two-part question - pot control and fighting off draws
Guys,
I periodically read about the concept of pot control. Frequently I find myself betting 1/2 pot to pot size bets. Usually betting less seems quite weak.
So... how do you "control" a pot? Say you have middle set, first to act with two behind you, on a board of JhTc6c. Much depends on your opponents, but this generally seems to be a case where I would think you have to bet to protect... or do you checkraise?
Launching potsize bets can quickly become a costly exercise if a scare card appears on the turn, not to mention the fact that it's money down the drain.
To make matters worse, it seems that often by the turn the stacks are insignificant relative to the pot and, being out of position, you're kinda screwed on the turn (don't have enough money for a potsize bet, again).
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Now someone else (demi or Fnord perhaps) mentioned controlling draws without having to rely exclusive on larger-to-pot size bets. So my question to you gentlemen: how do you do this? any technique tips?
Re: two-part question - pot control and fighting off draws
Quote:
Originally Posted by Blinky
So... how do you "control" a pot?
I was going to answer this. I even had a paragraph written. It's when it became apparent that a whole book could be written on the subject that I realized your question is way too broad. You control a pot with skill/experience. There are a thousand and one things going on as you sit through hands against diverse opponents. It becomes complex.
First you become good at deciding when you CAN control any given pot. Then you develop the ability to maximize value once you do.
Re: two-part question - pot control and fighting off draws
I only believe in pot control when you're not in the lead or believe you're not in the lead. You can try blocking bets, checking the turn, mini-raising for a free card/showdown. When you think you have the best hand, then you must have the guts to put money in while you're ahead. Not to be pat, but this is how you win more money.
Re: two-part question - pot control and fighting off draws
Quote:
Originally Posted by Blinky
To make matters worse, it seems that often by the turn the stacks are insignificant relative to the pot and, being out of position, you're kinda screwed on the turn (don't have enough money for a potsize bet, again).
None of the replies above consider this issue of stack sizes, which I think is rather important. If stacks are deep then by all means bet hard to drive out draws and reduce their implied odds.
But if your stack is less than the pot on the flop then even if you push a flush draw has odds to call, with the result that you just lose more chips then you would have if you had just checked and then folded if the flush hit on the turn.
Consider the following hypothetical situation: you have made a hand on the flop, and for some reason you know that your opponent is on a flush draw which we for simplicity assume has a 1/5 chance of hitting on each of the turn and river. Op can't beat you except by hitting his draw, and if he does you have no redraws. The pot is 20BB, and you and op both have 15BB left. How big should you aim for the pot to be after the flop betting round?
The answer is 30BB (i.e. you bet 5BB and op calls). Then if the flush does not hit on the turn you go AI for 10BB, and calling is precisely break-even for op. If the flush does hit you fold.
If the pot is smaller than 30BB then op will fold the turn unless his draw hits, so you win less than you would have if the pot was 30BB. If the pot is larger than 30BB then op will call your push on the turn anyway, so you'll just lose more if the draw hits on the turn.
Hence you should aim to ensure that the pot is 30BB after the flop betting round (reciprocally, if op is also aware of the premises then the correct play for him is to raise AI on the flop).
This model is of course, like all models, not very realistic. Before the flop betting round you have no way of knowing that op is on a flush draw (unless there is a mirror behind him or something). But I still think that there is something to be learned from it: if your opponent is on a draw, your stack is small in relation to the pot and if you are able to fold your hand if the draw hits on the turn then it is +EV to ensure that you can give your op bad pot odds on the turn rather than simply to push the flop and "get your money in while you're ahead".
E.g. suppose you have a strong hand on the flop on a draw heavy board with enough opponents that you can safely assume that some of them have draws. Then you could be better off making a small bet on the flop (which can get called not only by strong draws but also by people who are drawing near dead to you or the strong draws) and then dropping the proverbial hammer on a safe turn, instead of just pushing the flop.
I'm a fairly new player, and would be very interested to know if experienced players think that my reasoning here has some merit.
Re: two-part question - pot control and fighting off draws
Quote:
Originally Posted by krimson
Before the flop betting round you have no way of knowing that op is on a flush draw (unless there is a mirror behind him or something).
Haha - at my first ever live game we had to close the curtains as we realised that the French windows were acting like a perfect mirror :)
