Called down and then bet into on the river

***** Hand History for Game 2155588995 *****
$100 NL Hold'em - Saturday, June 04, 20:24:31 EDT 2005
Table Table 36743 (6 max) (Real Money)
Seat 4 is the button
Total number of players : 6
Seat 1: joony1984 ( $26.95 )
Seat 2: GothaNuts ( $114.85 )
Seat 4: SmackinYaUp ( $114.05 )
Seat 3: cel2much ( $102.75 )
Seat 6: bjplayaa ( $100.9 )
Seat 5: Grovenator ( $99.5 )
Grovenator posts small blind [$0.5].
bjplayaa posts big blind [$1].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to SmackinYaUp [ Qs Qc ]
joony1984 folds.
GothaNuts calls [$1].
cel2much folds.
SmackinYaUp raises [$4].
Grovenator folds.
bjplayaa folds.
GothaNuts calls [$3].
** Dealing Flop ** [ 8d, 2s, 3d ]
GothaNuts checks.
SmackinYaUp bets [$7].
GothaNuts calls [$7].
** Dealing Turn ** [ Ks ]
GothaNuts checks.
SmackinYaUp bets [$15].
GothaNuts calls [$15].
** Dealing River ** [ 7c ]
GothaNuts bets [$25].
SmackinYaUp: ?

I didn't have much of a read on the guy except that he seemed pretty solid. Is he sitting with a set or busted flush?

Is there anything else I could be missing?

It seems like he has a set and doesn't want to miss a bet on the river. Most people who try to steal with missed flush draws do so after you have shown weakness, like checking the river. This guy lead out with a bet, so that kind of makes me think he's got a made hand. Limited information here, though, so I don't think a call would be terrible. What stinks is that he could have hit a K if he had Kx of diamonds and still have you beat, but I think he would have raised the turn with that hand.

An advantage of calling here is that you get information about how he plays regardless of the outcome. I'm not sure if that's worth $25 though.

Scary hand, especially if this guy is solid.

Consider this, he limped preflop from an early position, and called a raise, that screams some sort of a low PP. The flop was very raggy, as was the turn, and he simply called bets on both of these streets, would he smooth call with an unimproved low PP if he was solid? Then on the river it becomes quite clear that he has a set here.

88, 33 or 22 for me.

There is a pretty standard limit play in which you bet the river out of position when you have a hand you think might be ahead and you want to show it down. Being bet into on the river after being checked to the whole way is scary for most players, and they will usually just call when ahead (whereas they would have bet if you checked), so you lose the same when you are behind. OTOH, hands you beat will often check behind, so you make less when you are ahead if you check the river. For example, a hand like 99 might make this play in a limit game.

I'm not sure that this concept applies in NL because of the fear of a big river raise, but it might be a similar scenario.

I'd be afraid of a set here too, but I'd call and pay it off.

I say fold it. Consider the hands that he may have that you can beat: a busted flush draw. Thats it. Now lets consider the hands that will have you beat: Set (88 seems likely in this situation), I dont put him on a strong K like AK but certainly may have a week one like KJ or KT and just looking to show it down.

He bet about the half the pot .. and i would say the ratio of hands that he may have that you can beat to those you cant is around 1:3 or 1:4

fold and take his money later

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Grand_MasterB

I say fold it. Consider the hands that he may have that you can beat: a busted flush draw. Thats it. Now lets consider the hands that will have you beat: Set (88 seems likely in this situation), I dont put him on a strong K like AK but certainly may have a week one like KJ or KT and just looking to show it down.

He bet about the half the pot .. and i would say the ratio of hands that he may have that you can beat to those you cant is around 1:3 or 1:4

fold and take his money later

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if he was bluffing he would drop the hammer to get you to fold, this is a value bet.. depending how much longer im going to play with this player, i would call to get the info on what type of player he really is and nail him to the wall later (that is if you play all night at a table like i do)

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Element187

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Grand_MasterB

I say fold it. Consider the hands that he may have that you can beat: a busted flush draw. Thats it. Now lets consider the hands that will have you beat: Set (88 seems likely in this situation), I dont put him on a strong K like AK but certainly may have a week one like KJ or KT and just looking to show it down.

He bet about the half the pot .. and i would say the ratio of hands that he may have that you can beat to those you cant is around 1:3 or 1:4

fold and take his money later

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if he was bluffing he would drop the hammer to get you to fold, this is a value bet.. depending how much longer im going to play with this player, i would call to get the info on what type of player he really is and nail him to the wall later (that is if you play all night at a table like i do)

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even if you do play all night at a table what are the odds that he will? most players online sessions are very short