Bluffing

Yeah another post by jack clogging these forums lol :P. This time about my biggest leak, bluffing.

At 6max, bluffing becomes twice as important because: fewer players means on average worse hands to go around than in 10max. So more susceptible to bluff. Plus the blinds cycle around a lot faster, so you'll need revenue even if you're packing squat.

So ok.. my bluff is seriously my biggest leak atm. What I kinda seem to do is along these lines:
- "Ok he checked, maybe I can bluff him out!" (so I become totally predictable I guess and even the biggest idiots start to slowplay me to bleed me dry)
- "Ok he called my bluff, we're now on the turn, I'm out I guess.. time to 'check' and see what he really has." (but often times people will call it once to see if you mean it.. I think..)
- Even total idiots figure out I'm bluffing a lot of the time. Dunno why. I am somehow horribly transparant at it!
- "Ok this bluff worked! Great! Time to do it again soon!" (probably the reason why I become so easily readable even by feeble-minded opponents?)
- "I can't bluff too big.. because maybe he really has something.." (probably makes me only do weak bluffs..)
- "should I only bluff against one opponent?" (not a clue)
- "pf I feel lost.. he raises.. is HE bluffing now? No clue anymore.." (and then I call his all-in and get destacked by KK)
etc

Any pointers, any insight really would be very helpful!

i have the same problems sometimes. would love to here how to combat this.

I'm tempted to go do some math.. calculate how often someone will hit 'something' from different sorts of starting hands.. and how often a hand will improve on the turn (and river). Also calculate how often it will be "something good" (because even MP you can bluff out). Maybe this'll help me understand the power of bluffing better.

So when I get around to doing this, and actually get it figured out, I'll post up some results.

EDIT: btw I think the main problem with bluffing is that if you don't really have a 'system' (ie a systematic way) to bluff, you're going to bluff by impulse, and even a dolt can sniff this out with his eyes closed.

Typical impulse-bluff reactions are:
- This seems like a great position to bluff.. let's give it a try!
- Oh this bluff worked! Cool! Let's try it again soon!
- Damn my bluff got called.. time to bail out quick.
- Damn, I got burnt on a bluff.. better play safe for a while!
- I folded to this guy and he showed his cards and he had NOTHING! Next time I'm calling him out no matter what!
- Pff I'm getting nothing so many hands in a row.. time to bluff!
- I wanna bluff but not too high.. cuz that's scary!
etc

This is typical predictable noob-play I think. If you bluff, you have to do it in a systematic way. I'm trying to figure out what that is :)

Do you have PokerTracker and PokerAce Hud yet?

If so, you might be able to plug your leak by refraining from bluffing loose-passives.

There's a PT stat called "went to showdown percent" if its over abour 30-35 (optimum for a good player is 20-25) then don't bother bluffing because it doesn't work enough.

I think I'm gonna give that poker tracker thing a try.

But anyway, at lower limits there seems to be an abundance of tight-passives, or something inbetween tight and loose really. Against these bluff is crucial to win quicker. Otherwise you're playing 5 hours for a $5 win.

A friend of mine who is pretty good at poker played at my place, multi-tabled (back when I barely knew the rules of NLHE, little less than 2 weeks ago) and he routinely threw out huge bluffs, and I even saw him show his cards after bluffing and winning a huge pot with absolutely nothing. He said to taunt his opponents.. I guess it throws people off their game to flash this in their face. (I know it did for me yesterday.. got destacked a few minutes later by the same guy, argh)

So yeah.. I wanna incorporate bluffing into my 6max game! :)

Bluffing is as sacred to me as motherhood, apple pie and big titties.

But most people don't understand the best part about bluffing. When I play my good hands really fast, they give me too much action because I *might* be bluffing.

Jack you should read Theory of Poker. It goes into an almost unnecessary large amount of detail about bluffing theory.

Basically it says you should bluff a small percentage of the time, so it effectively increases your chances for winning any given pot to at least the pot odds you are getting for the bluff. Bluffing any less than that is too little to be profitable, and bluffing any more than that causes your bluffs to be less effective, since you are doing it so much and people pin you as a bluffer.

