Back to 5/10

Villain is a pretty good 15/12 with 3.3% 3bet. I've seen him bluffraise the flop against me once this session and raise the flop two other times and I folded. He doesn't play much so I think this is our first big pot.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $10.00 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

CO ($985)
Button ($1158)
SB ($1299)
BB ($1175)
UTG ($1000)
Hero (UTG+1) ($1816)
MP1 ($1292.75)
MP2 ($1015)
MP3 ($1386.75)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with K, J
1 fold, Hero bets $30, 4 folds, Button calls $30, 2 folds

Flop: ($75) A, 5, 3 (2 players)
Hero bets $50, Button calls $50

Turn: ($175) 2 (2 players)
Hero bets $130, Button calls $130

River: ($435) A (2 players)
Hero bets $350, Button raises to $948 (All-In), Hero has $598

interesting to see the effect that 3x opens have on multi-street bet sizing.
this is typically a fold for me from UTG+1, and turn i like a bigger bet.

on the flop you can't eliminate sets cos flush draws are such a tiny part of your range with Ac on the board, and if he's decent then he knows it. Turn is interesting, he's likely raising sets here unless he's the 44paranoid type, so that puts him on 44/AK way more than 33/55. On the river he's shoving AK and 44 as well as rare (cos of turn play) 33/55 so I think you got yourself a river bet-call

Originally Posted by daven

Turn is interesting, he's likely raising sets here unless he's the 44paranoid type, so that puts him on 44/AK way more than 33/55. On the river he's shoving AK and 44

for real?

Originally Posted by nutsinho

Originally Posted by daven

Turn is interesting, he's likely raising sets here unless he's the 44paranoid type, so that puts him on 44/AK way more than 33/55. On the river he's shoving AK and 44

for real?

gut response = scared of the flush draw. i don't see sets calling the turn here as often as raising it.

But now i have to think more and yeah, ok, hero's range has a bunch of AK/AQ in it and only a small subset have Kc or Qc meaning that flatting a set here makes more sense than i initially thought. Especially cos villain can realise that he looks like a flush if he raises = the downside of calling cbets with sets on twotone boards. And op stated that villain is good. Means he realises this a lot more quickly than i do. Wonder if this is a further argument for a turn bet closer to pot?

He is shoving AK and 44 like never

I think if you think he is capable of flatting a set on the flop you should fold. Otherwise I would call.

i think 9/10 regs can flat a set on that flop

Sure would be nice to have position here. That turned club draw could have a set flatting IP looking for a showdown or that miracle paired board. If he's been overly aggro I'm insta-calling. Without doing the math I'd except to be ~60/40 favorite against his range (AA,22,33,44,55,AK,AQ + combo draws and other random shit). If he flips over the nuts then NH to him.

Originally Posted by Deanglow

i think 9/10 regs can flat a set on that flop

Yeah I agree, I should have said if you think he is capable of flatting with any regularity. Also, despite many players being able to bluff here, some players just won't do it. Which is a player based decision. I guess it really depends on who the villain is and what you think of them.

call
This is awful suck out if he has a full house
I think he has AK here

I think you guys are over-thinking this hand quite a bit. We're getting nearly 3-1 its hard to come up with many combos that we lose to that makes me want to fold.

Even if 33, 55 and AA make up the majority of his range, then we only have to find 3 combos of hands that he would have in this spot that aren't boats for our call to be breakeven. I can see him shoving a worse flush at least 2 combos worth and then 1/6 with AK seems fairly reasonable. I guess he could just not shove with QcTc, Tc9c, and 9c8c but most of your perceived range has an Ace in it with few boats.

I would think you would play AK and AQ fairly similarly on this board.

i just play microsteaks..but i feel like our nut flush is under repped here. villain could be doing this with many hands we have crushed.
as played, we have the odds and im calling.

also just a question, why the 3x utg+1 with kj?

also just a question, why the 3x utg+1 with kj?

To balance your range

looks like he's got A2, or 22.

or a lesser flush and he didnt want to scare your Ax away on the turn (since you folded to him a few times earlier)... you look like you have trips to him so he'd be pushing his flush as well.

tough spot but probably a crying call.