overcards facing overbet shove, 4b pot - 50nl

villain is 80-30 over 15, no postflop showdown reads, only thing i got is that he seems to like betting and raising a lot.
3better is decent ex 1-2 LAG reg from FTP, 19-17-6 (vpip/pfr/3b).
Flop is close, but a call right?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (8 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG ($26)
UTG+1 ($69.30)
Hero (MP1) ($52.30)
MP2 ($92.20)
CO ($61.90)
Button ($79.45)
SB ($50)
BB ($25)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A, J
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.50, Hero bets $2.25, 3 folds, SB raises to $7.25, 1 fold, UTG+1 calls $6.75, Hero raises to $16, 1 fold, UTG+1 calls $8.75

Flop: ($39.75) 3, 4, 4 (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $53.30 (All-In), Hero calls $36.30 (All-In)

Not sure. How bad do you trust that he spews with worse after the 4b-big-show-of-muscles pre? The question is basically: how often does he do that with pure air?

Originally Posted by daviddem

Not sure. How bad do you trust that he spews with worse after the 4b-big-show-of-muscles pre? The question is basically: how often does he do that with pure air?

lets not forget he can have some amount of air which beats us.

@daven
interested to hear your rationale re 4betting pre. i have some idea but i'd like to hear your reasoning. flop i really can't decide on. at first i thought call, then i thought fold, then i thought call again. after switching 15 times i think i'm slightly inclined toward calling. he will have small and mid pairs a ton here, which we have near enough equity to call against. but i think we'll also see garbage like the more attractive preflop broadway hands - A9-AJ,KJs+,KQo,QJs etc some amount of the time given how spastic villain seems to be.

think we should fold to the 3-bettor, is he bluffing with an 80-30 in the pot? flop is close, I think we will definitely find better spots vs. this guy?

Originally Posted by baudib

think we should fold to the 3-bettor, is he bluffing with an 80-30 in the pot? flop is close, I think we will definitely find better spots vs. this guy?

fwiw, my 3bet range becomes larger in size in BB's spot when i see someone who i know is a solid, positionally aware reg (daven) isoing a huge fish from LP. although, daven would obviously be kicking the shit out of me in this spot by 4betting wider. which he has done here.

also, who's looking for "better spots" in cash games for which we're adequately rolled? not saying your conclusion is right or wrong, but shouldn't we be making all +EV plays vs this guy, and not just waiting for more comfortably +EV situations?

This is a horrendous 4bet

Originally Posted by rpm

interested to hear your rationale re 4betting pre.

Originally Posted by baudib

think we should fold to the 3-bettor, is he bluffing with an 80-30 in the pot? flop is close, I think we will definitely find better spots vs. this guy?

Originally Posted by Deanglow

This is a horrendous 4bet

wow. Interesting. Mostly cos i thought 4betting here wasn't even remotely close. I'll state my reasoning, i would appreciate it if you tear it to pieces cos it sounds like the 4b pre may have been pretty bad.

Ok, i'm 18-14 these days and am obviously isolating fish all day. The 3-bettor knows this (he isn't dumb, and will be regging back up at mid-stakes in a month or two i guess) and is going to see this as an obvious spot to get HU with the fish or just take down the pot pre because:
1 - my iso range is clearly wide here
2 - my fold to 3b is pretty standard (i'm maybe 65% fold, 15/20 on call/4b obviously hugely influenced by sizing, stack size, and position. The 4b is inflated cos i shove vs shortstacks a bunch when they 3b)
3 - the fish limper's range excludes all pocket pairs, all aces, and most kings

so i see it as the blind 3-betting for value vs the fish and as bluff vs me, hoping to get HU where his card and skill advantage will outweigh position. I block a bunch of his strong range = blockers vs AA/AK/JJ and we don't have enough history for him to doubt my 4bets yet i think. I'm happy to get it in pre vs the limper cos i'm way ahead and the 3-bettor is not going to be calling 4bets out of position vs a strongish range, leaving him in shove/fold territory. He doesn't shove light, and has a high-ish fold to 3b for a LAG. FWIW the 3-bettor sees me as an ok winner in these games.

where have i gone wrong here? i'm feeling pretty blind right now...

edit: re reads on the villain who 3bets, i know who he is, he doesn't know who i am. So the reads are not symmetrical

hey you know more about reg-warring than me, that said

SB might be widening his 3-bet range but probably isn't light. Do you think he wants to play a big pot OOP vs. an aggro tard with A2?

You priced yourself in to call SB's shove.

Originally Posted by baudib

SB might be widening his 3-bet range but probably isn't light. Do you think he wants to play a big pot OOP vs. an aggro tard with A2?

now that is a good point.

i forgot our UTG+1 is basically a timebomb. and yeah i would be de-polarising by 3b range here in BB's spot and looking to felt a ton of hands vs the spazz. fwiw, my original comment ("i'd be 3bet bluffing a decent amount in BB's spot") was ignorant of the "seems to like betting and raising" read. i was basically treating UTG as a weak-passive fish.

better spots.

Originally Posted by Deanglow

This is a horrendous 4bet

bad spot to 4b? or bad sizing?
fold or call pre instead?

I think you can make it $12.25 and he'll fold any air and some stuff like 99/AQ