For example, say you are up against someone who you put on TPTK, and you are on a 8 out straight draw with two cards to come, and the board has potential flush AND straight draws. You are ~~35% to win with your straight, but the way you are playing the hand, villain will think you could be chasing either draw. Say you miss your draw on the turn or river, but the a third card of the suit comes off the deck.

Now if you represent that flush 30% of the time, and your bluff works 1 in two times, you've increased your winning chances for the hand from 35% to 50%. If you rep the flush less than 30% of the time, you still lose money on the hand in the long run, and if you represent the flush 100% of the, your bluff will be less credible against aware players whom you have a history with.

I think what Fnord is getting at is that he bluffs just the right amount to instill doubt and confusion into his opponents, no more and no less.

The theory is sound I just wonder for beginners at micro limits whether its worth it ... I do use PT and GT+ and the majority of players at that level will call you down with almost anything. I'll only try the bluff against players rated "rock" at 5nl, even they will call sometimes, but against the rest I think its just tossing money away too often.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Renton

Basically it says you should bluff a small percentage of the time, so it effectively increases your chances for winning any given pot to at least the pot odds you are getting for the bluff. Bluffing any less than that is too little to be profitable, and bluffing any more than that causes your bluffs to be less effective, since you are doing it so much and people pin you as a bluffer.

---

Aha. I'm bluffing too much now, that's for sure. But then, how much is just enough? 10% of the time?..

Quote:

---

For example, say you are up against someone who you put on TPTK, and (..snip..) the hand in the long run, and if you represent the flush 100% of the, your bluff will be less credible against aware players whom you have a history with.

---

Very interesting, I like it when I would be able to "calculate" my bluffs into pot odds etc. That would give me a nice system to go on. It's still a blur atm.. your example, while I like it a lot, seems very situational. I'll have to think about this some more.

Quote:

---

I think what Fnord is getting at is that he bluffs just the right amount to instill doubt and confusion into his opponents, no more and no less.

---

Yeah I'd like to find that balance too haha :).. but how often is this, on average, in practice? Do these stats roll out of your poker tracker? ^^

(btw seems I can't use poker tracker.. it doesn't support unibet, where I play out..)

@buzz: Maybe I should go play where you play. At unibet, people don't just call anything.. and then I'm selecting tables with the highest showdown percentages. Btw, don't forget this is 6max.. at 10max I wouldn't readily bluff either. At 6max, due to quickly circling blinds and "less people=crappier overall hands" bluffing is actually a valid and even necessary strategy!

Depending on how low your stakes are, I'd recommend bluffing VERY little. Probably only c-bets, and don't go too gratuitously on them either.

It also depends on whether you play tourneys or ring. Bluffing tends to be a little more successful in tourneys, particularly in the endgame.

I'm playing 5nl at Stars atm and was playing 2nl previously at UB. Over the last few weeks I've found that you virtually have to go all in to bluff, most other bets get called often enough to make it a negative play overall. Even pushes don't get a lot of respect if the table is loose ... thats where Pokertracker and Gametime + are really, really useful!

Ok I will try that I think.. a VERY occasional bluff, when there are like many options open that I can scare an opponent into having.

Another thing I have noticed a friend of mine doing, like when the flop is 3QQ is to throw out a big raise "to see if anyone has the Q".

Btw Renton have you played a lot of 6max? It's really very different from 10max.

But I think that I'll adjust my strategy. Instead of playing too tight and trying to scoop up money through the occasional bluff, I'll just increase my starting hands and bluff only rarely. I've calculated some starting hands and came out at 25.69%. So if I stick to this, I can play 1/4 hands, which is decent at 6max I think.

(this 25% comes from: 15.5% I'll play in all positions, 5.7% I'll play only from late position, and the third factor comes from the 1/6 occurence I'm on the bb and I can check with "anything" if no raises before me, which I put at 50% chance from experience. So that makes 15.5%+(0.5)(5.7%)+(1/6)(1/2)(82%)~= 25%)

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by jackvance

Btw Renton have you played a lot of 6max? It's really very different from 10max.

