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overbet the nuts on the turn?

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  1. #1
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    Default overbet the nuts on the turn?

    villain is unknown shortstack, first orbit
    overbet shove the turn with stacks this awkward? feels like he's got a flush draw, not sure that i can fold a club river though..

    $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Holdem
    7 Players
    Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

    Stacks:
    UTG ($58.70) 117bb
    UTG+1 ($61.25) 123bb
    MP ($32) 64bb
    daven (CO) ($55.40) 111bb
    BTN ($55.30) 111bb
    SB ($21.55) 43bb
    BB ($32.80) 66bb

    Pre-Flop: ($0.75, 7 players) daven is CO
    3 folds, daven raises to $1.75, 1 fold, SB calls $1.50, 1 fold

    Flop: ($4, 2 players)
    SB checks, daven bets $2.80, SB calls $2.80

    Turn: ($9.60, 2 players)
    SB checks, daven bets $??,
  2. #2
    PokerKing's Avatar
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    If you feel like he's on a flush draw, and he was prepared to call over half pot on the flop, then bet full pot on turn, and see how nuts he is

    I wouls do that, but maybe it's wrong. Probably
    The Time To Act Is Now...
  3. #3
    Renton's Avatar
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    Consider a flop check.

    I don't know why you'd feel particularly that he has a flush draw here. For one, that's an over-simplistic way of reading hands. You need to put him on a range of hands that includes flush draws. Personally on JTx he's probably getting in his flush draws on the flop IMO because many of them are mega nutted with a pair or straight draw to go with.

    I feel like he's got any ten, jack, straight, aces up, AQ/AK, 98 maybe 99/88 with a few weaker flush draws. I don't hate an overbet here, I just think its inferior to a pretty sturdy size bet of between 2/3 and full pot. You'll definitely want to go kind of large here since there are 2 flush draws and a lot of pair-gutters, but overbetting just makes J9 snap fold, maybe even AQ.

    He's only 40bb so don't worry too much about building the maximum size pot here.
  4. #4
    pocketfours's Avatar
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    absolutely no reason to overbet vs shorty


  5. #5
    griffey24's Avatar
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    I see no reason to do anything but make a regular sized bet here.
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  6. #6
    Is it a terrible play to bet small here and entice call?

    My thinking is... If he has a flush draw, you are getting some value for his misses and if he hits your minimizing your loss. Plus you pick up any money that calls with the Jx and maybe catch a check raise bluff.
  7. #7
    OngBonga's Avatar
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    He's got $17 behind hasn't he? He's unlikely to call his draws at that price, even combos. Unless you have some notes that you forgot to tell us about?

    I'd be sizing my turn bet so I can shove river easily and get crying calls from anything with showdown value. $5.85 seems about right.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  8. #8
    OngBonga's Avatar
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    Is x3.5 open standard for 50nl? Seems a bit heavy.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong

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