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A Weird One 200NL

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  1. #1

    Default A Weird One 200NL

    Villain is a 2ptbb 14/11/5 winner. Raise EP 10% and fold to 3b from EP 0% (3 hands). Donked 1/38 times and donked 0/9 on the turn. C/R as the pfr is 13%. I'm a pretty standard 17/13 and tighter than most in squeezing EP raises with donks in the middle.

    PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB (9 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

    saw flop

    UTG+1 ($99.35)
    MP1 ($204.35)
    Hero (MP2) ($288.35)
    MP3 ($74)
    CO ($214.35)
    Button ($96.80)
    SB ($200)
    BB ($208.25)
    UTG ($200)

    Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K, K
    UTG bets $4, UTG+1 calls $4, 1 fold, Hero raises to $16, 5 folds, UTG calls $12, 1 fold

    Flop: ($39) 10, 4, 3 (2 players)
    UTG bets $19, Hero calls $19

    Turn: ($77) 2 (2 players)
    UTG bets $50, Hero calls $50

    River: ($177) 3 (2 players)
    UTG bets $115 (All-In), Hero
  2. #2
    BankItDrew's Avatar
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    Villain is just never bluffing. I'm trying to think of any hands he might do this with for value that you beat or as a bluff and i can think of zero.
  3. #3
    i wouldnt give a nitty bumhunter credit for ever not just having the nuts here
  4. #4
    Do you guys call the 8d?
  5. #5
    I honestly think a turn raise for value isn't bad.
    I fold AA preflop.
  6. #6
    bikes's Avatar
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    no. just no justin.

    ?wut
  7. #7
    supa's Avatar
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    Sorry if I'm out of my element here but doesn't it make the most sense to raise the flop? He should never have a set with his bet sizing and by not raising we're giving him great odds to continue with his draws.
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  8. #8
    bikes's Avatar
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    what draws?? he flatted a mp 3b from utg he has 0 draws in his range. if there is a draw it's 1 combo and its AQdd and it's probable he doesnt even have that in his range

    ?wut
  9. #9
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    fold
  10. #10
    oskar's Avatar
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    No way in hell he has an Ad other than AA.
    TT, 44, 33 most likely.
    10% utg open and 0/3 fold to 3b from EP. Super low donk %.
    Story checks out imo.

    Dean, what range do you 3b him with here? Unrelated to thread rly, just curious.
    - Ignoring that 10% ep pfr is most likely a sample error cos of 14/11 and everything.
    Last edited by oskar; 08-25-2011 at 02:48 AM.
    The strengh of a hero is defined by the weakness of his villains.
  11. #11
    AK, sometimes JJ and AQ
  12. #12
    AA,QQ,JJ,TT,AK,AQ occasionaly, I think as played we beat enough of his range to call here imo. Correct me if I'm wrong, and raising turn is not a bad play either.
  13. #13
    rpm's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by acg123 View Post
    and raising turn is not a bad play either.
    because...
  14. #14
    hm, anyone think folding the turn is better than raising?
    Playing big pots at small stakes.
  15. #15
    You can heavily discount if not eliminate AdKx from his range. Which means on the turn you are likely facing a range of TT+,44-33,AdQd

    I would also say AQdd should be discounted

    Text results appended to pokerstove.txt


    1,276 games 0.005 secs 255,200 games/sec

    Board: Td 4d 3c 2d
    Dead:

    equity win tie pots won pots tied
    Hand 0: 52.155% 50.78% 01.37% 648 17.50 { KdKs }
    Hand 1: 47.845% 46.47% 01.37% 593 17.50 { TT+, 44-33, AdQd }

    We're flipping vs this range, calling turn is better than raising since he likely folds out QQ-JJ to a raise and we're owned by the rest of his range.

    The real question is, is calling turn better than folding, since we may be able to discount some JJ/QQ combos.

    River he's never bluffing and rarely, if ever, v-betting worse, so fold
    Last edited by caddie444; 09-22-2011 at 02:52 AM.


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  16. #16
    rpm's Avatar
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    with what kind of rationale would villain lead flop + turn vs what is a pretty tight 3bet range with QQ or JJ? his sizing on the turn doesn't seem like something he'd do with JJ. and probably not QQ imo.
  17. #17
    This line seems scary from a guy who doesn't donk much.
    Playing big pots at small stakes.
  18. #18
    Quote Originally Posted by rpm View Post
    because...
    i couldnt tell you. lol originally i thought we could get value from worse but i didnt read his stats and i think i was wrong for saying that, i think calling is best option, and probably folding river is best as were beat like 90% of the time the only hand we beat is a PP with a diamond, if the river diamond didnt pair board i think we have to call as we beat a larger part of his range now but when the 3d comes i think its a fold.i also think we can discount AA as i think he would of 4b pre.

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