TT vs Reg 200nl

He's got 3bet % of 6% in the SB so I'm assuming he'd reraise me with AQ+ and QQ+ preflop. So his calling range preflop includes: any pair, suited broadways. I need some help figuring out how often this guy will have the missed flush draw here over valuebetting 88 and JJ for me to make this call, given I'm getting 2.5-1.

His stats are: 17/10 over 2k hands at folds to cbet 65%.
FWIW, UTG was a monkey (and I was stacking off vs).

No-Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB (7 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

BB ($120)
UTG ($123)
MP1 ($78)
MP2 ($110.35)
CO ($37)
Hero (Button) ($200)
CK the 1 (SB) ($198)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 10, 10
UTG calls $2, 3 folds, Hero raises $8, CK the 1 calls $7, 1 fold, UTG calls $6

Flop: ($26) 4, 4, 8 (3 players)
CK the 1 checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $18, CK the 1 calls $18, 1 fold

Turn: ($62) 2 (2 players)
CK the 1 checks, Hero checks

River: ($62) 4 (2 players)
CK the 1 bets $40, Hero...

You dont think his range includes smaller pocket pairs than yours betting for value?

I don't feel you don't look incredibly strong here and maybe he is hoping you'll look him Ax?

Easy call.Imo

Originally Posted by STHollywood

You dont think his range includes smaller pocket pairs than yours betting for value?

I don't feel you don't look incredibly strong here and maybe he is hoping you'll look him Ax?

If he has 77 and thinks I have AK, is he going to bet 2/3 pot on the river and expect me to call? I could see 1/3-1/2 pot but if he were to put $40 in the pot then I expect him to check/call it rather than bet it.

Originally Posted by grindinginnj

Easy call.Imo

Nice post.

after turn goes ch/ch his river bet is a bluff/smaller pp often enough imo. Folding is weak and there's prob not much value in raising. I call.

This is a snap call. Raising is out of the question because there is no value in it, unless villain is an uber donk and you have a sick read that he'll call with weaker. Awesome check on the turn, this is a great hand for two streets of value.

If he's decent I doubt he gets to the river with the range he'd need to to make this a call.

You're cbetting into 3 players so I just feel like he's probably not peeling the flop awfully light.

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

If he's decent I doubt he gets to the river with the range he'd need to to make this a call.

You're cbetting into 3 players so I just feel like he's probably not peeling the flop awfully light.

Yeah you're right. I think he has 88 on second thought..

Guessing that's sarcasm, just feel like we're hoping to get shown 99 when I feel like he'll have JJ/88 a lot more.

Also, if UTG is bad perhaps he flats stronger hands PF than he'd normally 3bet to keep him in the pot.

Originally Posted by BankItDrew

I think he has 88 on second thought..

not likely imo. then again, i've made a decent amount of marginal river calls!

Meh... I sum up a loss here to a cooler and sum up wins to bad plays. Both are fine.

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

.... I feel like he'll have JJ/88 a lot more.

villain's a nit and prob 3betting JJ from the SB. I'd rule it out. As for 88 basic card distribution makes it fairly unlikely that he has a pp at all and when he does I think it's almost always certainly smaller than ours (excluding 88 of course 'cause the chances of flopping a boat are small enough that I'm not worried about it). In addition I think it's a decent spot for Villain to bluff. A call also buys some valuable info..

I'd just feel dirty folding here.

Originally Posted by al yell

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

.... I feel like he'll have JJ/88 a lot more.

villain's a nit and prob 3betting JJ from the SB. I'd rule it out. As for 88 basic card distribution makes it fairly unlikely that he has a pp at all and when he does I think it's almost always certainly smaller than ours (excluding 88 of course 'cause the chances of flopping a boat are small enough that I'm not worried about it). In addition I think it's a decent spot for Villain to bluff. A call also buys some valuable info.

I disagree with every single sentence in this post.

Originally Posted by mcatdog

Originally Posted by al yell

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

.... I feel like he'll have JJ/88 a lot more.

villain's a nit and prob 3betting JJ from the SB. I'd rule it out. As for 88 basic card distribution makes it fairly unlikely that he has a pp at all and when he does I think it's almost always certainly smaller than ours (excluding 88 of course 'cause the chances of flopping a boat are small enough that I'm not worried about it). In addition I think it's a decent spot for Villain to bluff. A call also buys some valuable info.

I disagree with every single sentence in this post.

lol, fair enough. kinda playing devil's advocate. I'm looking for every possible justification for a call here.

but mcat, would you fold this?

Originally Posted by nutsinho

but mcat, would you fold this?

It's close but no. I don't think villain is bluffing very often at all but I think he's likely to bet 99 for value, maybe even 77. Stars 1/2 is weird, most of the regs go for retardedly thin value on the river all the time but they don't bluff anywhere near enough to compensate, thus making their thin value bets terrible vs. anyone with a clue. We're getting the right odds vs. a range of QQ-88,44 so I'd call expecting to lose most of the time.

Originally Posted by mcatdog

It's close but no. I don't think villain is bluffing very often at all but I think he's likely to bet 99 for value, maybe even 77. Stars 1/2 is weird, most of the regs go for retardedly thin value on the river all the time but they don't bluff anywhere near enough to compensate, thus making their thin value bets terrible vs. anyone with a clue. We're getting the right odds vs. a range of QQ-88,44 so I'd call expecting to lose most of the time.

This was exactly what I was looking for, thank you. I didn't include 44 in my range and I agree he doesn't raise JJ-QQ here all the time preflop (and probably correct to do so). Against 88-QQ we have just enough equity to call by like 1%. I guess if he ever shows up with a flush draw or 77 then its def a bad fold.

yea after discussing this hand it's a call due to pot-odds, I was forgetting about dem pesky little maff numbers.

he cold calls 7% and you guys arent even mentioning the possibility of 8x in his range.