Pot odds / implied odds

Hello,

I ve read on this site an article about poker odds. There was one thing that I did not understand and I hope someone can explain it to me.

This was written:
I have JT and the flop comes A 8 9 - rainbow.
The pot is current at $8.00, and Player1 bets $2.00. Everyone else folds.
I have a 31.5% chance to hit my hand over the turn and river.
I have to call a $2.00 bet to win what will be a $12.00 pot. Since my bet is only about 17% of the pot, yet I have a 31.5% chance of winning (across the turn & river card!), the "pot odds" justify making the call.

Then a little bit later this was written about the same example only then with implied odds:
Let's say you know Player1 will probably bet another $4 on the turn. So really, you are looking at calling $6.00 against a pot of $16.00. The percentage now is 37.5% (6/16) as opposed to our earlier example where it was 17%. In this case, the call isn't as clear and the current pot odds don't quite justify the call because 37.5% is greater than our 31.5%. However, there are implied odds to consider, and these odds may justify making this call.

The thing that I do not understand is the way they calculate the money with the implied odds. In the first example they are telling me that I have to call a $2.00 bet to win what will be a $12.00 pot ($8 was already in the pot en both players put in 2 dollars, so 12 in total.)
Now in the implied odds part they are telling me that I have to call $6 to win 16$. But why sixteen dollars? Then you are only calculating the extra four dollars put in by player one on the turn. But I also put in an extra four dollars when I call on the turn. So you are looking at a pot of 20 dollars I would say, because that is what they did at the first example (they also took my own bet into the calculation). So I m a bit confused. Now is my question whether you should also take your own bet into the calculation or not?

I hope someone can tell me the answer

Martijn (Netherlands)

Ug, this is wrong, someone needs to fix it. Should read 2 to call for a ten pot - 8 dollar pot + opp's 2 bet.

You're calling 2 for a chance to win the ten that is in there right now. You don't count the two because that's still in your stack right now, if you fold you keep the two, lose the (chance at) the ten.

It sorta depends on if you are playing Limit or No-Limit. In NL, you can chase a straight with bad odds, because if you make it and your opponent has a hand which you don't think he'll be able to let go, then you can take his whole stack, making it well worth the call incase you hit. Generally, if you opponent has a lot of money in front of him, you can justify calling anything up to a pot sized bet to chase an open-ended straight draw, because chances are it won't be very obvious when you hit and you'll get paid off well.

A flush draw is a different story. Try not to ever chase a flush draw with bad odds, because its a lot more apparent when you hit your draw then it is with a straight.

In limit on the other hand, it is a terrible idea to chase without odds, because since the betting's fixed you don't have as much implied odds (odds that you will win more bets on later streets in case you hit).

In either case, don't ever use the 32% number for pot odds. Use the 4.5:1 that the NEXT card will complete your draw.

Ok - I'm gonna try and make it simple - but this is not necessarily a simple topic.

Pot odds = do you have the mathematical odds to make a call.

Implied odds = even if you don't have the mathematical odds to make a call, given your stack sizes and your opp's play will you be able to destack him if you hit with your outs with your mathematically -EV call.

Some people use %s to figure out their pot odds, others use ratios (i.e. 2:1). Either are fine as long as you know how to use them.

There is often confusion regarding how to figure out your pot odds - do I include my money into the final pot to determine my odds or not? I am not going to put the answer in yes or no terms because people think about these things differently. But here is how to figure out your pot odds percentage wise:

You take your bet and divide into what the total pot will be after you call. In the example above it is $2 into a $10 pot. So the pot odds is $2/$12 ($10+$2) = 1/6 or 16.7%.

Ok so now we know how to determine our pot odds - the next battle is knowing how to USE our pot odds.

If that $2 bet is the ONLY call we are going to have to make than all we need is a 1 in 6 (or better) chance to hit out outs by the river for us to make this call.

However, in most cases, you will often face another bet on the turn. This is why I like to determine pot odds on a street by street basis.

