Set Hunting overrated?

i've been doing the multirock campout for a month or so now, and results were great at first but have recently started getting very ... "mixed". A lot of this has been at sites without good HH retrieval, so I can't do a massive dB analysis, but from memory it seems like.

50% of sets don't get paid off much, maybe 5-10 BB. I'll bet these out if there are realistic draws (2 suited, 2 cards 9+)
25-30% get cracked.
Maybe 10% double me up properly, another 10% pay 15+BB.

Since sets come around so rarely, I'm not seeing the monstrous happy ROI that I want. What are your experiences? Does this just sound like a cold run? Or is this about normal and patience is the key?

It depends on the stakes you're playing, really. If you play a small stake game with a lot of fish you'll get paid off more often. It also depends if you raise pre-flop, because if you do then you'll go heads up or three-way, and if you hit there's less of a shot that they'll get cracked. On the contrary, if you limp in and the pot is unraised a lot of hands that wouldn't normally be in now can flop something like a fluke straight or at least a draw to one. You'll get paid off more by limping but you will get cracked from time to time. I usually will make a small raise with a PP, just to attempt to get the blinds to fold their hands.

Seems like lately when I do hit, I'm seeing highly coordinated flops and have to bet full pot. But last weekend I had a night where I was hitting flops left and right and getting paid. They seem to be streaky and you have to be on the right tables to make some money.

If you look over your stats you should see that besides PPs, there aren't many other profitable hands. Just don't call raises preflop over the 10x rule...or you can adjust it to higher if you wish.

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If you look over your stats you should see that besides PPs, there aren't many other profitable hands. Just don't call raises preflop over the 10x rule...or you can adjust it to higher if you wish.

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Adjust it higher??

It's already to high :)

You should be paying up to ~5%-6% .. not 10%

LeFou, PT tells me it is.

Of my top 10 winning hands. NINE of them are pocket pairs. AA QQ JJ TT 55 KK 77 99 88. Hands like 55 and 77 are only up there because of hitting sets. I guess it depends on the player themselves, but sets have always been very good to me.

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Originally Posted by Laeelin

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If you look over your stats you should see that besides PPs, there aren't many other profitable hands. Just don't call raises preflop over the 10x rule...or you can adjust it to higher if you wish.

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Adjust it higher??

It's already to high :)

You should be paying up to ~5%-6% .. not 10%

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I meant it in the way you state it. Like you and the other guy should have stacks at least 13x the raise.

With tight tables it's def harder to get paid off on sets since the better players have adjusted to know when they're up against one.With loose passives though you'll def cash in.

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Originally Posted by r8ed

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Originally Posted by Laeelin

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If you look over your stats you should see that besides PPs, there aren't many other profitable hands. Just don't call raises preflop over the 10x rule...or you can adjust it to higher if you wish.

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Adjust it higher??

It's already to high :)

You should be paying up to ~5%-6% .. not 10%

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I meant it in the way you state it. Like you and the other guy should have stacks at least 13x the raise.

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I was wondering, makes sense now :)

Tight players don't get paid as much as lose players, its the fact of life. If mr.tight limps in UTG and then calls my raise when i have AA and calls pot sized bet on a rag flop i know hes not chasing a draw with something like 56s, so i will slow down, but against mr.loose i will continue to bet aggresivley because the possibility of him fishing around very realistic, but if he indeed has a set, well i just have to pay him off.

Tight players further complicate getting paid off by getting tricky and tending to under-bet the pot. Unless they have an aggro player like me trapped with a second best I just can't (or fail to) get away from, it's difficult to get all the money in.

The image of double up cloud peoples minds, and they overvalue what they might get from a set.

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Originally Posted by Seabass

The image of double up cloud peoples minds, and they overvalue what they might get from a set.

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Indeed. I rarely take their stack with a set. More likely it will just be a nice pot…like I’ll take one quarter of their stack. I just play it aggressively hoping they play back at me so I know when I can push and expect to get a call.

Theory for making sets pay off more, and more frequently: open raise more of the little pairs. Obviously, if you set them and lead again, the pot's going to be much bigger.

Your thoughts?

I'm a firm believer if I'm going to be the first person into a pot I raise it. If I feel like playing 68o in MP without anyone entering the pot I'll raise it. If I feel like playing 44 in first position I raise it.

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Originally Posted by LeFou

Theory for making sets pay off more, and more frequently: open raise more of the little pairs. Obviously, if you set them and lead again, the pot's going to be much bigger.

