Explanation of pot odds requested.
I THINK i understand pot odds, but the way i understand it it is difficult to calculate it on the fly if you consider a RANGE of hands. I can calculate it pretty easy if i am drawing on the nuts, but i don't get the consequences if i am not going to the nuts. Plus if board pairs and nuts changes to boat, I discount that cause i dunno how to examine it.
For example. I am in HU and pot is 1000. I have Ax clubs and 2clubs come out on flop. 9 of 13 clubs remain, in approximately 47 cards. I like to round numbers so I am going to call this 1/5 chance of a club on the turn and 1/5 chance on river if it doesn't come on turn.
So i have a 1/5 chance to win on either of next 2 cards (ignoring pairing the board, and i want to learn how NOT to ignore it. but ignored for sake of this example.
So villian bet's 100. Clearly that is only 10% of pot and i have 40% change of getting the flush (1/5 + 1/5 cause it's an OR situation) so i bet. Good pot odds. I call.
But turn did not hit club.
So now pot is 1200. i have 1/5 or 20% chance to get my flush on river. If bet is over 240, it is getting time to fold since my pot odds are decreasing. 240 is close so I may call based on a read, but a bet of 500 makes me think to immediately fold cause I have half the odds to hit that I am paying...
In this over simplified example, am i basically correct?
Or barring my stupid example, can someone put up a clear example?
I tried the search feature, but so many people say "pot odds" in post that I cannot find an explanation.
Thanx in advance..
SuperDave9x19
Re: Explanation of pot odds requested.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SuperDave9x19
I THINK i understand pot odds, but the way i understand it it is difficult to calculate it on the fly if you consider a RANGE of hands. I can calculate it pretty easy if i am drawing on the nuts, but i don't get the consequences if i am not going to the nuts. Plus if board pairs and nuts changes to boat, I discount that cause i dunno how to examine it.
At the end of my post I will try to make this more clear
Quote:
For example. I am in HU and pot is 1000.
In HU? Its just you and another player in the pot? By saying you are "in" it makes it sound like thats your position.
Quote:
I have Ax clubs and 2clubs come out on flop. 9 of 13 clubs remain, in approximately 47 cards. I like to round numbers so I am going to call this 1/5 chance of a club on the turn and 1/5 chance on river if it doesn't come on turn.
So i have a 1/5 chance to win on either of next 2 cards (ignoring pairing the board, and i want to learn how NOT to ignore it. but ignored for sake of this example.
So villian bet's 100. Clearly that is only 10% of pot and i have 40% change of getting the flush (1/5 + 1/5 cause it's an OR situation) so i bet. Good pot odds. I call.
You have a 40% chance IF youc all both the turn and the river, so you cant figure that in really. Just worry about one street at a time for now. He bets 100 into a pot of 1000, you have to call 100 for a chance to win 1100 chips, so you need to put in less than 10% of the chips, you hit your flush 20% of the time on the turn so this is a call.
Quote:
But turn did not hit club.
So now pot is 1200. i have 1/5 or 20% chance to get my flush on river. If bet is over 240, it is getting time to fold since my pot odds are decreasing. 240 is close so I may call based on a read, but a bet of 500 makes me think to immediately fold cause I have half the odds to hit that I ampaying...
In this over simplified example, am i basically correct?
Disregarding implied odds, this logic is generally correct [not about the turn 40% chance though]
Quote:
Or barring my stupid example, can someone put up a clear example?
I was about to post a hand that clearly illustrated making decisions based on pot odds but realized the hand dealt more with implied odds. Im playing right now and Ill try to find a hand that involves pretty straight forward pot odds.
Re: Explanation of pot odds requested.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SuperDave9x19
I THINK i understand pot odds, but the way i understand it it is difficult to calculate it on the fly if you consider a RANGE of hands. I can calculate it pretty easy if i am drawing on the nuts, but i don't get the consequences if i am not going to the nuts. Plus if board pairs and nuts changes to boat, I discount that cause i dunno how to examine it.
For example. I am in HU and pot is 1000. I have Ax clubs and 2clubs come out on flop. 9 of 13 clubs remain, in approximately 47 cards. I like to round numbers so I am going to call this 1/5 chance of a club on the turn and 1/5 chance on river if it doesn't come on turn.
So i have a 1/5 chance to win on either of next 2 cards (ignoring pairing the board, and i want to learn how NOT to ignore it. but ignored for sake of this example.
So villian bet's 100. Clearly that is only 10% of pot and i have 40% change of getting the flush (1/5 + 1/5 cause it's an OR situation) so i bet. Good pot odds. I call.
But turn did not hit club.
So now pot is 1200. i have 1/5 or 20% chance to get my flush on river. If bet is over 240, it is getting time to fold since my pot odds are decreasing. 240 is close so I may call based on a read, but a bet of 500 makes me think to immediately fold cause I have half the odds to hit that I am paying...
In this over simplified example, am i basically correct?
Or barring my stupid example, can someone put up a clear example?
Ok, the pot odds analysis of this scenario. Pot is 1000. You have 9 outs and 9x2=18% to hit on the turn and 9x4=36% to hit over turn and river. So yeah, 1/5 is good as an approximation. Villain bets 100. The pot is now 1100. To call, you have to invest 100 into what will be a 1200 pot, or 8.3%. Clearly favorable.
