A Weird One 200NL

Villain is a 2ptbb 14/11/5 winner. Raise EP 10% and fold to 3b from EP 0% (3 hands). Donked 1/38 times and donked 0/9 on the turn. C/R as the pfr is 13%. I'm a pretty standard 17/13 and tighter than most in squeezing EP raises with donks in the middle.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB (9 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

UTG+1 ($99.35)
MP1 ($204.35)
Hero (MP2) ($288.35)
MP3 ($74)
CO ($214.35)
Button ($96.80)
SB ($200)
BB ($208.25)
UTG ($200)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K, K
UTG bets $4, UTG+1 calls $4, 1 fold, Hero raises to $16, 5 folds, UTG calls $12, 1 fold

Flop: ($39) 10, 4, 3 (2 players)
UTG bets $19, Hero calls $19

Turn: ($77) 2 (2 players)
UTG bets $50, Hero calls $50

River: ($177) 3 (2 players)
UTG bets $115 (All-In), Hero

Villain is just never bluffing. I'm trying to think of any hands he might do this with for value that you beat or as a bluff and i can think of zero.

i wouldnt give a nitty bumhunter credit for ever not just having the nuts here

Do you guys call the 8d?

I honestly think a turn raise for value isn't bad.

no. just no justin.

Sorry if I'm out of my element here but doesn't it make the most sense to raise the flop? He should never have a set with his bet sizing and by not raising we're giving him great odds to continue with his draws.

what draws?? he flatted a mp 3b from utg he has 0 draws in his range. if there is a draw it's 1 combo and its AQdd and it's probable he doesnt even have that in his range

fold

No way in hell he has an Ad other than AA.
TT, 44, 33 most likely.
10% utg open and 0/3 fold to 3b from EP. Super low donk %.
Story checks out imo.

Dean, what range do you 3b him with here? Unrelated to thread rly, just curious.
- Ignoring that 10% ep pfr is most likely a sample error cos of 14/11 and everything.

AK, sometimes JJ and AQ

AA,QQ,JJ,TT,AK,AQ occasionaly, I think as played we beat enough of his range to call here imo. Correct me if I'm wrong, and raising turn is not a bad play either.

Originally Posted by acg123

and raising turn is not a bad play either.

because...

hm, anyone think folding the turn is better than raising?

You can heavily discount if not eliminate AdKx from his range. Which means on the turn you are likely facing a range of TT+,44-33,AdQd

I would also say AQdd should be discounted

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt


1,276 games 0.005 secs 255,200 games/sec

Board: Td 4d 3c 2d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 52.155% 50.78% 01.37% 648 17.50 { KdKs }
Hand 1: 47.845% 46.47% 01.37% 593 17.50 { TT+, 44-33, AdQd }

We're flipping vs this range, calling turn is better than raising since he likely folds out QQ-JJ to a raise and we're owned by the rest of his range.

The real question is, is calling turn better than folding, since we may be able to discount some JJ/QQ combos.

River he's never bluffing and rarely, if ever, v-betting worse, so fold

with what kind of rationale would villain lead flop + turn vs what is a pretty tight 3bet range with QQ or JJ? his sizing on the turn doesn't seem like something he'd do with JJ. and probably not QQ imo.

This line seems scary from a guy who doesn't donk much.

Originally Posted by rpm

because...

i couldnt tell you. lol originally i thought we could get value from worse but i didnt read his stats and i think i was wrong for saying that, i think calling is best option, and probably folding river is best as were beat like 90% of the time the only hand we beat is a PP with a diamond, if the river diamond didnt pair board i think we have to call as we beat a larger part of his range now but when the 3d comes i think its a fold.i also think we can discount AA as i think he would of 4b pre.