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50NL: TP on river vs TAG

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  1. #1
    jimmy44's Avatar
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    Default 50NL: TP on river vs TAG

    Villain is 14/11 TAG (seems to c-bet around 60% and 2barril 50%) over 500 hands.

    No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (8 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

    Hero (CO) ($50)
    Button ($37.85)
    SB ($36.10)
    BB ($50)
    UTG ($20.40)
    UTG+1 ($57.60)
    MP1 ($50)
    MP2 ($26.25)

    Preflop: Hero is CO with J, Q
    2 folds, MP1 bets $1.75, 1 fold, Hero calls $1.75, 3 folds

    Flop: ($4.25) Q, 2, 9 (2 players)
    MP1 bets $3, Hero calls $3

    Turn: ($10.25) 9 (2 players)
    MP1 bets $5, Hero calls $5

    River: ($20.25) 5 (2 players)
    MP1 bets $5.50, Hero ???

    My image is TAG.
    My plan on the turn was to call and call a 1/2 bet on river on a non club and non K/8, but I'm having some doubts now.
    Villain range to get on the river is KK/AA, AQ, KQ, AJcc, ATcc, JT, AKcc, KJcc, KTcc, as we would bet stronger (turn and/or river) with a nuts (or near nuts) hand.

    Here's pokerstove:

    Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

    47 games 0.005 secs 9,400 games/sec

    Board: Qc 9c 2d 9s 5d
    Dead:

    equity win tie pots won pots tied
    Hand 0: 40.426% 40.43% 00.00% 19 0.00 { QsJs }
    Hand 1: 59.574% 59.57% 00.00% 28 0.00 { KK+, AcKc, AQs, AcJc, AcTc, KQs, KcJc, JTs, AQo, ATo, KQo }

    Is my range too loose?
  2. #2
    bikes's Avatar
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    hero calls and can only call. you can tighten that range a fair bit and its still a call
  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by bikes View Post
    hero calls and can only call. you can tighten that range a fair bit and its still a call
    ^
  4. #4
    bikes's Avatar
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    Board: Qc 2d 9s 9c 5h
    Dead:

    equity win tie pots won pots tied
    Hand 0: 25.806% 16.13% 09.68% 5 3.00 { QsJs }
    Hand 1: 74.194% 64.52% 09.68% 20 3.00 { AdAs, AhAs, KdKs, KhKs, JcJh, JdJs, JhJs, TdTs, ThTs, KcJc, AQs, KQs, QJs, JcTc, AQo, KQo, QJo }


    this is a range i gave him which i think might be a tad more accurate. i discounted AA and KK some because i most 50nl TAGs would bet bigger her. I added some JJ and TT as blocking bets because most 50nl regs probably are not comfortable c/cing here. I also dont think he bluffs everytime he misses clubs so the only ones I included are KJ and JT because those are the most likely club hands he has without showdown value.

    as you can see it's still a call.
  5. #5
    If you're calling the turn here, folding the river is retarded and raising is suicide


    Don't complain; Just work harder - Randy Pausch (The Last Lecture)
  6. #6
    It's a spot that is underrated as terrible and you can really only avoid being owned by AQ by folding pre
  7. #7
    Renton's Avatar
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    It's possible/plausible that this is a fold, but unfortunately poker isn't a game of complete information and you cannot be folding for 1/5th pot bets with top pair on superbrick rivers.

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