lol 50bb 1/2 games

Villain is like 46/17

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
7 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG Hero ($103.05)
UTG+1 t0uGhb0Y ($37)
MP yoshmitsu ($100)
CO xwannabex ($129.75)
BTN Y_E_E_E_H_A1 ($37)
SB mbiesheuvel ($28.90)
BB K Money604 ($94.60)

Pre-Flop: ($3, 7 players) Hero is UTG
Hero raises to $5, 5 folds, K Money604 raises to $12, Hero calls $7

Flop: ($25, 2 players)
K Money604 checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($25, 2 players)
K Money604 bets $12, $12 to Hero ($91.05)?

raise

you have a monster hand only 50bb deep against a fish on a draw-filled board.

raise because he's a donk and you have a monster on a drawy board

wtf raise

ez raise against a wild fish running at 46

I posted this hand because my knee-jerk reaction was to raise, and yet I've had two players I respect a lot tell me to call.

Discuss amongst yourselves...

It's a 3bet pot vs a donk. QT is like <5% of their range.

Donk has a G ball here like half the time and would never fold a pair and G ball to a raise.

Calling is real prudent vs such a weak turn bet with half stacks. Plus that board is gross with so many combo draws. I'm interested in learning why a call would be better.

Don't worry about balance vs fish

Originally Posted by Deanglow

Don't worry about balance vs fish

this^

raising is slightly bad vs many players. if we think hes never folding his hand, raising doesnt accomplish much. it would accomplish something only if he would call with weaker hands than he would put many of his chips in w/ on some rivers, and if the chances of him bluffing the river if called on the turn are negligible. The rivers that are potentially scary to him often make your hand not best so if he bets large on those rivers you could fold, thus lowering variance. if he bets very large on a blank river it is also fairly likely he has KK and you could save some money by flatting

Bear in mind I'm pretty new to all this, and still only play 4NL. I'm learning quickly, but more experienced players may very well disagree with everything I'm about to say. With that in mind...

Even if you are 100% convinced he's already beaten your set with the straight, you have 10 outs to a full house or better, giving you 3.6:1 odds of winning. Raising to around quarter pot would be +EV every time, as it would give you 4:1 pot odds if he called (and you steal the pot if he doesn't).

The only hands that would scupper this are KK and JJ. He could well be on these as he 3bet pre-flop. He may have been hoping to checkraise you on the turn, and his $12 river bet could just be a low value bet if he thinks that your checking through the turn meant that you were unwilling to invest too much more into the hand.

Without a prior history on the villain, I'd be reluctant to raise the turn.

I would use almost all my time to play and on the last second push allin. There is one thing clear and its not to give cards for free. Youre holding trips but there is a straight posibility with a flush draw. If he has the straight the your drawing dead and hoping for the full house but its unlikely.

Originally Posted by Acemonk

I would use almost all my time to play and on the last second push allin. There is one thing clear and its not to give cards for free. Youre holding trips but there is a straight posibility with a flush draw. If he has the straight the your drawing dead and hoping for the full house but its unlikely.

More "Jedi Mind Trick shit!"

I agree with calling here for the reasons nutsinho stated.

so do we jam any spade or heart river and expect AK/AA to call?

Originally Posted by Micro2Macro

so do we jam any spade or heart river and expect AK/AA to call?

I think this is actually a spot where we aren't necessarily super happy to get stacks in. Keeping in mind it's a 3bet pot, his fishy stats, check on the flop and small bet on the turn despite two flush draws on the board it seems like we are looking at a pretty polarized range. That range is essentially hands that we lose to KK, JJ, hands we beat that have equity: weirdly played AA and AK (maybe QQ?), and bluffs (who knows how many). Sure if you look strictly at combos we have more combos that we beat in that range but that also assumes that this fish doesn't bet AA or AK on the flop ever which is probably unlikely at best.

I think you basically have to c/c both streets unless you could miraculously find a hero fold on the river if it is a really bad card.

Originally Posted by Donachello

I think this is actually a spot where we aren't necessarily super happy to get stacks in. Keeping in mind it's a 3bet pot, his fishy stats, check on the flop and small bet on the turn despite two flush draws on the board it seems like we are looking at a pretty polarized range. That range is essentially hands that we lose to KK, JJ, hands we beat that have equity: weirdly played AA and AK (maybe QQ?), and bluffs (who knows how many). Sure if you look strictly at combos we have more combos that we beat in that range but that also assumes that this fish doesn't bet AA or AK on the flop ever which is probably unlikely at best.

I think you basically have to c/c both streets unless you could miraculously find a hero fold on the river if it is a really bad card.

I disagree with this as I see fish in these games almost always checking the flop with AK/AA then betting about this size on turn, so when I advocated raising the turn it was because I was weighting his range towards just that and over half the deck on the river kills our action vs that range. They could however take the same line with KK/JJ though. I think the delay cbet here is almost never a bluff (possibly a semi-bulff with AQ) so we are basically looking at top pair + on the turn.

I agree raising is bad vs most players but I felt like it would be ideal vs this specific player assuming he plays AA/AK like this nearly always, though it may be a false assumption, and we can't exclude KK/JJ from his range so I think this would lead towards calling and re-evaluating the river a better option as nutsinho stated.

Is it wrong of me that my only thought about this hand is 50bb Stars tables suck and I wish they would die a long death so fish would be back in 100bb games? ... Sorry 'bout that, carry on.

I call and try to get the money in on the river.

The pot to stack size ratio plus this villain doesn't seem to be such that we can easily get away from this. I guess there are cards that could come where I wouldn't rush to get my money in the middle, but most cards I would want to do just that and even the scare cards, I'd be tempted to go for "thin value" and might hate myself if I got raised, but would begrudgingly call still. 3 bet pot with a set, it'll take very special conditions for me to fold. But I have leaks just as much as the next guy