Parlays!!!!

Blade, correct me if I'm wrong, but for the sake of the forum I want to advise against the imfamous parlay. Parlay's are a horrible bet in sports. While the payoff is great if you ever hit one, odds of hitting them are slim.

The handicappers in Vegas are the best. Every year they have a contest over the course of the football season to see who has the best percentage. Quite often the winner of this event has a winning percentage no greater than 69%-73%. If these guys do this for a living and this is their win %, how in the world can we amateurs expect to pick 5 out of five, or even 3 out of 3 on a consistent basis.

As a rule to a new sports bettor, save your money for single bets and don't waste them on a PARLAY.

Blade, I look forward to hearing your opinion on this topic as it seems you are the resident Guru!!

I've heard that bets where you pick a team to win the superbowl at the start of the season are big sucker bets. I'd like to see the math on these, I have a feeling it is a bad scene(like playing keno)

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Originally Posted by worldbeater03

Blade, correct me if I'm wrong, but for the sake of the forum I want to advise against the imfamous parlay. Parlay's are a horrible bet in sports. While the payoff is great if you ever hit one, odds of hitting them are slim.

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I think you're right but I'd like to see the math on that too. I think that if you can find a $105 to win $100 bet on a single game then it would be tough to find a parlay that has so little juice.

Numbers on parlays:

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Originally Posted by blade

Football Point Spread Parlay Odds
2 Picks 2.5/1
3 Picks 6/1
4 Picks 10/1
5 Picks 20/1
6 Picks 40/1
7 Picks 80/1
8 Picks 100/1
9 Picks 200/1
10 Picks 350/1

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You have to get all these games right to win. So, an alternate way to do this would be to make one bet, if you win, place your winnings on another bet, if you win that, place it all on another bet, etc, etc.

Here's what your payout would be if you did that and got the corresponding amount of games right consecutively:

(Assuming you bet 55 to win 50)

2 games: 3.6-1
3 games: 6.9-1
4 games: 13-1
5 games: 25-1
6 games: 48-1
7 games: 92-1
8 games: 177-1
9 games: 338-1
10 games: 645-1

The only difference is that the games couldn't be going on at the same time since you would have to take your winnings from each to place on the next one. This is of course part the appeal of parlays, that you can watch them all at the same time and make a big score at once. But, this just kind of shows how parlays are kinda stinky, even though from what I've seen alot of people make these bets, even savvy bettors.

EDIT: I ran it with less juice, since Eric mentioned it. The following numbers are based on bets where you bet $105 to win $100.

2 games: 3.8-1
3 games: 7.4-1
4 games: 14.5-1
5 games: 28-1
6 games: 55-1
7 games: 107-1
8 games: 209-1
9 games: 408-1
10 games: 795-1

So it isn't even close. I guess folks do parlays because they are too impatient to wait for one game to end in order to take the winnings and roll it into the next bet.

Parlays are usually being filled out recreationally, or by that guy who thinks "If I can just hit this 15 game parlay, I'll be back on top!". Most serious sports bettors will rarely take more than 2-3 games a day, and that's not only good bankroll management, but usually there aren't that many lines that standout.

I equate those lost sole jumping on parlays to play catchup Sunday afternoon after a day of losing Saturday to a card player on tilt. You can just go mad and lose it all by making bad decision after bad decision because of your emotions getting the best of you.

WorldBeater03:

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Blade, correct me if I'm wrong, but for the sake of the forum I want to advise against the imfamous parlay. Parlay's are a horrible bet in sports. While the payoff is great if you ever hit one, odds of hitting them are slim.

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Excellent point to bring up and you are absolutely correct. Parlays are typically known as the "sucker's bet" but this type of bet gets a lot of play. Personally, when I'm feeling really lucky I'll throw down the occasional 3 pick parlay but never more than 3. I don't like 2 pick parlays because the payouts are too weak and you are much better off splitting this bet into 2 different straights. As you also mentioned, the parlay is usually a recreational play(low money/lots of play) and it should stay that way to keep fun.

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Originally Posted by Eric

I've heard that bets where you pick a team to win the superbowl at the start of the season are big sucker bets. I'd like to see the math on these, I have a feeling it is a bad scene(like playing keno)

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Season long wagers such as this and season wins totalls are normally a bad bet. The only time they are good is when they first are posted. This is normally before any casual sports fan or bettor gets around to looking at them. By then all the sharp money has taken the few good wagers out there and scewed the lines enough where it isnt worth it anymore. A seasons win bet. for example, might start out at 9 but buy the time the average public gets around to looking at it, usually a week or two before the start of the season, it may be up to -150 or even have moved to -9.5 wich is a huge swing but the general public fails to pick up on this. Stay away from these unless you get in really early at an awesome price.

I think I figured out why you'd use parlays.

It would be if you think that two things would happen IN THE SAME GAME. For instance, I parlayed the over for the first quarter (10) in the Indy vs. St. Louis game while simultaneously backing Indy for the game.

I was just going to bet on the first quarter over, but I thought that it would be a forgone conclusion that Indy would win, so I tried increasing the payout a little. I didn't want to just take the winnings right after the first quarter and stick them back on the Colts because for all I knew before the game, the Colts would be ahead and the odds would have changed; that's why you use a parlay.

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Originally Posted by ensign_lee

I think I figured out why you'd use parlays.

It would be if you think that two things would happen IN THE SAME GAME. For instance, I parlayed the over for the first quarter (10) in the Indy vs. St. Louis game while simultaneously backing Indy for the game.

I was just going to bet on the first quarter over, but I thought that it would be a forgone conclusion that Indy would win, so I tried increasing the payout a little. I didn't want to just take the winnings right after the first quarter and stick them back on the Colts because for all I knew before the game, the Colts would be ahead and the odds would have changed; that's why you use a parlay.

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only in very few situations. Like X team will win ONLY if it's over. And if it goes over they are lock to win. Because if it doesn't go over they probably don't win, so it's almost like risking half to win extra. I've seen this play, but it is very rare where it's a smart bet. I might make this play once all season.

First off, anyone betting parlays thinking that "if I can just hit this I can get back to even... or I'll be sitting pretty." is certainly not smart. Parlays are, for the most part, a sucker bet.

That being said, it is a fun thing to do periodically if you feel like gambling. Like I posted in another thread, I pretty much met the quota that I set for myself betting college ball on Saturday. However, I felt like having a little action on the NFL so I bet a 5-team parlay and played all moneylines. Fortunately, I hit it. Being all moneylines the payout wasn't as much as normal but I essentially picked 5 teams to win straight up. Made the NFL much more enjoyable having a little action on the games.

I probably play 3-4 parlays a season for the hell of it. But, like I said, anyone playing parlays for anything other than a purely recreational bet is going to lose alot of money.

Just a little fun quiz. what is the best time to play parlays with online sports books. There are three specific weekends every year. Any guesses?

(there is obviously statistically no weekend that is better then the other, but as a means of having fun 3 stand out)