Comments please

Did I screw this up?

Hand #163487023
Started: Wed Dec 28 20:49:35 2005

Hero is at seat 1 with 60.47
drchris12 is at seat 2 with 29.55
Moneyman6 is at seat 3 with 14.76
hervasbg is at seat 4 with 182.55
r8ed is at seat 5 with 50.74
Pablo109 is at seat 6 with 26.12
snøtiger is at seat 7 with 23.50
moped222 is at seat 8 with 25.00
rico56 is at seat 9 with 51.12
dougal28 is at seat 10 with 22.30

hervasbg posts the large blind 0.25
Moneyman6 posts the small blind 0.12

Moneyman6: --, --
hervasbg: --, --
r8ed: --, --
Pablo109: --, --
snøtiger: --, --
moped222: --, --
rico56: --, --
dougal28: --, --
Hero: Ac, Qc
drchris12: --, --

Pre-flop:

r8ed: Fold
Pablo109: Call 0.25
snøtiger: Call 0.25
moped222: Call 0.25
rico56: Call 0.25
dougal28: Call 0.25
Hero: Raise 1.25
drchris12: Fold
Moneyman6: Fold
hervasbg: Call 1.25
Pablo109: Call 1.25
snøtiger: Fold
moped222: Call 1.25
rico56: Call 1.25
dougal28: Call 1.25

Flop (Board: 2s, Ad, Jd) (Pot=7.25):

hervasbg: Check
Pablo109: Check
moped222: Check
rico56: Check
dougal28: Check
Hero: Bet 5.00
hervasbg: Fold
Pablo109: Call 5.00
moped222: Fold
rico56: Fold
dougal28: Fold

Turn (Board: 2s, Ad, Jd, Kh) (Pot=17.5):

Pablo109: Check
Hero: Bet 9.00
Pablo109: Call 9.00

River (Board: 2s, Ad, Jd, Kh, Qd) (Pot=35.5):

Pablo109: All in
Hero: Call 10.87

Showdown:

Pablo109 shows: Kd, 4d (ace high flush)

Fold the river. Look at all the hands that beat you there: any ten, AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AK, any two diamonds. Some of those are unlikely but at least a few are quite likely, and considering the number of fish that came into this pot, you know the one that decided to call you probably had one of the above. If you take a bad player who calls a couple good-sized bets and then pushes all in on the river, they hit. 90% of the time they are way, way ahead of you.

I'm with Dale on this one. On the turn for me, I'm probably going to push. You showed here that you're not scared of a flush or trips by calling the river, so why not be the aggressor on the turn and make him really pay to chase it? Kill his odds. He got almost 3:1 on the river to chase. Lets also not forget, a single T beats you here too. Maybe you just got caught up with the excitement of hitting two pair on the river not realizing how devistating it was overall? I think Dale nails it though, this should be an easy (though not fun) fold on the river.

What I got caught up in is worrying about AJ, AK. On the turn I bet small expecting to lay it down to a CR when AK, AJ raised me. What that did though is give the flush decent odds to chase. My analysis was that it wasn’t terrible in any respect but a larger turn bet would have been better which would leave less money behind to call the river. After he hits his K on the turn he isn’t folding even to an AI but I couldn’t have known that then.

So lets see…on the turn I should bet $14 or so leaving only $5.87 to call on the river. The problem I see with that is that I leave no room to get away from the hand if AJ, AK are out there. But I think that is the best line.