Originally Posted by johnny_fish
This hand doesn't really matter, I just wanted some insights/comments about pushing draws (or generally 40-60 hands) in general. Fold equity and, to a lesser extent, table image interests me.
Anyway, my reasoning about this particular hand:
His UTG+2 6BB raise indicates AQ+/JJ+. His flop bet into 3 opps gives further evidence for an overpair.
Board: 4s 5h 6s
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 39.3939 % 38.59% 00.81% { 7h7s }
Hand 2: 60.6061 % 59.80% 00.81% { JJ+ }
EV=F x ( 102+231.8) + (1-F) x .394 x (463.6+49) - 231.8
Assuming F=.50, then EV is +35$, rake not included (break-even point is at 23%, it almost surely is higher than that, since overcards will fold).
Results: Call by QQ, which held up.
With hindsight, I probably should've raised to 120. That looks less like a semi-bluff, so FE increases.
Did anyone notice Villain could have put me on a trapping AA?