Your thoughts?

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The biggest problem I see with this is that you are scarring opps out of the flop by your PFR which reduces the number of people that can hit the flop with a 2nd best hand. There is nobody to pay you off if nobody has anything they are proud of. How often is this going to matter? Who knows. But I think it is often enough to invalidate the tactic, I could be wrong. I know Rippy raises his PP.

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Originally Posted by TalentedTom

Tight players don't get paid as much as lose players, its the fact of life. If mr.tight limps in UTG and then calls my raise when i have AA and calls pot sized bet on a rag flop i know hes not chasing a draw with something like 56s, so i will slow down, but against mr.loose i will continue to bet aggresivley because the possibility of him fishing around very realistic, but if he indeed has a set, well i just have to pay him off.

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This seems to be true...and for all your big hands. I'm king camper, but I played a little lagg over the weekend at a tight table and I could see the difference. Playing lagg seems to add to variance however.

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Originally Posted by EricE

The biggest problem I see with this is that you are scarring opps out of the flop by your PFR which reduces the number of people that can hit the flop with a 2nd best hand.

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This is an issue in a really loose post-flop game. For tighter games, the pots I take down unimproved and free cards I grab more than make up for this.

Fnord - you are raising all PPs? From which position? All?

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Originally Posted by r8ed

Fnord - you are raising all PPs? From which position? All?

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In a typical game, I don't open limp.

In a loose game with guys trying to stack off as fast as possible, I start limping.

if you cant open the pot for a raise then your hand isnt strong enough to play imo.
of course if everyone is loose im with fnord, start limping more, but try not to get a rocky image

Limping with PPs comments:
1. If somebody raises behind you - you know who "thinks" they have a good hand. If they call your raise, you never know.
2. If you are missing 7/8 of the time, then you are putting money into a losing cause unless you can still make things happen post flop.
3. If you feel PPs should be raised, why not KJ or QJ? I limp those.

One big advantage may be that since you are rasing more often, your bigger hands may get called/reraised and paid off. Plus it's harder for them to put you on a hand.

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Originally Posted by r8ed

1. If somebody raises behind you - you know who "thinks" they have a good hand. If they call your raise, you never know.

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After opening with a raise, I have MORE information on the guys comming in behind me. If they re-raise it's more likely to be a very strong hand. If I just limp then there are players in my game who will raise a pretty wide range, then c-bet. Even when they call, many players have tigher calling standards than limping standards.

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Originally Posted by r8ed

2. If you are missing 7/8 of the time, then you are putting money into a losing cause unless you can still make things happen post flop.

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Umm... with 100bb stacks, there still is 97 bb behind after I raise. Part of it is just building a pot big enough that someone is going to want to stack off to try to win it. Part of it is that I can find value after taking the lead pre-flop via c-bets, button stealing and free turn cards.

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Originally Posted by r8ed

3. If you feel PPs should be raised, why not KJ or QJ? I limp those.

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Both horrible hands to play in unraised pots (lots of money behind), without initative + position.

I thought about pre-flop balance in these games for a while. Then after discovering that raising small pockets is a good way to play them I just went with the same balancing approach I use in limit. Almost never limp unless you're exploiting a really soft table (in which case information leakage is a non-issue.)

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Originally Posted by r8ed

One big advantage may be that since you are rasing more often, your bigger hands may get called/reraised and paid off. Plus it's harder for them to put you on a hand.

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Yes, both very important when all the money goes in post-flop.

Do you have a standard raise? 5x's the BB when raising PP's, or what? Changing your raises depending on what you hold has to be a bad idea, so I'm figuring it's always the same...just thought I'd ask for clarification.

Raising PP's has helped my game, but only to an extent. I'm not going to raise 44 UTG, I just can't do it. If it gets called and you don't hit your set, then you're betting into overcards with people still left to act.

I will, though, raise 44 in MP or LP, c-bet it whether I hit my set or not, and then take down a pot most of the time. There's no way I could have done that limping the 44. I would have limped, no set no bet...Or limped, gotten raised, and then no set no bet. Taking the raising initiative, or buying the button, is huge in this game.

I"ve been contemplating this for a while...in fact every time I raise AA/KK and watch the whole table fold.

My standard raise is just double the pot preflop. Which if there are no limpers it equals 3x the BB.

If I don't have more than 1 or 2 limpers, I generally raise double the pot. If I have a lot of limpers, its usually the size of the pot.

(Edit - pot not flop lol)