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Bluff this river? 100NL 3b Pot

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  1. #1

    Default Bluff this river? 100NL 3b Pot

    Villain is 16/10 tagg reg who I haven't seen get out of line. 3b only 4b% of the time. I'm probably seen as pretty loose preflop but not sure how he perceives me postflop. I decided to flat IP since we are 150ish bb deep.

    He has a 3b CB of 100% (8 sample size) so I expected him to fire this board all the time. I expected him to C/F and give up all non AA/AK/KK hands on the turn plus a lot of scare cards can come. On the river he only has AA/AK and never a flush. Do I bluff? If so what bet sizing?

    No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) -

    saw flop

    Hero (MP3) ($197.38)
    CO ($136.43)
    Button ($106.50)
    SB ($147.61)
    BB ($115.58)
    UTG ($196.50)
    UTG+1 ($278.66)
    MP1 ($158.92)
    MP2 ($26.38)

    Preflop: Hero is MP3 with ,
    4 folds, Hero bets $3, 2 folds, SB raises $9.50, 1 fold, Hero calls $7

    Flop: ($21) , , (2 players)
    SB bets $14, Hero calls $14

    Turn: ($49) (2 players)
    SB checks, Hero bets $28.50, SB calls $28.50

    River: ($106) (2 players)
    SB checks and has $95.11 behind.
  2. #2
    Deanglow's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Well if his range is KQs, AK, AA, QdQx, possibly KQo or KJs then it seems like a bad idea
  3. #3
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    i think river is no bet have some showdown value of Ad x but you also can see sometimes 99-qq...check is the best option in my opinion
  4. #4
    OngBonga's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Quote Originally Posted by postiga View Post
    but you also can see sometimes 99-qq
    If this is true, then surely this makes bluffing better?

    I'm shit at combos. Is it 6 AA and 6 AK? If I think this guy is always folding his AA to a shove, this is what I do. Having said that, I don't think there's many people always folding AA here. So I prob meekly give up and check behind. But I don't frequent these stakes, I'm just throwing my salt in because I read the thread.

    I don't think he ever flips over 99-QQ at river, by the way.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  5. #5
    I would not bet in this spot because he is either trapping you or checking because he has a hand but does not know whether or not he is ahead.
  6. #6
    pocketfours's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Lighting sweet moneys on fire.
    I would def bet

  7. #7
    Yeah I feel like they're gonna just check/call
  8. #8
    I say just check and see the hand.
    There is still a good chance you are ahead here
  9. #9
    id check also, unless you know the player
  10. #10
    Fnord's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2003
    Silicon Valley
    He can't have QQ/JJ here?
  11. #11
    pocketfours's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Lighting sweet moneys on fire.
    I wouldn't worry too much about what he has. What do WE have against a tag on this board? Let him worry about that instead.

  12. #12

    Default check ftw

    i say def check, your hand has some value.
  13. #13
    caddie444's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2007
    constantly UTG
    Not a huge fan of flatting pre

    there is basically zero chance our hand is good otr... if you're seen as loose preflop like you say I'd just giveup (nit here)

    Also I would bet turn slightly more

    Don't complain; Just work harder - Randy Pausch (The Last Lecture)
  14. #14
    maybe if he wasn't such a nit
    Last edited by TheLongGrind; 12-01-2013 at 01:56 PM.
  15. #15
    $77 on river
    Playing big pots at small stakes.
  16. #16
    check is good option in this case
  17. #17
    oskar's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    in ur accounts... confiscating ur funz
    I fucking love the $77 bet. This thread just single-handedly made me miss this game. He has to fold AA, right? So we have to bet. #disregardmyopinion #outoftheloop.

    edit: sorry just realized this was bumped by a freeroller XD
    Last edited by oskar; 10-29-2014 at 03:54 AM.
    The strengh of a hero is defined by the weakness of his villains.
  18. #18
    Heh I remember this hand, back when I used to play FR. $77 sounds perfect.

    Results: I chickened out and checked back. Villain won with AA. Don't remember if he had ace of diamond.

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