What would you do in this situation

Sitting in MP with 78s one limper early I limp both blinds enter, pot is 4BB.

Flop 2h JTs

Early limper (TAG) puts in a pot sized raise...... your call

Other information.

Level is 2/2 NL, both blinds are average players. If a third spade hits the TAG will not pay off unless he's actually sitting on higher spades which will be me paying off. My read is good enough to say he is most likely on JT, AJ, AT, KQs, AQs, with a lower probability of JJ, TT, 89 or even less probability that he is bluffing a lower pp.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Ayce

Sitting in MP with 78s one limper early I limp both blinds enter, pot is 4BB.

Flop 2h JTs

Early limper (TAG) puts in a pot sized raise...... your call

Other information.

Level is 2/2 NL, both blinds are average players. If a third spade hits the TAG will not pay off unless he's actually sitting on higher spades which will be me paying off. My read is good enough to say he is most likely on JT, AJ, AT, KQs, AQs, with a lower probability of JJ, TT, 89 or even less probability that he is bluffing a lower pp.

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or he may have 22.. for any of those possibilities you have to improve you hand unless you're prepared to bluff him. If he bets the turn and you havent improved you cant call. You have bad odds so you're relying on both blinds to also call.

I fold from here, like you say if you hit your not getting paid so you cant claim implied odds. There will be a better situation later on.

Well, you can't call drawing to a non spade 9 here, so I guess the question is raise or fold? I can't think a TAG is folding any of the hands you're giving him to a raise here except the A10 and maybe AJ. So you're probably way behind and you probably can't fold him out... fold.

I fold 78s pre-flop. It's a leak from MP. Bet them from the button but otherwise fold.

But.. if I somehow find myself in this situation...

I assume he has a made hand with his pot-sized bet. I know that I have 13 outs which is about a 42% shot with two cards to come. If I call here I will probably face another pot sized bet on the river so your total bet will likely bet $10-$12. This means you need to extract about $30 from the pot; most likely on the river bet. There is a chance you can see the cards cheaper if you raise it. A raise to $8 may cause him to check to you on the turn, giving you a total bet of $8. In this case you need to extract only about $20 from the pot to make this profitable.

If he's a real TAG, like you said, I would raise him. I'm assuming you both have a big enough stack to cover the bets I'm talking about.

Yeah i folded, which is the right thing to do one of the blinds called. Of course the next card was the 9S. The betting stopped dead on the turn with a moderate raise on the river by the initial raiser who won it with TTT over AJ from the blind.

This is one of those "see one more card" scenerios. It usually tells you all you need to know. I can bear rivering a made hand, but not turning it when I folded with so many outs.

Hey DimitriT, you wanna slow down with the quantum physics? I only have so many brain cells left. I'm trying to save em for sit coms. Just kidding bro. Keep up the good work.

I wish I cared to bother with all that math. I aced advanced math courses in school, but still don't give a shit about any of it when it comes to poker. I guess I'm somewhat Negreanu in that regard, Maybe I'll change someday.

A friend of mine reads calculus when he's taking a dump. I won't even touch his calculus books. It's not because he takes a dump with them either. He loves that stuff. He also loves smoking big fatties. I never understood how calculus and heavy drug use could co-exist.

The math is very easy..

take # of outs and multiply by 4, that gives you your app. % of making the draw with 2 cards to come.

I always keep a table of outs to odds next to me when I sit to play on line.
I have pretty much memorized it by now by I still look at it now and then.

I'm thinking of writing a little desktop program which will take the pot, the cards to come and the outs and tell you the maximum bet to make it profitable.

But I agree with you, math could be a distraction. Reading players is the real skill.

Yeah, this is a fold with out a thought, if you were drawing to the the nuts it would depend on how deep the stacks were (include these as the decision can change, if they are a SS you stand to gain very little from hitting, if they are a big stack it might be worth chasing (unless it's an SNG/MTT where it would depend on how much of your stack that would cost)).

It looks like he hit top pair and wanted to take it right there or bought it due to the weakness pf.