I never show a hand like this...

... but I want some feedback.

Villain is like 12/2 over a couple hundred hands, but surprisingly, it seems like he has some moves. We've also been bumping into each other of late on a few tables. Advice on all streets post-flop welcome. River is not for value. I feel my turn play is verye questionable, and I guess you could add flop play to that as well. Oh for christ's sake, just give me some advice. I'm obviously repping AA here, and when that is said, it usually ends in tears...

Also please notice stack sizes, as my river AI is not covered. There's a pretty substantial gap too.

Also I'm following through with c-bets quite often on a lot of tables, if this is releveant (it is).

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($63.85)
UTG ($109.10)
UTG+1 ($143.30)
Hero ($128)
MP2 ($92)
CO ($100)
Button ($149.20)
SB ($135.75)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K:heart:, K:club:.
UTG calls $1, 1 fold, Hero raises to $5, 1 fold, CO calls $5, 3 folds, UTG folds.

Flop: ($12.50) 2:club:, 8:spade:, 4:diamond: (2 players)
Hero bets $7, CO raises to $16, Hero calls $9.

Turn: ($44.50) 5:heart: (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $26, Hero calls $26.

River: ($96.50) 3:diamond: (2 players)
[color=#CC3333]Hero bets $81

It seems like you put him on a set that you are trying to bluff out, right? If that's the case, then why call the turn? I don't like c/c turn. I would cr ai or c/f. Once you get to the river, I like it.

Maybe elaborate on some of his moves? Board is pretty darn dry, so I'd be very cautious.

I like the river AI, he doesn't have to fold too often to make it profitable, but I hate the rest of it. Well... preflop is fine.

On the flop, you bet like you should, but you are raised. I HATE the call. I give him a set or an overpair. By calling you give him complete control, and you give him permission to continue betting his hand for value or push you off on later streets. If you can put him on a set most of the time, I would rather not pay him off. I hate playing set-miners with overpairs. That is the way they make their cash. If they are making money, someone is losing it and I'd rather not be that person.

Your hand is not going to improve very often, niether is his. The flop is the time to determine if you are ahead or behind.

If you are ahead, you are way ahead. If you are behind, you are way behind. His raise indicates that he is NOT going to let you show this down cheap. Your best option is to reraise the flop, lead the turn with a smallish bet, and try to control the pot. If he raises again, remember that he is a set-miner.

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Originally Posted by piratepeaty

If you are ahead, you are way ahead. If you are behind, you are way behind. His raise indicates that he is NOT going to let you show this down cheap. Your best option is to reraise the flop.

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Why do you want to make the CO's decisions so easy? If we re-raise the flop we get called or re-raised by a set (obviously) but we give the CO a chance to get away from a hand like TT or give up on a complete bluff. We want those hands to keep pumping money into the pot, we don't want to scare them away.

I agree that if the CO has a set most of the time, we should just fold right now, but if we're ahead of his range, and we know he's going to keep pumping money into the pot, I think calling him down is the best option. I really like the way the posted hand was played.

Here is a hand I played where MP was bluffing with 77. I had folded TPTK to him in the past when he took this line and I had seen him play like this before with just top pair, so I decided to call him down this time. Should I have re-raised the flop and either won a tiny pot or gotten stacked by a set?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG ($18.85)
MP ($65.75)
Hero ($69.35)
SB ($44.55)
BB ($17.95)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K:spade:, K:diamond:.
1 fold, MP calls $0.50, Hero raises to $2.5, 2 folds, MP calls $2.

Flop: ($5.75) 5:diamond:, Q:club:, 4:spade: (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $4, MP raises to $8, Hero calls $4.

Turn: ($21.75) 4:heart: (2 players)
MP bets $15, Hero calls $15.

River: ($51.75) 8:spade: (2 players)
MP bets $40.25 (All-In), Hero calls $40.25.

Final Pot: $132.25

his stack is exactly $100, is this his first hand at the table?

fold the turn mang

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Originally Posted by gabe

fold the turn mang

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Why not just fold the flop if you're going to fold the turn? I don't like putting money in the pot if I know I'm not going to be getting it back.

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Originally Posted by mcatdog

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Originally Posted by gabe

fold the turn mang

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Why not just fold the flop if you're going to fold the turn? I don't like putting money in the pot if I know I'm not going to be getting it back.

