Drew's 1-1 V.2.2

Hand 1)

Villain has stats of 16/15/6 over a large sample. My logic is that he probably will fold the flop without a set or AK and maaaaaaybe AQ. Plus, I look like a set so I can probably push him off of anything other than a set. Good? Not good?

No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG ($43.50)
UTG+1 ($100)
MP1 ($203.65)
MP2 ($101)
MP3 ($100)
Hero (CO) ($106.55)
Button ($111.55)
SB ($35.50)
BB ($101)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 5, 5
3 folds, MP2 bets $2.50, 1 fold, Hero calls $2.50, 3 folds

Flop: ($6.50) 6, A, 2 (2 players)
MP2 bets $3.80, Hero raises $12, MP2 calls $8.20

Turn: ($30.50) 9 (2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero bets $16, MP2 calls $16

River: ($62.50) 8 (2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero bets $76.05 (All-In), 1 fold

Total pot: $62.50


Hand 2)

Villain is a 20/14/4 reg over a large sample. I think it's pretty hard to have a diamond here. I'm about 95% sure he doesn't.

No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (8 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG ($214.65)
UTG+1 ($100)
Hero (MP1) ($130.55)
MP2 ($101)
CO ($114.90)
Button ($50)
SB ($100)
BB ($138.35)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K, A
2 folds, Hero bets $4, 4 folds, BB raises $10, Hero calls $7

Flop: ($22.50) 9, Q, A (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($22.50) K (2 players)
BB bets $18, Hero calls $18

River: ($58.50) 3 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $30, BB calls $30

Total pot: $118.50

h1 you rep nothing so if he's even slightly suspicious or not a wtfbad handreader he's never folding an ace to this line.

h2 bet flop -- he's not 3betting pre to c/f this board. if he had air he'd c-bet. check back river -- what are you trying to get him to fold on the river that you're not ahead of? sets and JT are a pretty narrow part of his range.

Originally Posted by d0zer

h1 you rep nothing so if he's even slightly suspicious or not a wtfbad handreader he's never folding an ace to this line.

h2 bet flop -- he's not 3betting pre to c/f this board. if he had air he'd c-bet. check back river -- what are you trying to get him to fold on the river that you're not ahead of? sets and JT are a pretty narrow part of his range.

I disagree with your analysis of hand 1 in that I do rep something. One of the two sets.

In hand 2, what weaker hand check calls my bet on the flop? Maybe KK, of which there are only 3 combos, and even then it's rare he plays KK that way.

As played, I'm trying to get AK and sets to fold on the river.

Originally Posted by BankItDrew

I disagree with your analysis of hand 1 in that I do rep something. One of the two sets.

are you getting cute with me you cheeky SOB?

Originally Posted by d0zer

are you getting cute with me you cheeky SOB?

No, I'm not.

Reg tag nits at the low stakes will fold it a high % of the time vs enough aggression on this dry of a flop.

It's much less likely he'd fold vs this line on a A98 double suited sort of flop, for example.

1 Why would you bet 16 on the turn and overbet the river?

2 Bet the flop, call turn, check riv. You can almost never have a diamond.

Oh yeah and probably fold preflop in the first one

Originally Posted by Deanglow

1 Why would you bet 16 on the turn and overbet the river?

It looks like I want a call on the turn and the river is now a larger ship bluff. I enjoy building pots with the idea of bluffing at them in the future. Consider it a 2012 play.

Originally Posted by Deanglow

Oh yeah and probably fold preflop in the first one

I don't understand this. In 2011 we don't setmine anymore?

Originally Posted by Deanglow

Oh yeah and probably fold preflop in the first one

wow, i thought calling pre here is pretty standard.

hand 1 i think reaaaaally depends on how villain perceives you. i'd rather have something like KQ/QJ/TJ with a backdoor flush draw on the flop if i was to plan to raise flop and fire two more here. i seriously doubt villain will fold any of AQ+ to a flop raise which reps only 6 combos (assuming you 3bet AK a decent amount). as regards our turn sizing, do you think it's better to set up stacks for ~PSB river shove or slightly less, or do we benefit from polarising our river range (by setting up slightly >PSB shove on the river)? the whole hand seems pretty marginal to me. but i haven't played FR for a while and regs seem to give far less credit in 6m.

hand 2 is pretty strange. i'd personally have bet flop and turn. as played i'd be checking back the river. his large turn sizing seems to suggest that he flopped pretty damn well and checked hoping you'd take a stab - i imagine he would cbet all non-paired hands. my best guess at his hand when he calls river is AA (edit: or KK)

Originally Posted by rpm

as regards our turn sizing, do you think it's better to set up stacks for ~PSB river shove or slightly less, or do we benefit from polarising our river range (by setting up slightly >PSB shove on the river)?

Even 'pro 100nl regs' are not good enough to remember how you set up a river shove last time, balancing is overrated in this situation. My idea was to have a slightly larger than psb on river, hoping it would increase FE.

Look in your database and see if you're winning by cold calling 22-55 in various scenarios.

sorry - i didn't mean in terms of balance - i meant in a vacuum, if we are putting our stack in on the river damn close to 100% of the time, which turn sizing gives us the most river fold equity? i actually don't mind your sizing as played. i was just interested to hear what you/others thought about setting up a "standard" ~PSB shove as opposed to setting up a more polarising river SPR when our goal is to take the line which gets the most folds possible

ps cool thread idea. only small crit is that you leave the "total pot" figure in the HH so we can tell which hand you won and which lost.

Hand 2 it is nearly, if not completely, impossible for you to have a diamond.

Originally Posted by Deanglow

Look in your database and see if you're winning by cold calling 22-55 in various scenarios.

I'll do that when I get HEM2. Not sure how to check it in HEM1.

Originally Posted by rpm

ps cool thread idea. only small crit is that you leave the "total pot" figure in the HH so we can tell which hand you won and which lost.

It's a work in progress...lol

ty

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1) I fold preflop unless there're some donks left to act.

Your postflop analysis is grievously incorrect. He will not fold a pair to your flop raise, other than maybe 33-55. You also only look like two sets since you probably cannot have AA. He may decide you wouldn't call preflop with 22 and only put you on one set. Additionally, your range (a lot of broadways and midcards) plainly misses this board so he has cause for much suspicion when you take such a strong line, and more suspicion when you don't set up stacks on the turn to shove river. It looks like a desperate afterthought bluff.

2) He's quite likely to call a bet on the flop so it seems wasteful not to oblige him. I don't hate the check though since its such a crappy board for your hand vs his perceived 3-betting range vs mp.

Pretty weird hand as played out. I find it interesting that it is 100% impossible for you to have the Queen of diamonds, and on that basis I'd have a hard time trying to bluff here.

How might you feel about a river ship?

Well as I said you really cannot have the nuts there, so a nuts-or-nothing size like all in would not be very good. Your best bet is a size that reps value betting any diamond. I still would just give up though I think.