In the above example I know I am being given 17% odds and I know I have at least 8 outs (the four Ks and the four 9s). A quick way to determine your odds is multiply your outs by 2 for each street. In this case that means I have about a 16% (or 1 in 6) shot to hit by the turn, and about a 32% (or 1 in 3) shout of hitting by the river.

Because I have about a 1 in 6 shot to hit my turn and I am being given exactly a 1 in 6 odds - I am in essence making an exactly EVEN play by making this call. In other words if the betting were to stop by the turn I would end up making exactly $0 in the long run by making this call. 5 of 6 times I would lose my $2 for a net loss of $10 and 1 of 6 times I would win the pot for a net gain of $10 (10-10=0).

However, in practice, I will make the call here every time (in fact I might even semi-bluff depending on my opp). If I hit my hand, I have a good shot of getting lots of extra value (that's what implied odds are all about), and if I don't I can go through the whole process again on the turn.

char I dont understand why you are adding your 2$ call into the pot. If the pot is 8 and the villian bets 2, then the pot is now 10. And its a 2$ bet to you. So you have to pay 2$ for the chance to win 10. You are not winning 12, because theres only 10$ available to win. Your 2$ is yours until its in the pot. You are being offered odds of 1:5 on the call. I could be horribly wrong, but you need 8:47 to call. Get this from 52 cards in the deck, minus the 5 you can see, so 47, and you have 8 outs of those 47. 8:47!. and to make the pot odds offered to you easily comparable to the odds of you hitting, we can do 1*8:5*8, to get 1:40. So you have a 1:47 chance to hit, and it only cost you 1:40 on your money to see the next card. So for every dollar put in you are earning 15 cents because 40 is ~85% of 47. So without implied odds this call is +ev.

I think my math is sound.. correct me if Im wrong.

You are correct - and I am correct.

This is why pot odds always gets confusing - because people think about it in different ways. I happen to think about pot odds in terms of percentages, because I still use the handy dandy multiply outs * 2 to equal percentage rule. You clearly think of pot odds in terms of ratios - like I said before either is fine. The tricky part is that ratios are often confusing to percentage guys, because a ratio looks like you should simply divide the numerator by the denominator to get your percentage and that is NOT the case for pot odd percentages.

You are being offered 1:5 to call - $2 into a $10 pot.

but 1:5 in percentages = 1/6 = 16.7%

that's because 1:5 means "1 to 5" NOT "1 in 5". So you are correct it is not winning $12 it is only winning $10. So for every 5 times you lose $2 you need to win $10 once to make this an even play. But even though it is $2 and $10 to figure out your pot odds in terms of PERCENTAGES (rather than ratios) it is 2/10+2 it is NOT 2/10.

I believe you are also correct about the call here being slightly +EV just basing it on pot odds as well. I didn't want to get into the heavy duty math here - I just wanted to try and explain the thought process. In the end, calling this flop bet is basically an even play (you are correct that in the long run it is actually going to make you a small profit) - I was just trying to explain why that is the case.

ok, I thought I was fairly clear on pot odds, but it seems I was commonly confusing (for example) 2:5 with 2/5. I think my brain my actually work in percentages better but it seems most people use ratios, so this all is starting to confused me...

the scary part is, Im a winning player over a year even so :-D

omfg.. I havent slept in a very long time and I just reread the post above. And to think, I was about to fire up some tables and play for a couple hours. Im thinkin that might not be the best of ideas.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by boostNslide

You are being offered odds of 1:5 on the call. I could be horribly wrong, but you need 8:47 to call. Get this from 52 cards in the deck, minus the 5 you can see, so 47, and you have 8 outs of those 47. 8:47!. and to make the pot odds offered to you easily comparable to the odds of you hitting, we can do 1*8:5*8, to get 1:40. So you have a 1:47 chance to hit, and it only cost you 1:40 on your money to see the next card. So for every dollar put in you are earning 15 cents because 40 is ~85% of 47. So without implied odds this call is +ev.
I think my math is sound.. correct me if Im wrong.

