What do you put opp on here?

I probably shouldn't have played the hand like this, but what do you put opp on?

Table Name Hand ID Game Stakes
$5 NL - 9 Seats 4665708-3 Holdem No Limit 20/40
Hand Start.
Seat 1 : Mr. Nice has $2,000
Seat 2 : the mark has $2,220
Seat 3 : bui-lui has $1,780
Seat 4 : MacAtaak has $1,960
Seat 5 : nickthefool has $2,000
Seat 6 : igordon has $2,020
Seat 7 : red2's has $2,000
Seat 8 : vic61 has $2,220
Seat 9 : 3 min hero has $1,800
bui-lui is the dealer.
MacAtaak posted small blind.
nickthefool posted big blind.
Game [3] started with 9 players.
Dealing Hole Cards.
Seat 5 : nickthefool has Tc Td
igordon called 40 and raised 160
red2's folded.
vic61 folded.
3 min hero folded.
Mr. Nice folded.
the mark folded.
bui-lui folded.
MacAtaak folded.
nickthefool called 160
Dealing flop.
Board cards [4s 9s 5d]
nickthefool bet 200
igordon called 200 and raised 200
Here i think he is either a decent player with a high pp, or he has something like AK and wants me to fold, or is just bluffing. I decide to call, looking to fold to major aggression.
nickthefool called 200
Dealing turn.
Board cards [4s 9s 5d Kd]
Trying to see where i stand...
nickthefool bet 200
igordon called 200
Dealing river.
Board cards [4s 9s 5d Kd 2h]
I think i would have been reraised on the turn if i was behind, and value bet the river...
nickthefool bet 160
igordon folded !!!
nickthefool wins 1,620 as the last player standing
Hand is over.

The only thing i can think is that he was on AQ or AJ, but even that just doesn't seem to make sense to me. Can anyone put him on a hand that this play makes sense with?

Your turn bet was a weak one. 200 into an 1120 pot is giving him 6.6:1 odds for a draw.

AQ is a def possibility.

I think it's possible he had AQ or AJ, but it's hard to say. I think your play here could have been better on a couple of streets, as well.

What you should have done: bet more on the flop (pot's about 350, I'd bet 250 at least), or better yet, check-raise him. He raised pre-flop; check to him and let him bet his overcards (he always will), then come back over the top. Say he bets 200 or 250 (a common bet based on the situation, his probable hand, and the size of the pot); you raise to at least 600; he almost has to let it go unless he's a complete fish. I probably go about 50/50 between betting out strong with this hand, and check-raising it.

The turn card is trouble and I don't know about that lead-out bet you made. Admittedly it's way too likely that the king helped him. Once he flat calls though, you can figure he probably doesn't have AK - again, unless he's a complete fish. You have to bet at least 200 (I call that the auto-pilot bet - betting the same amount on the turn as on the flop); that's as cheap as you can get away with for a blocking bet in this situation. If he raises substantially you're probably done with the hand. If he just calls you have to bet bigger on the river unless an ace comes down.

River bet is awful. It screams weakness and if he was a decent player he'd raise you with anything. Bet at least 400 here. Don't ever scale back your bets as the hand goes along, unless you have a monster and are play-acting that you're a weak, bad player to sucker someone in.

spade draw.

Yup, probably with an ace to explain the PF raise. ATs is my guess. But he definitely, definitely had a spade draw.

Quote:

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he almost has to let it go unless he's a complete fish

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He was/is (given rest of tourney) but had no read at that point.

I know i didn't play this well, was just wondering if anyone could put opp on a hand, as i was trying to but struggling. After the flop my play was horrible i admit, but i didn't really want to go all in on the king as my best bet for putting him on a hand at that point was AK, and i couldn't give him bad odds to call without at least committing myself to going all in.

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Originally Posted by biondino

Yup, probably with an ace to explain the PF raise. ATs is my guess. But he definitely, definitely had a spade draw.

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I don't think so. What I mean is, it's entirely plausible he had spades, but it's not a mortal lock. Lots of players would raise with high cards and then call a modest bet after they missed the flop. Nothing in his line here suggests that he's definitely drawing to the flush. In fact the average fish with an overcard flush draw would probably raise on that flop, not just call, after raising pre-flop - though I make the usual allowances for me being dead wrong, of course. To me I'd say it's about 50/50 he has two spades (any two), or AQ/AJ/AT.

He was on a flush draw with overcards, and didn't care about pot odds - he was going to see it to the river unless you made it extremely expensive. Probably AQspades.

Push the flop.

Your turn bet is a leak. It's a meaningless attempt at a blocking bet where it's only working against hands you beat and gives yourself an chance to make a bad fold

-'rilla

Dale - fish did raise the flop, then called the turn, then fold the river getting like 10/1 - nothing's a mortal lock, but ...

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Originally Posted by drmcboy

Dale - fish did raise the flop, then called the turn, then fold the river getting like 10/1 - nothing's a mortal lock, but ...

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I don't know how I missed that. Yeah, the raise on the flop is a damning piece of evidence for sure.

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Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla

Push the flop.

Your turn bet is a leak. It's a meaningless attempt at a blocking bet where it's only working against hands you beat and gives yourself an chance to make a bad fold

-'rilla

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Hey rilla - what do you do with that turn card? or what if it's a non-spade ace? I'm curious, I think this is a very difficult situation for most players, and I don't know the book on it. I feel like I'm winging it every time this happens.

K or A won't scare me. If anything, they'll probably scare my opponent.

I definitly don't lead on the turn becuase I think I can get more info from a check and see how he bets.

-'rilla