50n: Flopped set in 3b pot, possible oversets?

This is one that's really been bothering me from last night as to whether or not my course of action was correct.

OK, so we're 7 handed sitting in the CO. We are 18/18/0 after 11 hands. We're 1/2 ATS. BB is 36/9/0 over 11 hands, AFq is 75 that's about it. Nothing really of note, after all only 11 hands but he doesn't appear to be a reg and given I've got 50k hands at this level, I would likely have had hands on him or recognized him.

PF I make a pretty standard raise and BB 3bets. At this point, I know I'm likely looking at something in the neighborhood of TT+, AK. So I'm essentially set mining and I would agree that folding to the 3bet would be prudent. Nonetheless, I see the flop and viola! However, villain says that it hit him hard too. I don't think the draws really matter at this point given the range I set for him PF. If you want to include AQs, that would come into play but we're ahead of that at the moment. I would say his range at this point is AA, KK, JJ, AK. I'm not sure QQ would be betting there so I think we can consider taking it out. It's kind of split, I think as to whether we're facing an overpair/tptk or overset. This reeks of rockets to me, but there are a few other hands in his range that make total sense.

I'm lost on how to proceed...

Absolute/UB Cereus No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (7 handed) - Absolute/UB Cereus Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

Button ($13.30)
SB ($49)
BB ($96)
UTG ($12.80)
MP1 ($97.20)
MP2 ($42.59)
Hero (CO) ($49.25)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 9, 9
3 folds, Hero bets $2, 2 folds, BB raises to $6.25, Hero calls $4.25

Flop: ($12.75) 9, K, J (2 players)
BB bets $12.75

Combinatorics FTW

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

23,760 games 0.005 secs 4,752,000 games/sec

Board: 9c Kc Jh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 70.783% 70.59% 00.20% 16771 47.00 { 9h9s }
Hand 1: 29.217% 29.02% 00.20% 6895 47.00 { KK+, JJ, AKs, AKo }

This is an easy raise for value, just CIB and get it in.

Note the dance. This is crucial.

Originally Posted by kdawgy80

, I see the flop and viola!

play us a tune dawg!

and there is a lot of merit to raising the flop

i think caddie's ranges and analysis are spot on. basically, he has AK and AA enough to outweigh the possible combinations of sets in his range. assuming he never folds an overpair or tptk in a 3bet pot, raising with intention of getting it in is +EV.

Originally Posted by daven

play us a tune dawg!

D'oh!

Cool, thanks for the help all. I feel better about my action as this hand was bothering me. Maybe it's just one of those that is warped when you focus on the results and not how you got there.



And just for the hell of it, here's the spoiler:












Absolute/UB Cereus No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (7 handed) - Absolute/UB Cereus Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop | saw showdown

Button ($13.30)
SB ($49)
BB ($96)
UTG ($12.80)
MP1 ($97.20)
MP2 ($42.59)
Hero (CO) ($49.25)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 9, 9
3 folds, Hero bets $2, 2 folds, BB raises to $6.25, Hero calls $4.25

Flop: ($12.75) 9, K, J (2 players)
BB bets $12.75, Hero raises to $30.50, BB raises to $89.75 (All-In), Hero calls $12.50 (All-In)

Turn: ($98.75) 3 (2 players, 2 all-in)

River: ($98.75) 9 (2 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: $98.75 | Rake: $3.50

Results:
BB had J, J (full house, Jacks over nines).
Hero had 9, 9 (four of a kind, nines).
Outcome: Hero won $190.50

haha wow nice suckout. but results are irrelevant here. getting it in on this flop vs the range of hands we put villain on is +EV imo. even if his range is exclusively JJ,KK,AA:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 46.279% 45.88% 00.40% 16353 141.00 { 99 }
Hand 1: 53.721% 53.32% 00.40% 19005 141.00 { KK+, JJ }

it looks pretty damn close to breakeven given the potsize on the flop (i dont know how to work out the precise math but roughly 1/8th of the effective stack went in pre and he only has a 7% edge). and it gets better with every combo of AK we add into the range.

damn, you must have jumped a little bit when the river hit huh?

good play..

Originally Posted by caddie444

Combinatorics FTW

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

23,760 games 0.005 secs 4,752,000 games/sec

Board: 9c Kc Jh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 70.783% 70.59% 00.20% 16771 47.00 { 9h9s }
Hand 1: 29.217% 29.02% 00.20% 6895 47.00 { KK+, JJ, AKs, AKo }

This is an easy raise for value, just CIB and get it in.

no

Don't be results oriented. I'm a little meh on calling the 3bet pre without too much info but whatever. 9's can be played for a little more than a set and you have position.

Originally Posted by Micro2Macro

no

you shove?

I think 99 still has some post flop playability against a 3bet from the BB.

And I like reraising his cbet on the flop, just cause if you call there are so many cards that kill action.

Originally Posted by caddie444

you shove?

yeh

shove>minraise. CiB is a min re-raise not a minraise.

Listen to your better self pre (aka fold)

Originally Posted by Numbr2intheWorld

Listen to your better self pre (aka fold)

+1

was going to mention this earlier but forgot :S

lol shove

Also I think vs most huge donks you can setmine in these spots ip. Especially with a pair as strong as 99 cause you do get to sd and win from time to time.