The way I calculate this on the fly, is simply look at the pot, and what i have to invest. After his bet, the pot is 1100. My share is 100. So I remember "11" as the times my share fits in the pot. Then I add one. So it becomes 12. So I have to invest 1/12 here. (this is the 8.3% mentionned earlier)
Now the pot is 1200. Villain bets 240. After his bet, the pot is 1440. You have to invest 240. Quick on the fly calculation.. it fits in there like 6 times or something? Then I add 1, so "7". You have to invest 1/7 for a 1/5 chance to hit. Pretty good.
General rule of thumb so you don't need to repeat doing all the math: any bet below half pot is an auto call (so anything he bets below 600, including your 500.. at 500, if you do the math correctly, you will see that you are within a 2% margin playing exactly on the odds to hit), and if you want to go higher than that, you need some reason to believe he's gonna pay up more if you hit.
So yeah, sometimes you can even call with disfavorable pot odds, because of implied odds. Say he bets 600. Pot is 1800, your 600 fits in there 3 times, you add one and it becomes 4 so you have to call for 1/4. This is a bit more than pot odds suggest, so it's generally disadvised. However.. if you for some reason are pretty sure your opponent is going to push his remaining 2000 stack when you hit your flush, then this is a good deal to take. I could give you the math of why this is true, but it's probably intuitively obvious. If however you think your opp already put you on a flush draw and won't pay any more if you hit.. then this is not a profitable call because you pay 1/4 for a 1/5 chance to hit.
Re: Explanation of pot odds requested.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SuperDave9x19
So villian bet's 100. Clearly that is only 10% of pot and i have 40% change of getting the flush (1/5 + 1/5 cause it's an OR situation) so i bet. Good pot odds. I call.
Your math is off. You have a 20% chance of hitting a club on the turn, You can't add the fractions, otherwise you would have a 100% chance of hitting a club for every 5 cards (1/5+1/5+1/5+1/5+1/5) which is obviously not true.
You actually have a 36% chance of hitting a club on the next two cards.
Chance of hitting a club on the turn, missing the river: (1/5)(4/5)=.16
Chance of missing the turn, hitting the river:(1/5)(4/5)=.16
Chance of hitting on turn and river:(1/5)(1/5)=.04
Total:36% chance of making a flush
Re: Explanation of pot odds requested.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SuperDave9x19
So i have a 1/5 chance to win on either of next 2 cards (ignoring pairing the board, and i want to learn how NOT to ignore it.
You usually wont need to worry about this with a flush since there are so many hands that will bet that arent a set/trips that you just ignore them until you have more evidence. The times when you start to think he must have a set are when he bets/raises so much that you cant call with a draw anyway.
A more common example of discounting outs is for say drawing to a straight on a 2 flush board.
Say it is a 3 way pot with the guy in first position betting, guy in MP calling and you on the button calling.
You have :6c: :7h:
And the board is
:4s: :5h: :ah: :2d:
You are pretty sure the guy betting has top pair. For this example we somehow know that the guy calling is equally likely to be slowplaying the
:ac: :5c: as he is to have a flush draw.
There are 8 cards that will give you the straight, but 2 of them are hearts so there are only 6 cards that will definatly win you the hand. The 2 hearts will win you the hand half of the time (when MP isnt on a flush draw) so we just divide these outs by 2.
So you can count your total outs as 6+(2/2) = 7 outs.
So you have a roughly 14% chance of winning the hand at this point and can judge whether to call or fold based on these odds.
Re: Explanation of pot odds requested.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ark4748
Quote:
Originally Posted by SuperDave9x19
So villian bet's 100. Clearly that is only 10% of pot and i have 40% change of getting the flush (1/5 + 1/5 cause it's an OR situation) so i bet. Good pot odds. I call.
Your math is off. You have a 20% chance of hitting a club on the turn, You can't add the fractions, otherwise you would have a 100% chance of hitting a club for every 5 cards (1/5+1/5+1/5+1/5+1/5) which is obviously not true.
You actually have a 36% chance of hitting a club on the next two cards.
Chance of hitting a club on the turn, missing the river: (1/5)(4/5)=.16
Chance of missing the turn, hitting the river:(1/5)(4/5)=.16
Chance of hitting on turn and river:(1/5)(1/5)=.04
Total:36% chance of making a flush
note 2/5 (0.4) approx equal to .36. I know I lost the (n-1)/n part but when playing poker I approximate to free up brain space. I think 10% error acceptable on the fly.
Re: Explanation of pot odds requested.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SuperDave9x19
note 2/5 (0.4) approx equal to .36. I know I lost the (n-1)/n part but when playing poker I approximate to free up brain space. I think 10% error acceptable on the fly.
Yeah adding them up is fine, but I think your general math is wrong. For example when you say
Quote:
but a bet of 500 makes me think to immediately fold cause I have half the odds to hit that I am paying...
I get the impression you are calculating the pot odds incorrectly. You have to bet 500 into what will be a 2200 pot or 22.7%.. hardly double your odds..