---

I forgot you play 6-max. Yes you will probably need to bluff a little more there. I don't play much 6-max. I like to play a lot of tables, so I can't rely so much on reads, which are essential to 6-max.

for a few recent months I played only 1 or 2 6max tables at the penny and nickel tables to develop my game and reading ability like you're doing. I also agree w/ the bluff little and mostly with c-bets comment...at this level they are really bad and call down a lot...learning to bluff is related to your hand-reading ability, and reading is real hard vs. call stations

If I can add anything, it'd be notice the ones who call call call aka call stations (most players at this level) and NEVER bluff them (except some pfr + cbet), then when you have a real big hand (set on fairly uncoordinated or two-toned boards, high flush, str8 etc.), and someone bets at you try putting out a MASSIVE raise -- lots of them will think your bluffing. Also notice the maniacs (the ones who raise like every single time but almost never fold), and never bluff them, but if you get a hand, check/call, check/raise all in or something similar with top pair or better. Hope that helps.

Thx guys, already much better. I actually wonder how I managed to screw around against these low limit folk so much! Nothing to it to part them with their money.. guess I'll blame it on newbie-nervousness.

i think I really need to invest in pokertracker and pokerace hud whatever that is.

does cold bluffing and semi-bluffing to build pots and utilize implied odds fall into the same category?

i feel i take down a pretty good amount of pots using cold bluffs and low or mid pair, what i call, "bluffs," where I represent the best hand.

Just some thoughts at the micro level since I play the penny games allot on PS.

Typically I have found the average player rates in a SLAA range (by average VP$IP and aggressiveness factors), but a majority of players (by the number of players) are fish, calling stations, and rocks. I think overall I may run into a TAGG once a day on the average.

I have both PokerTracker and PokerAce and here's how I typically will find a somewhat decent bluff workable.

Using PokerAce of course to display player stats from PokerTracker, I look at three key pieces of information:

WTSD%: If they are under 35%, a bluff is liklely to work, but I only like to bluff only when I have at least middle pair with a decent kicker (I play TAGG or at the very worst SLAA depending on what gets dealt to me) and I'm in a later postion seeing no real strengths prior to me.

Folded to Continuations Bets >50% and at least 4 c-bet hands of data: Continuation bets are great to use as a bluff if they Fish or Rocks and have folded often to C-bets. This though may be classified not as a bluff (even if you have little to no hand), it can truly work most of the time. You don't have to risk very much either. I don't try this to calling stations though (see WTSD% above).

Auto-Rank Icon: Rocks, Fish, sLPP, & sLAP (passive post flop usually) players are good representations of people easily to bluff. If they are anything else, I WILL NOT BLUFF AT ALL! Any post-flop aggression player can lead to a disaster if called. Typicalling calling stations are not a great player to try this to though.

If I get a flush draw and a open ended stright draw, I will occassionally bluff even to the aggressive players I am playing and depending on how many people are in the pot (especially if I have the ace in my hand, or K if the Ace is on the board). Considering with this kind of hand I have a 60% chance of hitting the flush/str8. But I wont push unless i a late postion and nothing but small bets.

Yeah, using these percentages to see when and how much to bluff are great guidelines. But from my experience (as I don't have such tools) if I can see a guy play a few hands that go to showdown, I generally have a good read on his thinking patterns in case I want to calculate if a bluff would be successful or not.

Whether to bluff or not depends a lot on the preflop raise, position (because in bluffs it is essential to have information on your opponent's hand) and the particularities of the flop. As an example, if I know this guy likes even a MP, then after a preflop raise and a flop that could very well have given him "something", a medium-sized bet to bluff/c-bet him out is a bad idea. I would need a huge bet to bluff him out of his little holdings, which is ofcourse stupid against this sort of player for cost/pay-off considerations. Against a player who on the other hand plays a more cautious game (ie fold below TP) then a c-bet or a bluff after he checks is more of an option.

In my experience bluffing further than c-betting is pretty pointless in low stakes games. I mean when your getting called all in with middle pair, why bother? Further on a sight like PP it seems that its also completely unneccary. Most of these guys seem to be completely oblivious to even some one who is set mining. I mean if I'm doing nothing for 50 hands and all the sudden I'm reraising you, why are you pushing me with TPMK?

