Pot roast, pot luck, and pot odds

OK ... 6 months into this poker thing and trying to get a grasp on pot odds and how to use them when betting. Specifically trying to determine how much is needed to worsen the odds for the opposing player. So I apologize if this is basic stuff but I want to understand the basics.

Scenario #1

10 person 25NL Ring - I'm in MP and put out 6xBB with something like KK or QQ. Let's say I get one caller behind and 4 previous limpers fold so the pot is at $4. Flop comes out ... say 4d 8d Jc. I want to bet enough to push the other guy off his flush draw (again I realize he could have any number of hands but let's use this for my lesson today).

I might put him on AKs so I believe he has 9 outs to the flush and 6 more for top pair. Based on what I have read, that gives him about 15 outs X 4% each or 60% chance of making a better hand.

So if I bet $10 ... pot is now $14 and he needs to call the $10 which is 71% of the pot ... is this the correct way to think about using pot odds?

Scenario #2

Same hand but I get 3 callers instead of just the one. If I'm in MP and 2 players ahead of me check on the flop, how do I modify the betting amount to take into account that if I get one caller on the $10 ... the others see much better pot odds when the pot (and bet decision) gets to them?

Again, I am trying to learn how to use the pot odds when betting. I try to apply them when it's my turn to call/raise/check/fold. Thanks to all.

Scenario 1 - yes that is the correct way to think about it, but by raising $10 into a $4 pot with $25 stacks, you're now pot commited and by your read are behind. You are better off raising the pot amount, $4, and seeing what the turn card is.

Scenario 2- same sort of thing. $10 pot commits you. You are better off pushing then betting $10. You would be better of making it $4 or $5 on the flop.

It is right to think about the pot odds for someone else...but very tough to put them on an exact hand...example 1, he may have AK but to have AKs in the suit on the board is very unlikely and you are never going to bet enough to get him out of the hand. 16 ways to deal AK with only 1 way to deal AKs in your suit, chances are he doesn't have it. Bet enough to get the other AK combinations out, ie 2/3 - pot. He will let you know if he has 15 outs...if he does, bet the turn when a blank hits and he will not be getting good enough odds.

If there are two people in the hand, same thing, chances are both people don't want to play with their hands...bet the flop like you normally do, if both call and a blank falls on the turn, bet the pot on the turn, they will not the getting the odds now since there is only one card to come. Do not start overbetting every pot because your opponents could have something...get into a habit of betting pretty much the same amount every hand as this will keep your opponents guessing as to what you have.

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Originally Posted by AHiltz

Scenario 1 - yes that is the correct way to think about it, but by raising $10 into a $4 pot with $25 stacks, you're now pot commited and by your read are behind.

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Thanks for response. But I don't understand (again ... reading and learning) why I would be behind. I suspect that is because he has more outs than I. Correct? If that is the case, it would seem any high PP is behind on a flush heavy flop.

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Originally Posted by KingLizard

Scenario #1

10 person 25NL Ring - I'm in MP and put out 6xBB with something like KK or QQ. Let's say I get one caller behind and 4 previous limpers fold so the pot is at $4. Flop comes out ... say 4d 8d Jc. I want to bet enough to push the other guy off his flush draw (again I realize he could have any number of hands but let's use this for my lesson today).

I might put him on AKs so I believe he has 9 outs to the flush and 6 more for top pair. Based on what I have read, that gives him about 15 outs X 4% each or 60% chance of making a better hand.

So if I bet $10 ... pot is now $14 and he needs to call the $10 which is 71% of the pot ... is this the correct way to think about using pot odds?

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First off, opening for 6xBB seems a little steep.

As for betting $10 into a $4 pot, this is overkill. Yes, you want to discourage people drawing to a flush. However, ultimately
(a) if someone is going to draw, they are doing to draw (read the sticky entitled "you cannot make someone fold")
(b) the aim isn't to drive people out of the pot, the aim is to have people drawing to the flush for the incorrect price. In the long term, you want people drawing for their hand because they will miss more than they hit and this is how you make money.

As for having 15 outs x4 this is assuming that one of you is all in. The odds of drawing to the flush on a card-by-card basis is 1 in 5 (~20%), so you only need to offer pot odds worse than 4:1.

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Originally Posted by KingLizard

Scenario #2

Same hand but I get 3 callers instead of just the one. If I'm in MP and 2 players ahead of me check on the flop, how do I modify the betting amount to take into account that if I get one caller on the $10 ... the others see much better pot odds when the pot (and bet decision) gets to them?

Again, I am trying to learn how to use the pot odds when betting. I try to apply them when it's my turn to call/raise/check/fold. Thanks to all.

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Again, largely based on the above. All you can do is offer incorrect odds to draw to their hand and you will make money in the long term.

Seriously though, read the sticky. It's very good.