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in my experience, sometimes i get raised here with a smaller pair that didn't set, hoping i had AK.

sometimes i will lead the turn and fold to a raise if i put them on a non-set PP

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Originally Posted by gabe

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Originally Posted by mcatdog

Quote:

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Originally Posted by gabe

fold the turn mang

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Why not just fold the flop if you're going to fold the turn? I don't like putting money in the pot if I know I'm not going to be getting it back.

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in my experience, sometimes i get raised here with a smaller pair that didn't set, hoping i had AK.

sometimes i will lead the turn and fold to a raise if i put them on a non-set PP

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I like that line too. Non-set PP will often check behind and call a river value bet.

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Originally Posted by piratepeaty

If you are ahead, you are way ahead. If you are behind, you are way behind. His raise indicates that he is NOT going to let you show this down cheap. Your best option is to reraise the flop, lead the turn with a smallish bet, and try to control the pot.

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If we are way ahead/way behind, then there is little point in raising. If he has TT, he folds without a second thought to a flop 3-bet. But if we call flop, cr ai turn, then we get an extra $26 out of him. If he has a set, then we are screwed either way, assuming we don't fold to the first flop raise. I think 3-betting this flop and folding to a push is ridiculous. Same with 3-betting and leading the turn, then folding to a raise. Say you raise flop to $40 and he calls. How much are you planning to lead the turn for, that is not all in? Basically 3-betting this flop sucks big time because it allows villian to play perfect poker. ie fold everything that we beat and get a ton of value out of all hands we are behind. Also if you do 3-bet flop, I think a set will smooth call a good % of the time. So much for finding out where you're at.

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Originally Posted by mcatdog

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Originally Posted by piratepeaty

If you are ahead, you are way ahead. If you are behind, you are way behind. His raise indicates that he is NOT going to let you show this down cheap. Your best option is to reraise the flop.

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Why do you want to make the CO's decisions so easy? If we re-raise the flop we get called or re-raised by a set (obviously) but we give the CO a chance to get away from a hand like TT or give up on a complete bluff. We want those hands to keep pumping money into the pot, we don't want to scare them away.

I agree that if the CO has a set most of the time, we should just fold right now, but if we're ahead of his range, and we know he's going to keep pumping money into the pot, I think calling him down is the best option. I really like the way the posted hand was played.

Here is a hand I played where MP was bluffing with 77. I had folded TPTK to him in the past when he took this line and I had seen him play like this before with just top pair, so I decided to call him down this time. Should I have re-raised the flop and either won a tiny pot or gotten stacked by a set?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG ($18.85)
MP ($65.75)
Hero ($69.35)
SB ($44.55)
BB ($17.95)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K:spade:, K:diamond:.
1 fold, MP calls $0.50, Hero raises to $2.5, 2 folds, MP calls $2.

Flop: ($5.75) 5:diamond:, Q:club:, 4:spade: (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $4, MP raises to $8, Hero calls $4.

Turn: ($21.75) 4:heart: (2 players)
MP bets $15, Hero calls $15.

River: ($51.75) 8:spade: (2 players)
MP bets $40.25 (All-In), Hero calls $40.25.

Final Pot: $132.25

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Originally Posted by mcatdog

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Originally Posted by piratepeaty

If you are ahead, you are way ahead. If you are behind, you are way behind. His raise indicates that he is NOT going to let you show this down cheap. Your best option is to reraise the flop.

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Why do you want to make the CO's decisions so easy? If we re-raise the flop we get called or re-raised by a set (obviously) but we give the CO a chance to get away from a hand like TT or give up on a complete bluff. We want those hands to keep pumping money into the pot, we don't want to scare them away.

I agree that if the CO has a set most of the time, we should just fold right now, but if we're ahead of his range, and we know he's going to keep pumping money into the pot, I think calling him down is the best option. I really like the way the posted hand was played.

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This would be my standard play in any situation where I figure to be way ahead or way behind. However, based on CO preflop stats, the fact that he just called preflop, and his raise on the flop, I was thinking we are ahead as often as we are behind.

But then I did some analysis...

