makes a move it means he has the goods.

You can easily distinguish that from a player like
3+ aggression, 33% WSD, 50% W$SD and realize that even if these players have the same VPIP and aggression stats they really are completely different. I probably would avoid making too many moves on player 2 here as he will call a lot and play back at you. And I wouldn't give him half the credit for a hand at the river I would player 1.


I hope that gives you an idea of why aggression factor alone is not really a playstyle indicator. I already posted in PO forums that we really need WSD and W$SD added into the livetracker, admin said they would work on adding it so when it is that will be a huge boost in reading players.

EDIT: This post was for 10Max, but the principle applies to 6Max as well, with proportionally different numbers.

Very helpful post Nova, thx a lot.

I guess with the current livetracker features, you could add flop-turn% to get some idea?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by jackvance

aggr factor is 3. This means they are aggressive postflop. But then what? It could mean they bluff at pots a lot.. or that they don't but just wait for a monster and push.

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Aggression factor doesnt take into account the size of the bet. If someone waits for a monster and pushes their aggr factor will be very low.

If they bluff lots it will probably be pretty high.

If they minbet every hand it will be huge.


Something to look out for when using this stat is the people who minbet/minraise alot with crap/draws, but bet good hands strongly.
They will show a huge AF but they arent bluffing.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by finky

One usefull stat I have up is %fold to c-bet. >70 they probably have the goods if they call, but are likely to fold. <40 and they there's a good chance they are floating and require a second barrel.

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Funny thing.. I actually looked for that stat a week ago b/c I really wanted to have that one in but alas PO doesn't support it.