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3B/folding the flop is terrible
C-Betting more than 2/3 pot on the flop is bad unless you know he calls postflop too much, but we don't know that. I usually bet 1/3 to 1/2 pot on K high dry flops vs most, since there is a FD here I don't mind c-betting a little higher.
Using a pretty standard range of:
Board: Kh 8s 3s
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 48.065% 35.34% 12.72% 7698 2770.50 { AdKd }
Hand 1: 51.935% 39.21% 12.72% 8541 2770.50 { 88, 33, AKs, KQs, QsJs, JsTs, AKo, KQo }
We see we are about even money on the flop. However, we should usually assume that our opponents aren't raising us with FD's or worse Kings (or even pure bluffs) until we have built up some history.
Getting it in vs an unknown is likely bad, so raising flop with the intention of getting it in is likely bad. 3B'ing the flop with the intention of folding turns our hand into a bluff which is ridiculous.
On the turn our equity (using the same range) is as follows:
Board: Kh 8s 3s 6s
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 36.209% 26.24% 09.97% 254 96.50 { AdKd }
Hand 1: 63.791% 53.82% 09.97% 521 96.50 { 88, 33, AKs, KQs, QsJs, JsTs, AKo, KQo }
So we should fold since there is no guarantee that he is DB'ing KQo/s (if it even in his range) but he is with near 100% probability DB'ing the rest of his range. Our equity sinks to a measly 14% if we remove KQo/s from his range, so it's a fold.
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TPTK no good?
, A
, 8
(2 players)
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Originally Posted by StarGrinder