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Boost, I always use chardians method to figure out pot odds but I think, and Im probably wrong, that something is wrong with you math here. Youre being offered 1:5 odds on the call and need 8:39 to call (8:39 = 8/47) so then if you simplify like you did and multiply 1*8:5*8 to get 8:40, youll end up with a 8:39 chance to hit andyou'll have 8:40 odds to call. 8:40 = 16.7% (percentage put in pot) and 8:39=17% (chance to hit) and b/c 17% is greater than 16.7% you should call(chance of hitting is greater than the % your putting into the pot). Since the percentages are so close this is simply an even play

again im probably wrong since i never use ratios to calculate pot odds

no you are precisely right.

colombia wins once again!..who am i kidding colombia never wins :((Panama Canal lol). BTW that Family Guy episodes is very funny especially the wheel chair song

so would you normally at a table just say 8/39 is 8/40? Cuz it really doesnt matter and you arent gonna do 8/39 in your head at the table, right?

and heres another example(to help me get this straight in my head), I have 12 outs on the flop, and villain is betting 3 into 7. Can I jsut say 3/10 to call, so 1/3, and my odds of hitting at 12/35 so roughly 1/3? Like is it ok to round off like that?

and yes the wheel chair song is hilarious. I think its one of the best family guy episodes.

simply use the percentage method. So to get an approx percentage simply multiply your outs times 2 and add 1 so if you have 12 outs you have around 25% of hitting your card in the next card. Now if your opp bets 3 into 7 then the total pot would be 10 so the percentage of the money your gonna put into the pot is 3/13 or 3:10 which is around 23% so you should call

http://www.pokertips.org/strategy/pot-odds.php
this web site explains pot odds in a very simple way.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by elanto

simply use the percentage method. So to get an approx percentage simply multiply your outs times 2 and add 1 so if you have 12 outs you have around 25% of hitting your card in the next card. Now if your opp bets 3 into 7 then the total pot would be 10 so the percentage of the money your gonna put into the pot is 3/13 or 3:10 which is around 23% so you should call

http://www.pokertips.org/strategy/pot-odds.php
this web site explains pot odds in a very simple way.

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This is something I havent payed a lot of attention to. Hard to figure on the fly for me when I'm 4 tabling. I cant imagine you guys who do 6-8 tables being able to do this, but I'm sure some can and do.

Anyhow, I just want to see if I have this right. If the percentage of your money going into the pot is equal to or lower than the pot odds for hitting your out, then it should be +ev to make the call. If your percentage of money going into the pot is higher than your pot odds to hit your out, then you should fold.

P.S. I havent read the link yet, but going to do that now.

"Anyhow, I just want to see if I have this right. If the percentage of your money going into the pot is equal to or lower than the pot odds for hitting your out, then it should be +ev to make the call. If your percentage of money going into the pot is higher than your pot odds to hit your out, then you should fold. "

yes that is right

Quote:

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Originally Posted by elanto

"Anyhow, I just want to see if I have this right. If the percentage of your money going into the pot is equal to or lower than the pot odds for hitting your out, then it should be +ev to make the call. If your percentage of money going into the pot is higher than your pot odds to hit your out, then you should fold. "

yes that is right

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Cool, makes perfect sense now. Now I just need to get better at figuring outs. Someone tell me if I have the right number of outs here, using the link above.

As Ks Flop is 4s 6s Jd

outs 9 spades, 3 Aces, 3 Kings, 4 Queens, 4 Tens = 23 outs.
or do you not count the QT and just have 15 outs?

I know this is kind of off the subject of pot odds, but it does pertain to figuring them.

bah... I mean if you guys say its true, I ugess I have to believe it. I just cant figure out why you would do 3/13, instead of 3/10. Like I just might be really tired. I guess it makes sense though...

so I should just ad up the pot, his bet, and what I have to call, then divide it by what I have to call. And then compare it to 2x+1 of my outs? correct?

btw I really hate just knowing the system, but not understand it. And thats why Im making this so hard, Im not trying to say you guys are wrong. I just dont get the underlying principles and it bothers me. And also this is really pretty embarassing that I dont know this shit :-\

yes boost what you said was right..
Rabid Dog you just count 15 outs. And thats only if your certain that an ace or a king will give you the winning hand.

elanto, thanks

Boost, youre really really close. Its a pretty confusing subject.

