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50NL: bottom set vs nit (on flush board)

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  1. #1
    jimmy44's Avatar
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    Default 50NL: bottom set vs nit (on flush board)

    Villain was 11/6/2 over 700 hands.
    His WST was something like 28%
    My fealing was that he could can enough with AA/KK (and maybe AQ).
    If he c/r then clearly he has a flush, even if only AKss is in his range.
    So his range is AA/KK/half AQ/AKss/QdQh(only 1 combo as he should 3bet it on the flop often enough)/8d8h/8h8s(2 combos as he would not always raise 88 here).
    So we are very often in front. How much to bet?



    No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

    UTG ($53.85)
    UTG+1 ($109.60)
    Hero (MP1) ($50)
    MP2 ($76.25)
    MP3 ($52)
    CO ($50)
    Button ($50)
    SB ($52.50)
    BB ($92.40)

    Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 2, 2
    1 fold, UTG+1 bets $1.50, Hero calls $1.50, 6 folds

    Flop: ($3.75) 2, 8, Q (2 players)
    UTG+1 bets $1.50, Hero raises $5.50, UTG+1 calls $4

    Turn: ($14.75) J (2 players)
    UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $9, UTG+1 calls $9

    River: ($32.75) 6 (2 players)
    UTG+1 checks, Hero bets ???
  2. #2
    bikes's Avatar
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    Villian never has AQ. I'd ship it in here and feel pretty happy about it.
  3. #3
    This is a fold preflop

    as played he has barely any flushes in his range ( maybe even only 1 combo) and his hand looks exactly like KK, AA

    @ Bikes I wouldn't say never


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  4. #4
    bikes's Avatar
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    oh forgot pre is abso spewtastic
  5. #5
    setmining with deuces for 3x is a no go?
    Current Goal: Breaking 50NL
    Wish me luck!!!


    Check my profile for my personal poker blog!
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  6. #6
    ^ in this spot yes

    Try to figure out why before I tell you


    Don't complain; Just work harder - Randy Pausch (The Last Lecture)
  7. #7
    Obviously bet and pre is terrible ldo, so is 66
  8. #8
    jimmy44's Avatar
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    OK, I agree pre is no good.

    Quote Originally Posted by Deanglow View Post
    Obviously bet and pre is terrible ldo, so is 66
    I don't get this? LDO?
    If 66 is no good either, what is the minimum you'd call here? 88+?
  9. #9
    bikes's Avatar
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    I prolly fold everything 99- in this spot JJ- against some regs and certain tables
  10. #10
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    pre should be a 88+ AQs AKo ish range at the widest. I might call some worse hands if there are tons of donks.

    I like a small bet on the river. You are liable to fold out many worse hands if you shove here imo. But i wouldn't worry about being behind, you lose to only 88/AQ/AsKs and possibly another flush or two that a 11/6 decided to open pre, stubborn set of jacks.
  11. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by Renton View Post
    you lose to only 88/QQ/AsKs and possibly another flush or two that a 11/6 decided to open pre, stubborn set of jacks.
    fyp and agree with preflop range as well as relatively smaller bet on river


    Don't complain; Just work harder - Randy Pausch (The Last Lecture)
  12. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by caddie444 View Post
    ^ in this spot yes

    Try to figure out why before I tell you
    Uh is it because theres so many to act behind and so we are more likely to be squeezed off our hand pre?

    I cant see any other reason (but i play micro stakes), and I would think people squeezing UTG/UTG+1 opens is uncommon.

    And if 77+ is acceptable, what makes those mid pp's much better vs a squeeze?

    If its not because we are vulnerable to this play, then please tell me why :>
  13. #13
    good reasoning, im still curious
    Current Goal: Breaking 50NL
    Wish me luck!!!


    Check my profile for my personal poker blog!
    Constructive criticism welcome!
    -looking for comments as I post my daily battles/struggles through 50NL full ring cash games!

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  14. #14
    Value bet or ship it depending on what you feel he will do. I would value bet here believing that I am way ahead. He is only in for a third of his stack so shipping might scare off 2 pair, tptk, or over pair. Bet 14-19 dollars on river.
  15. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by mbiz View Post
    Uh is it because theres so many to act behind and so we are more likely to be squeezed off our hand pre?

    I cant see any other reason (but i play micro stakes), and I would think people squeezing UTG/UTG+1 opens is uncommon.

    And if 77+ is acceptable, what makes those mid pp's much better vs a squeeze?

    If its not because we are vulnerable to this play, then please tell me why :>
    D-load Renton's Poobah Vid here:

    http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/96...-video-895200/

    and 34 min into the first session listen to him talk about a preflop spot with 77 in mp, sums it up nicely.


    Don't complain; Just work harder - Randy Pausch (The Last Lecture)

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