Flush Draw Implied Odds Problem
http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...ic.php?t=18345
The above post got me thinking about the implied odds of flush draws. So I pose a problem:
The pot is 10xBB.
My opponent and I each have 95xBB.
I know I have the best hand now.
I know my opponent has a draw that will hit on the turn 1-in-5 times.
I will always lose a showdown if my opponent's draw hits.
My opponent will fold the turn if he misses, but go all-in if he hits.
I will always call an all-in.
I am last to act and my opponent has checked to me after the flop.
How much must I bet to make sure I don't lose money from this situation?
(Or what bet size makes this EV = 0?)
I'll post a solution later if no one else gets it first.
Re: Flush Draw Implied Odds Problem
Quote:
Originally Posted by Zangief
My opponent will fold the turn if he misses, but go all-in if he hits.
I will always call an all-in.
Maybe I'm missing something, but if your op goes all in when he hits, why would you call? Seems like a pretty obvious fold here, if he pushes 95BB at a 10BB pot after the third flush card hits, and you had him on a draw.
What did I miss?
Re: Flush Draw Implied Odds Problem
Quote:
Originally Posted by Molinero
Quote:
Originally Posted by Zangief
My opponent will fold the turn if he misses, but go all-in if he hits.
I will always call an all-in.
Maybe I'm missing something, but if your op goes all in when he hits, why would you call? Seems like a pretty obvious fold here, if he pushes 95BB at a 10BB pot after the third flush card hits, and you had him on a draw.
What did I miss?
He can't fold hands because that would be to easy.
Re: Flush Draw Implied Odds Problem
Quote:
Originally Posted by Molinero
Quote:
Originally Posted by Zangief
My opponent will fold the turn if he misses, but go all-in if he hits.
I will always call an all-in.
Maybe I'm missing something, but if your op goes all in when he hits, why would you call? Seems like a pretty obvious fold here, if he pushes 95BB at a 10BB pot after the third flush card hits, and you had him on a draw.
What did I miss?
This is not supposed to represent a real-world situation; it is supposed to be a theoretical problem designed to answer these questions:
1. If I am committed to my hand for my entire stack, how much must I raise to make sure drawing to a flush is an error for my opponent?
2. Stated from the opposite side: If I believe an opponent is committed to his entire stack, how much can I call with a flush draw that will still be profitable?
I am not suggesting that anyone should play like this. :D But I think this information could be useful in situations similar to those stated in the original problem.
Re: Flush Draw Implied Odds Problem
Quote:
Originally Posted by Zangief
Quote:
Originally Posted by Molinero
Quote:
Originally Posted by Zangief
My opponent will fold the turn if he misses, but go all-in if he hits.
I will always call an all-in.
Maybe I'm missing something, but if your op goes all in when he hits, why would you call? Seems like a pretty obvious fold here, if he pushes 95BB at a 10BB pot after the third flush card hits, and you had him on a draw.
What did I miss?
This is not supposed to represent a real-world situation; it is supposed to be a theoretical problem designed to answer these questions:
1. If I am committed to my hand for my entire stack, how much must I raise to make sure drawing to a flush is an error for my opponent?
2. Stated from the opposite side: If I believe an opponent is committed to his entire stack, how much can I call with a flush draw that will still be profitable?
I am not suggesting that anyone should play like this. :D But I think this information could be useful in situations similar to those stated in the original problem.
Fair enough: Raise everything. That oughta do it.
:)