In a typical 10NL game, there are people who are very willing to pay up with crap hands, bluffing against those is almost never a good idea. Here you mainly wait for a hand and then take their money. But there are also people there who don't pay up so easily. (yes they do exist) You will really need to hit your set when they hit their tptk to make them pay up. And against those people, well timed bluffs work.

Another type that bluffs work against, and this is the most common one you'll be able to launch bluffs at in 10NL, is the one who always standard bets to the value of how he judges his hand. A decent hand=normal raise. If he's really happy with his hand, big raise. If he doubts it, check/fold. So if you know they have nothing, and you have nothing either, a hard enough bluff will take the pot. It doesn't even matter if his hand valueing is way off. If he liked his hand, he woulda shown it in his betting behavior. If he thinks a flush draw is worth a pot-sized bet, then don't bluff when he has that lol.

Ofcourse you will need to know what kind of person you are up against.

I play quite a lot at the 6-max tables on vcpoker and seem 2 have found a happy (and more importantly, profitable) balance. In general, straight up cold bluffing i won't bother with, as ppl just play so much looser short-handed. However, i am happy to loosen up my pre-flop selection, and look to be raising a hand if im gonna play it. In contrast though, if someone else is raising me pre-flop, i tighten up my hand selection, and other than pps, i dont wanna be playing anything worse than AQo really. If i catch any piece of the flop, im gonna represent it. As mentioned above, one of the advantages of this, is that if people see you taking down pots on MP, they are gonna start paying you off on bigger hands. Also, in the face of this aggression, most ppl seem to turn in2 primarily call-stations and are very reluctant to come over the top of my bets. The advantage here, is that you can essentially pick the prices you're willing to pay on 4th/5th street (always stick a strong 70/80% pot bet on flop), if you're feeling suspicious about being slow-played. Also, if you do hit the nuts, slow down on that there river. If i had a $ (and in general its a lot more :-p) for every time someone comes over the top at a sign of weakness on the river i'd have ummm.... more $'s than i have at the moment :)

1st post for me on FTR, probably bin lurking here long enough, time to try n get involved in the community i figure.

Hey Jack people aren't calling you because they have great reads and you're being transparent. They're calling because you have $5 on the table. Or because they're lose stakes donks who don't fold. Adapt.

you need to remember that 6 max is not all that different from 10 max. It's still texas holdem.

The other day I was playing 50NL 6 max for the first time in my life 'cos I was trying to clear empire bonus and there weren't enough full ring tables and I absolutely crushed it without deviating too much (I play 200NL normally, which probably helps)

pre flop you can just play as if you're in MP or LP. I say KJo is about the borderline for opening UTG. Don't limp also. if you're playing a low pair or SC, you either raise or fold (you can call a raise).

post flop you can either play conservatively... OR since this post is about bluffing you have to get in there and make lots of bets and RAISES. Raise with a good hand, raise with a draw, raise with a missed AK, raise with shit. If in doubt just raise. Don't ALWAYS bet if checked to. Do it about 90% though if you've made the PFR. You have to also play your good hands fast. Also, semi bluffs are king. The free card raise should be employed often. If you're in the BB with absolute rubbish then you don't generally bluff.

Leading into the pre flop raiser is something I like to do. Do it when u call in the BB with SC/PP and flop with trips or 2 pair or a made hand, and if they raise you just come over the top of them. You can even do it with a draw (a 13 out you definitely lead-3bet). Read the board too... if you're in BB and the flop comes 257 then u have a credible bluffing opportunity. if you call a raise with 66 and the board is AK10 well i just check fold.

After that its just feel and reads. Remember that you *do* get streaks of bad cards where you can't really do much (people open when ur on the button, etc.) and you'll lose money. It happens. Wait for decent pre flop hands and then push them to the limit. PT helps as well

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by tonyj444

1st post for me on FTR, probably bin lurking here long enough, time to try n get involved in the community i figure.

---

Welcome tony.