Starsey, I have indeed read the post and hence my original question. How much is enough? I am trying to understand the basics so I can apply pressure correctly.

As for the 6xBB, that was just an example to get my pot amounts to work out. I typically raise 4xBB with all my "playable hands". Sometimes tho I do mix it up.

Thanks for the response.

6xbb at 25nl is standard

4xbb gets 12 callers

lol renton ... 12 ?? People observing the table get to call too? :) I gotta play on that site !!

I play 20max full ring

20max.. wow.. that means 1 out of every 5 rounds someone will be packing either AA or KK. And half the time someone at the table will have AA, KK or AK. Sounds like an uber-tight sleepfest kinda game :P

Which site is that Renton?

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I might put him on AKs so I believe he has 9 outs to the flush and 6 more for top pair. Based on what I have read, that gives him about 15 outs X 4% each or 60% chance of making a better hand.

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Use this calculation only up to 9 outs. Above that subtract 4 to get closer to the real percentage. 15x4-4=56% to win. You can simply NOT give him bad pots here. That should be obvious too.. since he has more 50% chance to win, it's impossible to put him at a disadvantage.

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So if I bet $10 ... pot is now $14 and he needs to call the $10 which is 71% of the pot ... is this the correct way to think about using pot odds?

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No this is wrong. He has to bet $10 into what will be a $24 pot so he has to bet 41.7%.

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16 ways to deal AK with only 1 way to deal AKs in your suit, chances are he doesn't have it.

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Nitpicking, but there are 2 ways to deal this hand, not 1. A or K can be up front.

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Originally Posted by Buzz

Which site is that Renton?

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roffle

Oh yeah.. kinglizard. I already posted this in another thread, but I'll reiterate this here. The way you discourage draw-chasers is mostly preflop. Postflop it is nearly impossible barring you go all-in.

Here is the math:

$10 pot, you make
a) 1/2 pot bet, he has to commit for 25%
b) pot size bet, he has to commit for 33%
c) 2x pot size bet, he has to commit for 40%
So you see.. once he is in, you'll have to bet BIG to discourage him. That's why it is easier to discourage him PREFLOP:

If we look at the big picture, you raise $5, he raises $5 with a suit.
8 times out of 9: no flush draw.
1 times out of 9: flush draw.
So he gets bad pot odds to chase a 'possible' flush draw preflop.

(btw read my previous post too, because your math is way off and if you go play by these "odds" you'll make big mistakes)

About how multiple limpers affect pot odds.. interesting question. Will do the math later and get back to you.

Remember, you don't want to discourage chasers, but have them chase with bad odds. If you overbet too much, that will have the effect of scaring away worse hands that would have paid you off, and only being called by hands that beats you.

I think there's some very good conversation going on in this thread.

All I'm going to say is this: Assuming your opponent has a certain hand is fine in a mathematical bubble, but in an actual hand, it's quite dangerous.

For example in hand 1, you put Opponent on AK2, and assume the suit matches the board. Again, that's great for mathematical exercises, but the real world isn't so neat.

You're better to put your opponent on a range of hands, and play against the median of that range. Overbetting the pot here would be a mathematically right play if you could see your opponent's hole cards. But you can't.

So you say to yourself something more along the lines of this... "My opponent could have a plethora of hands here, and some I'm well ahead of, and some I'm behind." You then bet to the middle of that range.

You can focus more on specific situations on the turn when you have more info, and easier math. It's almost always a tactical error to bet more than the pot, no matter what your opponent has.

Alrighty I did the math. God my head hurts. The results are pretty interesting though! I might post up the whole math, so others can review it and fidget with it etc, but for now I'll stick to a general rundown:

Actually, the conclusions justify what the expertienced players have been doing intuitively! This gives me confidence I did the math right :)

So here it is:

First we make a bunch of assumptions:

Person A is a draw-chaser holding a suited connector. He will win if he gets anything that tops one pair.
Person B has high cards and will hit TPTK on the flop.
Person B will raise postflop.
Other people in the pot will fold after person B raises postflop, so it's heads-on between the draw-chaser and the TPTK guy after that.
Person A will fold postflop if he gets nothing.

I've varied 2 parameters: There are 2, 3, 4 or 5 people in the pot; And person B (with TPTK) will raise 1/2xpot, 1xpot or 2xpot. This gives 12 combinations.

Alright then. The more people in the pot, the more profitable it is to chase a draw. Ofcourse that is intuitively obvious. "Only chase a draw in position if there are enough limpers." Well, what are the exact numbers?

2 people in the pot (so noone besides our two protagonists) gives a chaser bad odds. 3 people in the pot give him slightly bad pot odds. 4 people in the pot give him slightly good pot odds. 5+ people in the pot is a DEFINITE go if you hold a suited connector!

