good read? or got lucky

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06-19-2005, 11:39 AM
BIGandRICH

good read? or got lucky

hey guys, I'm hoping for an answer from some of the expeirienced players out there, but anyones opinion is valued

NL .05/.1, full ring game
I'm dealt Kd 9d on the button
:kd: :9d:
folds to me, I limp in. SB limps, BB checks
flop:
:9h: :4d: :3d:

SB checks, BB checks
i bet the pot (30c)
SB fold, BB calls

Turn:
:ah:
BB pushes All in

now heres my question, did I read this correctly?

ok, so if he had A4, A3, A9.. he's strong with 2 pair, theres 2 possible flush draws on the board, so he'd be betting, roughly pot size bet. he'd be pretty confident he's holding the best hand so he's happy for me to be chasing. so 2 pair wouldnt push here. that rules that out.

Ax.. no preflop raise, so not AK, AQ, and probably not AJ, A10, any other possibilities, probably not, i dont think this guys a complete idiot to stay in hoping to hit that magical A. and even if he did, after i've shown strength is he going to want to drive me out and win less money from me.
so I'm thinking he hasnt got an ace.

25 has just hit a straight, but that still wants those chasers to pay him off, theres no all in from him. not in a 90c pot (all in for $8). so no straight.

99, 33, 44. this guy reraised sizable raises with 55 and 22. and was prepared to go all in on them preflop. so i'm not putting him on any pp, and even if he had made a change and limped one, if he's caught a set he's the same as 2 pair/straight.. he still wants a caller, he wants to bet and be raised and get all in, not push right there.

so after all this thought i decide that about the only thing that would push there is a stone cold bluff, or a flush draw/straight draw, ie. semi bluff.

so i call, he has :qh: :td: .. no straight/flush draw, stone cold bluff.. 5 outs to beat me.

so does my thinking make sense or did i get lucky that this time he was bluffing?

extra note: he rivered a 10 :doh: damn him
06-19-2005, 11:47 AM
tdmlb24

That would be a tough spot but I would probably fold here, but it all depends on the reads you are getting and how much the other person has left.

I would also be afraid of a slowplay here after the check on the button and call on the flop. Trips maybe and hes hoping you caught your ace.
06-19-2005, 11:52 AM
a500lbgorilla

I wouldnt make it a weapon in your arsenal to call AIs with second pair + flush draw.

-'rilla
06-19-2005, 11:58 AM

He's got the ace almost all of the time here, so you need to improve to beat him.

Let's consider it:

You have 13 outs to improve (9 diamonds, 2 kings and 2 nines).

There are 26 cards left in the deck (20 hole cards, 4 community cards and 2 burnt cards are in play).

That's 13/26 = 50%.

Want to risk all your chips on a 50/50?
06-19-2005, 12:02 PM
tdmlb24

And to your actual question it might be a lucky or great call here but I don't think you should make that a habit.
06-19-2005, 12:15 PM
BIGandRICH

Quote:

Originally Posted by tdmlb24

I would also be afraid of a slowplay here after the check on the button and call on the flop. Trips maybe and hes hoping you caught your ace.

yeh thats possible, but i wouldnt push an $8 stack into $0.90, expecting someone with just an ace to call. if your pushing then arent you saying you can beat just the ace?? so if you can beat it you want it to call?

Quote:

Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla

I wouldnt make it a weapon in your arsenal to call AIs with second pair + flush draw.

is that out of him possibly having a strong hand so you wouldnt call without something solid?
if there'd been more people in.. say he pushes, then its me, with 2 people after me still to act then i would fold it. But it was heads up and i was pretty confident he was bluffing, you think thats still not worth it?

if he has a set that isnt the 9.. then that leaves me 11 outs.. not great with only one card to come.. but taking into account i'm around 75% sure he's on nothing or a draw.

Do you think its still not worth it and i should fold and wait for something i can be more sure of?
06-19-2005, 12:24 PM
BIGandRICH

Quote:

Originally Posted by dwarfman

He's got the ace almost all of the time here, so you need to improve to beat him.

what's your reasoning behind him having the ace? its just at the moment i cant see why an ace would push there.. it doesnt make sense to me.. so is it a fishy action or should an ace infact push then?
06-19-2005, 12:26 PM
a500lbgorilla

Quote:

Originally Posted by dwarfman

He's got the ace almost all of the time here, so you need to improve to beat him.

Let's consider it:

You have 13 outs to improve (9 diamonds, 2 kings and 2 nines).

There are 26 cards left in the deck (20 hole cards, 4 community cards and 2 burnt cards are in play).

That's 13/26 = 50%.

Want to risk all your chips on a 50/50?

This isnt how you take odds. He's far from 50/50 to win this pot. Since you cant make any assumptions about the suit or value of any cards folded, you play as if there are only 2 hole cards dealt and 5 on the community.

-'rilla
06-19-2005, 12:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BIGandRICH

Quote:

Originally Posted by dwarfman

He's got the ace almost all of the time here, so you need to improve to beat him.

what's your reasoning behind him having the ace? its just at the moment i cant see why an ace would push there.. it doesnt make sense to me.. so is it a fishy action or should an ace infact push then?

An ace would bet out at least pot sized (a push is a little eccentric, but meh) to protect his hand from the straight and flush draws, he would want to make it hard for you to draw out on him, and that play looked exactly like what one would od if he did have the ace. Only thing was the guy was retarded and had QTo.
06-19-2005, 09:13 PM
BIGandRICH

Quote:

Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla

This isnt how you take odds. He's far from 50/50 to win this pot. Since you cant make any assumptions about the suit or value of any cards folded, you play as if there are only 2 hole cards dealt and 5 on the community.

-'rilla

yeh i thought so, its 13/46 isnt it? or a bit better than 25%
06-19-2005, 10:06 PM
ensign_lee

On the flop, you are a favorite against any overpair. I WOULD make it a habit to push all in on this flop with some pair and a flush draw. You have slightly better than 50 some odd percent to win, and there's already money in the pot. Unless you think that your outs that aren't flushes are not good, then you should always push, even if you think the other guy has KK, 'cause at this moment in time, you have him beat.