Personally, I printed out a chart with all the odds on it and taped it to my monitor. After a while I found I didn't need to use it.

A little longer, and I realize I've forgotten it. But I know the common ones... open ended straight? 4:1. flush? 4:1. Gutshot? 12:1. Wonderful two-outter to the set FTW!? 22:1.

Really, in practice you won't find yourself needing any others than that. I cant remember the last time I counted, "ok I have 15 outs. I need x:1 to call" pfft. I have 15 outs, there is almost NEVER a place (in limit, at least) where you don't have the odds to chase a 15 outter. Hell, you practically always have the odds to chase straights and flushes.

FWIW I believe the x:1 method works better for limit, and the % method works beter for No Limit.

euph, yah, I think I knew some of this stuff before but never cemented it into my brain. The way I play isnt really requiring me to call too much, so that would explain why Im still a winning player. Im almost always setting up for a bluff when I make a call. The only time pot odds really become useful is when a short stack pushes into you and youve got like A9, but even here I dont really need to think about the pot odds too much, I just look at how much of my stack it will cost me, because Im almost always getting odds to call this.

It doesn't matter BUT you must use the same method when figuring your outs.

E.g, chance of hitting your 9 outer on the river is typically 9/46 (assuming all opponents cards are still face down) - approximatly 4:1 or 20%.

So, when you calcuate your pot odds (using odds or % - you have to compare them the same way!). Like you cannot say "well, the pot is laying me 1 in 5, but I have 4:1 to hit my flush, so it's an easy call". If fact it's 1 in 5 = 4:1, so it's EV neutral (not counting implied odds!)

Just make sure don't compare apples to oranges.

Guys, you're killing the poster with Math. I consider you all genius in the department, but lemme give a different perspective with a hand story...

I was in a live tournament this weekend with a good stack 4500+, and a fairly low blind level 25/50. We went to a limp flop 5 handed, and I held A5 suited clubs in LP. The flop came 22J with 2 clubs. The pot was 250. A person bet the flop 150, and got min raised to 300 by the person after them. I put this person on trip 2's. I called, and the original bettor (probably with some kind of J) also called. The pot was now 1150. The turn brought a non club 4. Now I had a flush draw and a gutshot. It was checked to the aggressor (holding trip 2's), and they bet 900. Being the next to act, my pot odds were shot to hell. The opponent had more than 5000 in their stack however (the other high stack at the table). Also, I knew this opponent to be a person almost incapable of dropping a strong hand to aggression.

What I deduced from this situation, is that I would get pretty good value on a flush, and I would absolutely drain his whole stack if I hit my gutshot. This gave me outstanding implied odds. A lot of things told me the opponent would put a lot of chips in the middle on a later street. They have trips, they make deep bad calls often, and I had 12 outs with 3 of them very deceptive. I called the 900, hit my miracle gutshot on the river, and proceeded to destack the opponent with haste.

That's what implied odds are from my perspective.

Very nice Rondavu.. tourneys are where draws shine generally, when the blinds are very small compared to stack sizes. One thing you said I didn't quite understand however: "A lot of things told me the opponent would put a lot of chips in the middle on a later street." What do you mean by that?

I think he meant that his opp was going to bet big on the river

Hi,

Im not quite getting this odds thing. Ive been reading on the forum that you need to place a half or three quarter pot sized bet in order to destroy drawing odds.

OK - theres $10 in the pot - flop comes comes down and gives me a flush draw. Opponenet bets $10 - thats $20 in the pot - i call $10 for a chance to win $20 - that's 2:1 odds. Flush drwaw with 2 cards to come is slightly less that 2:1 - therefore good call. Pot sized bet is not big enough.

So I dont see how a bet < that pot size will kill drawing odds.

