lay down this set to a dynamite read?

im posting this HH for a different purpose than normal. results are included.


Bodog 50 fullring 6handed

i am MP with 66 with 50$. EP has me covered.

EP raises 5 blinds, i call, blind calls.

flop is JT6 two spades, blind checks, EP bets small, i raise pot, blind folds, EP takes his time then minraises, i put him on a set of jacks or tens but cant imagine how i'd lay my hand down so i call hoping he has aces or kings or queens and is playing them like they're stronger than he normally would and hope he pushes turn.

turn is offsuit K, EP makes an obvious value bet, i push for a few more chips hoping it's AA and not a weird and lucky KK, EP instacalls and shows JJ for a bigger set.

river is 6 and i make up for that time my set of nines got one outered by 44 20k hands ago.


anyways, im posting this because i feel like in some circumstances i read my opponents very, very well. this is one of them. this and the previous time i flopped set under set i put villian on a bigger set due to bet sizing and click 'tells'. i was right.

im wondering what you guys think about laying down a small set on an uncoordinated board because you trust (or at least want to trust) your read that your opp has a bigger set?

it always depends...

someone on FTR said in a raised pot, if you can beat AA then play like u got the nuts. It's worked well for me so far

everybody overestimates their "reading ability"... we tend to remember the times we were right

Think about all the times you put someone on a hand and you're wrong. Then compare it to all the times you put someone on a hand and you're right. See what I mean?

BTW, if you have a strong read on someone, then by all means go by it. But what you are describing is not a read, but more of a feeling or intuition. Do not confuse the two.

i have never folded a set on a board like this.

Don't feel bad - I've had similar reads before - even in limped pots where I'm oversetted. I still paid off every time in some respect (mostly stacking off but called on the river a couple times instead of pushing).
Sets are just too good to fold (when the board is not 4-flushed or KQJTx etc.) ...and on draw-heavy flops like this one you're just gonna pay off JJ/TT.

Originally Posted by freechus9

Think about all the times you put someone on a hand and you're wrong. Then compare it to all the times you put someone on a hand and you're right. See what I mean?

BTW, if you have a strong read on someone, then by all means go by it. But what you are describing is not a read, but more of a feeling or intuition. Do not confuse the two.

what exactly is a read, then?

i put EP on JJ or TT because of how i 'read' his line.

would you lay down JT or AJ? or AK or KJ on the turn?