3 hands give him a set in 3 different combinations a piece and there is AA that I think is also in his range with 6 combinations. That is 15 hands we are way behind. Then there is 99,TT, JJ, and QQ with 6 combinations a piece for a total of 24 hands we are way ahead.

Ignoring bluffs and other hands, that are unlikely given the action preflop and on the flop. We appear to be ahead about 61% of the time based on this analysis. It is far more likely that we are against an overpair hand that we beat, and he may release it if we raise thus losing value most of the time. As well, if he is ahead, we just help him get his chips in by raising.

The only question is, how do we prevent paying off a set too often while still getting value out of a pkt pair? If he has a set he will pump that pot as much as possible. If he has something like TT, how do we ensure that we get enough value for the times we are behind?

I'm starting to think raising isn't the right play... for example, if he has TT and we raise the flop he is going to have a difficult time calling. But he may check the turn, especially if a face card hits. Raising is clearly out as he will never fold a better hand, and will likely slow down on a worse hand. So I think calling is correct here.

However with the turn play, how do we prevent paying too much to a set and still get value out of a hand like TT? If we donk, he raises with a set, and calls or folds with a pkt pair. He may also raise with QQ. If we check, he may bet again, or check it through with a worse hand. If he has a better hand he is bets when checked to. This is where it gets tricky. How much can we call, when behind without losing our 10% edge over his range? ie. how can we get paid off enough with the best hand, and save money with the worst?

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Originally Posted by piratepeaty

I like the river AI, he doesn't have to fold too often to make it profitable, but I hate the rest of it. Well... preflop is fine.

On the flop, you bet like you should, but you are raised. I HATE the call. I give him a set or an overpair. By calling you give him complete control, and you give him permission to continue betting his hand for value or push you off on later streets. If you can put him on a set most of the time, I would rather not pay him off. I hate playing set-miners with overpairs. That is the way they make their cash. If they are making money, someone is losing it and I'd rather not be that person.

Your hand is not going to improve very often, niether is his. The flop is the time to determine if you are ahead or behind.

If you are ahead, you are way ahead. If you are behind, you are way behind. His raise indicates that he is NOT going to let you show this down cheap. Your best option is to reraise the flop, lead the turn with a smallish bet, and try to control the pot. If he raises again, remember that he is a set-miner.

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So we're either way ahead or way behind, yet you want to completely define our hand and put all the chips in the middle first on a completely dry board. I don't like your reasoning.

fwiw, in my hand, I think folding the flop is pretty bad here just b/c thats so exploitable.. I'm multitabling with this guy and he knows that I often just have A high here. Turn is kinda bad b/c I really think I'm beat and I'm just being a huge fish here. I should probably c/f to a guy of his stats. He folded the river. I don't know what he had.

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Originally Posted by mcatdog

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Originally Posted by gabe

fold the turn mang

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Why not just fold the flop if you're going to fold the turn? I don't like putting money in the pot if I know I'm not going to be getting it back.

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I actually like a river bet, but not AI. With the way this played out, I would probably lead out for ~$30-35 on the river and fold to a raise. I might also check-raise AI on the turn.

Luckie raises 5x PF then on the flop he bets $7 into $12.50 pot on the flop.

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I'm obviously repping AA here and when that is said, it usually ends in tears...

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The flop line doesn't look like AA to me. It looks more like a continuation bet. I have an idea of how you play and I imagine you make bets like this with a wide range of hands if you raised PF and are HU. You said yourself that you're following thorugh with a lot of c-bets, and to me, that's what this look like.

The CO's line on the flop is consistent with 99-QQ. It looks like you're making a c-bet and he doesn't want you seeing another card for free if you indeed just have overs. Knowing what I know about you, I would have expected you to bet more on the flop if you had an over pair. This guy has played more hands against you than I have so if he semi-aware then he might be thinking the same thing.

If you had overs, you're likely not going to call the raise, especially OOP. If he has 99-QQ then it's a good bet. Even if he has nothing it's a good place to take a stab.

Nuts, pokerstars is more and more becoming really weak-tight. If I had AA, I would have made that exact bet on that flop. If he is semi-aware, he knows this. I'm not sure if he is semi-aware, but my guess is yes.

fwiw i'd probably usually make it $8 or $9 on the flop, but oh well....