Ok, now here's the surprise: Might be counter-intuitive, but the more you raise postflop, the better pot odds you give the draw chaser! Weird isn't it? We would expect the opposite. Ideally you would want to bet nothing! But ofcourse you have to bet just enough to make him fold if he has nothing. (otherwise the assumption that he will fold if he gets nothing doesn't hold out anymore)

That is why people say, raise 1/2-3/4 pot! They don't say 2-3x the pot.

Now, how is it possible that postflop raises give draw-chasers good odds? Simple. Let's look at what can happen:
I'm holding a suited connector, flop comes around:
a) 73% I get nothing
b) 11% I get a flush draw
c) 11% I get a straight draw
d) 5% I get something bigger: straight, flush, 2 pair, trips, 4 of a kind, full house

It is mainly because of this 5% that postflop raises hurt a raiser. Anything raised postflop will go directly to the stack of the draw chaser.

Ofcourse, this is math, not an actual poker game. If you can't capitolize on the times you 'hit something big' with a chase, you kill your own pot odds. Similarly, if you routinely get destacked the very moment a chaser hits something, he'll even get good 'pot odds' at 3 people!

This is where 'good poker play' gives you an edge over exact pot odds.

In my calculations I have assumed the following:

1. in the 5% chance person A hits something big, person B will keep raising at his preset amount, both after the turn and the river. (so half pot, pot or twice pot)
=> so if you lure your opponent into committing more to the pot in this case, your pot odds increase. If you are on the other end of the table, and you can 'sense' he has hit something big and you bail out, you ruin his pot odds too. So good poker play can change these odds.

2. In the 22% of either a straight draw or a flush draw, if the flush hits on the turn, person B will keep raising his set amount, with person A calling til the showdown. If the flush does not hit the table on the turn, person A will call the raise from person B. If the flush consecutively hits on the river, then person B will call the river-raise, otherwise he will fold. Same in the case of a straight.
=> Again, good poker play gives you better odds, regardless of what the math says. If you can't milk your opponent for the most when you hit your straight/flush, this isn't very profitable. If you can destack him, all the better. Or the other way around, if you can minimize your losses if your opponent 'connects' his straight or flush, you improve your chances.

Another important note:

Say you are person B and you KNOW your opponent is either chasing a draw or chasing a flush, then you need to bet 2x the pot or more to give him bad pot odds.
(remember.. you have to be certain he is chasing and not holding onto triplets or something, because in this case you are burning yourself)

To be more specific: 2x the pot gives a flush-chaser bad pot odds, 1.5x the pot gives a straight-chaser bad pots.

In the unlikely event your opp is chasing both, ie a double-ended straight flush draw, he has the best odds to win whatever you raise.

If we turn the tables.. to be on the safe side, don't pay more than 1x the pot if chasing a draw postflop. And if you are holding a DE str-flush draw, pay ANYTHING your opp throws at you to chase. You have 56% to win.

That's it for now :)

EDIT: ah what the heck, to be complete I'll post the math:

POT: $10

x = bet-size preflop
y = bet-size pstflop

2 people: x=5
3 people: x=3.33
4 people: x=2.5
5 people: x=2

1/2 pot raise: y=5
1x pot raise: y=10
2x pot raise: y=20

Formula (with the assumptions explained above)

-(0.73) (x)................... (1)
-(0.11)(1.32) (x+y)...... (2)
+(0.05)(10+4y)........... (3)
+(0.11)(0.68)(10+2y).. (4)

(1): what you lose in the 73% chance you nothing on the flop
(2): what you lose if you get a straight or flush draw but nothing on the turn+river
(3): what you win in the 5% chance you hit something big on the flop (2 pair, trips, flush, etc)
(4): what you win if you chase a draw and you get your flush/straight on the turn+river
NOTE: for simplicity.. because these are big uncertainties, I've run under the assumption that any possible raise after the turn the chaser has to pay to see the river, is offset by the implied odds of his win in the case either turn or river give him his chased hand. Under the current model, these assumptions are pretty much valid since about 1/3 of the time you will win 4y this way and 2/3 of the time you will lose 2y, evening each other out.

Any math buff is more than welcome to check my math, or recalculate with different assumptions (ie different odds).

/next up: to calculate the odds your opponent gets 'something' (pair or better) for any given hand, on the flop, and then turn, and river. Will try to get that done tomorrow.

Many thanks to all who replied. Time to practice those lessons at the tables.

lol
pot committed

thats a whole seperate arguement :P

Knowing your pot odds really pays off. I'm in this MTT now with $19000 prizemoney (just started) and because I had done all the pot odds calculations before, I quickly calculated a positive and went with a straight draw even though it kinda cringed.. and it hit. Destacked a guy. So now I can play a bit more relaxed lol :P. Hope for the big hands to come. Only problem is this has rebuys, and the guy I tossed out is already back.. ah well, it's just to see what "big money tournaments" are like anyway :)