Cheers

Theoretically, yes. In practice there are however a few problems:
- you're gonna have to pay for a likely turn raise to see the river if the turn doesn't give you your outs. So that's an extra cost to get your 1/3 to hit. On the turn alone it's roughly 1/6.
- basically you want a "margin" so you will actually be profitable in the long run
- often times some of your outs might be "poisoned", ie they are outs for your opponent too
- even if you hit, your opponent usually has outs of his own to beat you still

The thing that works in your favor is implied odds: When it hits and your opponent has no clue about this, he might keep raising, or if he doesn't, he might call your raise. So this adds to your profit if you hit. A good read on whether or not you expect your opponent to pay up if you hit is necessary to see if you should chase.

As a general rule.. don't pay more than half pot to chase. People do that for a reason.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Big Dazz

Hi,

Im not quite getting this odds thing. Ive been reading on the forum that you need to place a half or three quarter pot sized bet in order to destroy drawing odds.

OK - theres $10 in the pot - flop comes comes down and gives me a flush draw. Opponenet bets $10 - thats $20 in the pot - i call $10 for a chance to win $20 - that's 2:1 odds. Flush drwaw with 2 cards to come is slightly less that 2:1 - therefore good call. Pot sized bet is not big enough.

So I dont see how a bet < that pot size will kill drawing odds.

Cheers

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You are counting your odds based on both cards to come, so you are neglecting that you are probably going to have to call ANOTHER bet on the turn. E.g. You call the flop bet. And you don't get one of your 9 outs for the flush (which will happen more than 4 out of 5 times). The pot now has $30. Your opponent now bets $20. The only time you can safely count your outs for both streets still to come is when you or your opp would be going all-in when you make the call.

This is why I advocate determining your pot odds on a street by street basis.

I.e. in order for your call to be good JUST BASED ON POT ODDS on this flop you need to have 2:1 odds (or about a 33% chance) to hit your outs solely on the TURN.

OK

I think the reason im having trouble with this is that I'm converting from limit to no limit.

Cheers - nice one

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Rabid Dog

Now I just need to get better at figuring outs. Someone tell me if I have the right number of outs here, using the link above.

As Ks Flop is 4s 6s Jd

outs 9 spades, 3 Aces, 3 Kings, 4 Queens, 4 Tens = 23 outs.
or do you not count the QT and just have 15 outs?

I know this is kind of off the subject of pot odds, but it does pertain to figuring them.

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I think you only have 21 outs, because you are double counting the Queen and Ten of spades.

9 spades, 3 Aces, 3 Kings, 3 Queens, 3 Tens = 21 outs

Am I right or wrong?

EDIT: I realized I am off because you cannot count the Q or T becuase they will not give you a made hand. My calculation above was based on an OESD and a flush draw.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Big Dazz

OK

I think the reason im having trouble with this is that I'm converting from limit to no limit.

Cheers - nice one

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Here's a little example of why you better take a margin on your draw chasings.

So ok I get AQ suited clubs. Raise my standard 5BB, 2 callers, good. Flop is J84 with 2 clubs. One guy checks, I raise 1/2 pot. Drop out the guys who have nothing, and build a pot for those who want to join in since I have plenty of outs still. And I was the one raising preflop ofcourse, so c-bet. Third guy up calls, other folds. Turn gives 6c, giving me the nut flush. I raise 3/4 pot, other guy reraises me, I go all-in, guy calls. He had 88, hit his set on the flop. River gives a 6, I get stacked to his boat.

Chasing pot odds kinda goes on the premise that if you hit, you win. So here I "hit", but my opp still had 1 out to quads and 9 outs to a boat. So 10 outs on the river, which is around 22% to hit. In general even if you hit your straight, you can still be beaten by a higher straight, a flush, a boat, quads. Your flush can be beaten by a higher flush, a boat, quads. In this example I hit the nut flush and my opp still had over 1/5 to win. It'd be cool if the ones that are gonna pay up always have TP, but in reality they might have something better some of the time, either beating you or giving them outs to beat you, *even if you hit*. Hence take a margin on your chasing..