I'm crazy sometimes... another TT hand

Thoughts? Just sat down. Sorry, no reads. I thought it was +EV so I called. Easy fold?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

MP1 ($224.05)
MP2 ($15.95)
MP3 ($39.50)
CO ($231.55)
Button ($32.40)
Hero ($100)
BB ($173.25)
UTG ($98.50)
UTG+1 ($53.80)

Preflop: Hero is SB with T, T.
2 folds, MP1 calls $1, 1 fold, MP3 raises to $3, 2 folds, Hero calls $2.50, BB calls $2, MP1 calls $2.

Flop: ($12) 9, 3, 9 (4 players)
Hero bets $8, BB folds, MP1 folds, MP3 calls $8.

Turn: ($28) K (2 players)
Hero checks, MP3 checks.

River: ($28) 7 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP3 bets $28.5 (All-In), Hero calls $28.50.

Final Pot: $85

....

He has at least a 9

Well...he knows for damn sure that you don't have a 9 ... and pretty much that you don't have a K either...so I'd put you on a pair somewhere between TT and QQ on this one.

A nine would mostly slowplay or checkraise the flop...and would certainly bet the turn.

Either he is going for fold equity from hell with nothing (or a pair lower than 99), or he has KK/99/77, maybe AK/KQ.

I don't call this - you could bluff me here.

I understand that you called because he didn't value bet the river...definitely suspicious as you appear to have given up on the hand after the flop (not a bad line). So it's not unlikely that he puts you on air and is trying to buy it.

You think that a 9 always leads out on the turn?

Against terrible players, I like to look at some c-bet sizes before committing more chips here.

Originally Posted by Fnord

Against terrible players, I like to look at some c-bet sizes before committing more chips here.

Is the idea that if you let them bet, the size of their bet will broadcast their hand to you, but if you bet out yourself, they'll just call and you'll obtain no information about their hand?

While it's true that horrible players often like to call here in position with overcards, I think leading is the cheapest way to get info in a spot like this, push people off a hand (overcards) with air, and to get money into the pot quickly with a huge hand. I still often check to the preflop raiser, but I've also been trying to lead into them occasionally with a wide range of hands. Something closer to a PSB would probably be more useful.

My thought process during the hand went something like this:

Literally JUST sat down so my only real 'read' is that most people that are 40BB deep at NL100 aren't very good. I have never played with villain before, and I didn't have any stats on him.

His preflop raise coupled with simple probability says he is very unlikely to have a 9, but if somebody does, I want to find out early. I lead, only preflop raiser calls. I assume he is a bad player, so I think he has something stupid like overcards.

Turn is a K, and you can say.. how often does he have Kx here? And while it wouldn't make much sense, the only card that would scare me more would be an A. If he had an overpair, he had me beat all along. So I check and see what happens.. probably willing to call a small bet.

River is 7d, completing no draws, and helping no other hand besides 77. If he has a hand like JJ-QQ, he's probably trying to see a cheap showdown, maybe making a thin value bet. I don't think this villain plays Kx like this here.. so I'm really thinking something like Ax.. maybe AQ/AJ/AT type hands. I thought for sure I make the right call here one out of three times.

He had .

Remember

horrible players often like to call here in position with overcards